Picks for Every Week 7 NFL Game Against the Spread

Last week: 7-4-2.  Season totals: 50-36-4, Pct. .578.  Best Bets: 11-7, Pct. .611.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.

SUNDAY

N.Y. JETS 21, San Diego 17 (P)

So, three LSU players have been suspended after testing positive for fake grass. Well, the Chargers have been failing their recent tests on fake grass, going 1-4 both ways on artificial turf this year and last combined. True, strength of schedule has had a lot to do with it, but the Jets are still 3-0 straight up at home this year, and 0-3 on the road.

Tampa Bay 23, Chicago 20 (+1 1/2) (neutral field)

At least the British get a decent game for a change, along with a same-conference game for the first time ever. The Bucs have shown something new this year with their home wins over first the Falcons and then the Saints, while the Bears exhibit nothing new under the sun to speak of.

CAROLINA 24, Washington 10 (+3)

You absolutely knew that Rex Grossman had to implode sooner or later, but can't see how John Beck represents any kind of improvement and the home team in this series has won six in a row.

Denver 21 (+3), MIAMI 14

The Broncos have never won in Miami (0-7 straight up and 1-6 against the spread), but this might as well be a home game for Tim Tebow and Denver's twin 16-6 records coming off a bye week are the entire league's best on both counts.

CLEVELAND 27, Seattle 6 (+3)

And here we go from the best post-bye team in the NFL to the worst: Seattle is a league-trailing 4-17-1 against the spread, doing that in addition to being 2-11 against the line since 2009 as a visitor on the grass. Finally, the home team has covered in all three meetings between the Seahawks and the Browns Version 2.0.  Best bet.

DETROIT 24, Atlanta 21 (+4 1/2)

Cracks are beginning to show in Detroit's facade, particularly in the running game, where things don't figure to change now that the Ronnie Brown trade with the Eagles has been voided. By contrast, the Falcons may have turned the corner last week and can be trusted to at least take this one to the buzzer.

TENNESSEE 20, Houston 10 (+3) 

Back-to-back fatigue games for the Texans, who are also 2-7 straight-up lifetime in Music Land.  The Titans take surprising early command in the post-Peyton Manning—and pre-Andrew Luck?—AFC South.

ARIZONA 23 (+4), Pittsburgh 17

The Steelers are 0-3 against the spread on the road, their lone outright win by a field goal at "Suck For Luck" leader Indianapolis. Plus, the home team here is 5-1 both ways in the last six not counting Super Bowl XLIII, and the Cardinals are 13-6-2 against the spread after a bye week.

OAKLAND 17, Kansas City 10 (+3 1/2)

Who knows whether Carson Palmer is actually ready to run an offense on such short notice.  But we do know that Oakland has won and covered in eight consecutive division games, and KC's narrow victories over the one-win Vikings and winless Colts do not impress.

Green Bay 34, MINNESOTA 20 (+9 1/2)

Minnesota's change at quarterback is something to "ponder," I suppose, but Green Bay's 5-2-1 spread record in their last eight at Triple H and Aaron Rodgers' 9-4-1 career spread mark on rugs are matters that arouse considerably less speculation.

DALLAS 28, St. Louis 7 (+10 1/2)

Not buying the premise that Sam Bradford can possibly return from the dreaded high-ankle sprain without missing even a single game, and Jason Garrett is overdue for a breather after seeing all but the first two of his 13 games as an NFL head coach get decided by four points or less!

NEW ORLEANS 45, Indianapolis 10 (+14)

The Colts have filled their quota for noble struggles.  Now it's back to getting utterly throttled again.

MONDAY NIGHT

Baltimore 20, JACKSONVILLE 13 (+9)

The Jaguars finally woke up last week, and Baltimore's grind-it-out offense is not conducive to covering big spreads. Add the home team's current four-game win-and-cover streak in the series, and that fairly well clinches it. Take the points.

BEST BETS: CAROLINA, CLEVELAND, ARIZONA