MLB Free Agency 2012: Will the Cleveland Indians Sign C.J. Wilson?

If the Cleveland Indians are serious about contending in 2012 and have a hole in the rotation, it makes sense that they should make a run at C.J. Wilson, the best available pitcher (except for CC Sabathia) on the market, right? 

If only it were that simple. 

Before even analyzing the likelihood that the Tribe's front office would consider signing a player like Wilson, let's see if C.J. Wilson is even a desirable player for the Indians to have.

Here are two players with similar stat lines in their age 29 and age 30 seasons. Which would you rather have:

Player A: 31-15 W-L, 3.14 ERA (142 ERA+), 3.39 FIP, 3.72 xFIP, 1.215 WHIP, 7.9 SO/9, 3.5 BB/9, 2.25 SO:BB, 9.4 rWAR, 10.5 fWAR

Player B: 23-13 W-L, 3.79 ERA (117 ERA+), 4.11 FIP, 3.85 xFIP, 1.251 WHIP, 7.1 SO/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.09 SO:BB, 6.5 rWAR, 5.8 fWAR

Player A has better overall stats, but Player B has better peripherals. They have similar looking xFIPs, and while I would take Player A over Player B, it seems to be a fairly close fight.

Player A is C.J. Wilson. Player B is the beloved John Lackey. 

In a story that is well known by now, the Boston Red Sox signed Lackey to a five-year, $82.5 million contract after those two seasons and have regretted it ever since. Wilson, with better stats than Lackey, wants to push for a nine-figure deal and will likely get it.

This isn't to say that Wilson is destined to become Lackey; it serves more to look at the terrible investment free agent pitching is. These long-term deals rarely work out because of the unpredictability of pitchers' performance and injuries.

Add in the fact that Wilson will be 31 next year and has only been dominant for one season (2011) and this doesn't seem to be a great investment.

Wilson will get his money from someone, but I sure hope it isn't Cleveland. While I must say that an Ubaldo/Wilson/Masterson/Tomlin/Carmona-McAllister-Huff rotation doesn't sound bad at all, I still am not sold on Wilson.

The Indians would be much better off pushing for Wandy Rodriguez (33 next year, but is only owed $23 million over the next two years, with a player option of $13 million in 2014), Erik Bedard (33-year-old free agent that could come on a decently priced two year deal) or Chris Capuano (also a 33-year-old free agent who would be even cheaper).

While Wandy, Bedard and Capuano don't come close to Wilson, they'd still be better investments for the Tribe. The 2009 free agency class included Lackey's $82.5 million, Jason Bay's $66 million and Chone Figgins' $36 million. All of those deals seemed like a good idea at the time.

So as any Cleveland fan knows by now, it isn't good for your health to hope the front office will splurge and go after marquee free agents. Very simply, the Indians don't have much money to spend, so they have to be very wise on who they invest in.

And when it comes to small-market free agency, those mid-level to bargain deals seem to work out better anyway. Let's just write C.J. Wilson off our offseason shopping list.