Boise State Football: 3 Keys for a Win over Air Force

The Boise State Broncos take on the Falcons of Air Force Saturday on the famed blue turf of Bronco Stadium. 

It will be the first Mountain West Conference home game for Chris Petersen and his bunch of Broncos. 

Air Force is currently 3-3 on the year and 0-2 in the Mountain West, losing to TCU and San Diego State.  However, they are a decent team with a potent offense. 

The Broncos are undefeated and coming off a 63-13 shellacking of Colorado State in the first-ever Mountain West Conference game for BSU.

The experts have the Broncos as 31-point favorites over the Falcons, which seems like a high number to me. 

Will the Broncos cover that spread?  Will they even win?  Let's take a look at the three keys to a victory for the Blue and Orange. 

Key 1: Play Disciplined Assignment Football

Air Force is famous for its triple option running game.  It is a very tricky offense to defend.  It is not a matter of will the Falcons move the ball, but of how much they will move it. 

The Falcons average 336 yards rushing per contest, which ranks third in the country.  They also score an average of nearly 36 points per game, and even in their losses they have ran the ball well.

So, how do the Broncos shut them down? 

Well, you don't really shut them down, you merely contain them.  But how? 

You have to play disciplined assignment football, which means every player on that Bronco defense needs to make sure he doesn't over-pursue and plays his assignment.  If Boise State gets too aggressive, which is its normal style of swarming defense, it will pay for it with long runs and sustained drives by the Air Force offense.  That could also tire the defense out, and in the second half it could cause the Broncos to allow more points than they have all year.  

However, if the defense of the Broncos stays home, plays assignments and doesn't over-pursue, they will be just fine.   

Key 2: Keep Running the Ball Well

If you watched the game last week you know the Broncos ran the ball extremely well. 

Doug Martin carried the ball 20 times for 200 yards.  It was the best performance of the year for him and the Bronco rushing game. 

If the Broncos can keep running the ball well it keeps the Air Force offense on the sidelines. The longer BSU can keep that triple-option offense off the field, the more rest its defense will have. 

I don't think this will be a problem because the defense for Air Force is down a few starters—and it wasn't a great defense to begin with.  The Falcons allow nearly 36 points per contest, and with key injuries you can expect that total to go up. 

Key 3: Rack Up the Points

If the Broncos can get their offense off to their normal quick start and keep it going, Air Force will not be able to keep up. 

BSU averages 44 points a game, 307 yards passing and 191 yards on the ground.  If the Broncos continue this trend, no running game can keep up with them. 

This will force Air Force out of its game plan, and it will have to throw the ball more than it likes.  This is what happened to the Falcons against San Diego State and they lost that contest 41-27.

I expect the game to be close in the first quarter, but as the game goes on the Broncos will pull away.

Prediction: Boise State 56, Air Force 17