2011 College Football Week 8 Picks and Predictions: Wisconsin over MSU

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The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Wisconsin at Michigan State

With their win on Saturday, Michigan State has now beaten Michigan four consecutive times for the first time since 1959-1962. But that streak would hold little weight in 2011 if the Spartans fall to Wisconsin in East Lansing Saturday night.

MSU currently leads the Big Ten's Legends Division by a half game over Nebraska, Michigan and Iowa, while the Badgers remain undefeated after trouncing Indiana 59-7.

Wisconsin is quietly making a strong run at the BCS National Championship. They lead FBS schools in scoring (50.1 points per game) and have scored at least 35 points in every single game. Their two-headed monsters in the running game, Montee Ball and James White, have already rushed for over 1,000 yards and 20 touchdowns. Then there is the all-transfer team president, Russell Wilson, who is completing nearly 75 percent of his passes with over 1,500 yards passing and 14 touchdowns.

It's that runaway locomotive of an offense that Michigan State hosts this Saturday. The Spartans' defense has led them to their 5-1 start as their offensive output lingers in the middle of the FBS pack. They rank first in pass defense (119.1 yards per game), third in rush defense (186.1 yards per game) and fourth in scoring defense (10.8 points per game).

Using our college football simulation engine, we "played" the Badgers and Spartans 101 times and its Wisconsin winning 78.7 percent of the time by an average score of 36-24.

Washington at Stanford

Certain NFL fan bases have adopted "Suck for Luck" campaigns, hoping to snag the services of Andrew Luck in the 2012 NFL Draft, but Stanford's quarterback remains focused as he's led the Cardinal to a nation-best 14-game win streak. Their latest victory was a 30-point shellacking of Washington State. They return home for a Week 8 meeting with the 22nd-ranked Huskies Saturday night.

Stanford currently ranks fifth in both scoring offense (45.8 points per game) and defense (11.2 ppg). Luck is completing 71.3 percent of his passes for more than 1,700 yards with 18 touchdowns and only three interceptions. A potpourri of running backs have accounted for 5.1 yards per rush and 15 touchdowns.

Washington's quarterback, Keith Price, is no slouch as he is third in the nation with 21 passing touchdowns. Outside of that, the Huskies' stats are far from inspiring heading into a road contest against Luck. They rank 45th in passing offense and 48th on the ground. What hurts the most and that needs to improve Saturday night are the 28.5 points per game (77th in FBS) Washington is surrendering each time they take the field.

We simulated the Cardinal and Huskies 101 times and it's Stanford winning 89.1 percent of the time by an average score of 37-22.

College Football Week 8
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Boston College Eagles	21.8	18	Boxscore
@ Virginia Tech Hokies	78.2	27
North Carolina Tar Heels	25.7	20	Boxscore
@ Clemson Tigers	74.3	30
Maryland Terrapins	25.7	21	Boxscore
@ Florida State Seminoles	74.3	30
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	37.6	22	Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes	62.4	26
Wake Forest Demon Deacons	62.4	32	Boxscore
@ Duke Blue Devils	37.6	28
North Carolina State Wolfpack	68.3	27	Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers	31.7	22
Rutgers Scarlet Knights	53.5	23	Boxscore
@ Louisville Cardinals	46.5	22
Cincinnati Bearcats	57.4	30	Boxscore
@ South Florida Bulls	42.6	28
West Virginia Mountaineers	69.3	29	Boxscore
@ Syracuse Orange	30.7	22
Indiana Hoosiers	14.9	18	Boxscore
@ Iowa Hawkeyes	85.1	33
Illinois Fighting Illini	63.4	26	Boxscore
@ Purdue Boilermakers	36.6	22
Penn State Nittany Lions	74.8	27	Boxscore
@ Northwestern Wildcats	25.2	20
Wisconsin Badgers	78.7	36	Boxscore
@ Michigan State Spartans	21.3	24
Nebraska Cornhuskers	95.0	32	Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers	5.0	10
Miami (OH) RedHawks	25.7	21	Boxscore
@ Toledo Rockets	74.3	32
Central Michigan Chippewas	80.2	29	Boxscore
@ Ball State Cardinals	19.8	19
Northern Illinois Huskies	86.6	33	Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bulls	13.4	19
Western Michigan Broncos	86.6	35	Boxscore
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles	13.4	19
Ohio Bobcats	91.1	32	Boxscore
@ Akron Zips	8.9	13
Temple Owls	91.1	32	Boxscore
@ Bowling Green Falcons	8.9	17
Washington Huskies	10.9	22	Boxscore
@ Stanford Cardinal	89.1	37
UCLA Bruins	31.2	25	Boxscore
@ Arizona Wildcats	68.8	28
Utah Utes	59.4	24	Boxscore
@ California Golden Bears	40.6	22
Oregon State Beavers	67.3	29	Boxscore
@ Washington State Cougars	32.7	25
Oregon Ducks	93.1	41	Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes	6.9	19
Jacksonville State Gamecocks	5.0	8	Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats	95.0	43
Auburn Tigers	5.9	18	Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers	94.1	33
Tennessee Volunteers	10.9	15	Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide	89.1	33
Army Black Knights	37.6	18	Boxscore
@ Vanderbilt Commodores	62.4	20
Arkansas Razorbacks	93.1	38	Boxscore
@ Mississippi Rebels	6.9	19
New Mexico State Aggies	6.9	19	Boxscore
@ Hawaii Warriors	93.1	39
Fresno State Bulldogs	51.0	29	Boxscore
@ Nevada Wolf Pack	49.0	27
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	62.4	29	Boxscore
@ Utah State Aggies	37.6	25
Idaho State Bengals	5.0	8	Boxscore
@ Brigham Young Cougars	95.0	49
USC Trojans	45.5	28	Boxscore
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish	54.5	29
East Carolina Pirates	48.5	26	Boxscore
@ Navy Midshipmen	51.5	28
Texas Tech Red Raiders	12.9	20	Boxscore
@ Oklahoma Sooners	87.1	38
Kansas State Wildcats	79.2	34	Boxscore
@ Kansas Jayhawks	20.8	21
Oklahoma State Cowboys	80.2	37	Boxscore
@ Missouri Tigers	19.8	25
Texas A&M Aggies	92.1	36	Boxscore
@ Iowa State Cyclones	7.9	18
Memphis Tigers	6.9	13	Boxscore
@ Tulane Green Wave	93.1	31
Marshall Thundering Herd	23.8	23	Boxscore
@ Houston Cougars	76.2	33
Colorado State Rams	45.0	23	Boxscore
@ UTEP Miners	55.0	24
Southern Methodist Mustangs	73.3	37	Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles	26.7	31
Tulsa Golden Hurricane	82.2	38	Boxscore
@ Rice Owls	17.8	27
UCF Knights	92.1	37	Boxscore
@ UAB Blazers	7.9	19
New Mexico Lobos	5.0	9	Boxscore
@ TCU Horned Frogs	95.0	46
Air Force Falcons	5.0	18	Boxscore
@ Boise State Broncos	95.0	40
FIU Golden Panthers	56.4	28	Boxscore
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves	43.6	26
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	63.4	28	Boxscore
@ North Texas Mean Green	36.6	23
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	71.3	31	Boxscore
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	28.7	22
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	83.2	27	Boxscore
@ Florida Atlantic Owls	16.8	16