Fantasy Football: 6 Possible Trades to Save Your Season
We’re six weeks into the season, and for many of us we’re nearly halfway through the fantasy season. Whether you’re tight-walking the last playoff seed or sitting in last place, it’s not time to give up yet.
With a couple sell highs, a few buy lows and a whole lot of luck, a hot streak that carries you into the playoffs is not out of reach. Here are a few trade ideas that can get you there.
Trade FRED JACKSON for a Darren McFadden, Ray Rice or Arian Foster
1 of 6Last week in my Sell-High column, Buffalo Bills RB Fred Jackson was one of my biggest cash-ins for the week. On Sunday, he ran for 121 yards on 16 carries and added a TD, yet I still stand by my argument to sell high. You could even say that Jackson just opened up your window even more.
The logic behind selling on Jackson, which still stands, is that every week Jackson seems to get the bulk of his yardage on just one or two touches.
This week against the Giants, it was an 80-yard score that featured three defensive players taking poor routes to the ball, while last week vs. Philadelphia nearly all of his work came on five carries. Excluding those six plays, he‘s averaged just 2.39 yards per carry between the two games.
Both Philadelphia and New York were top-eight in carries of 20-plus yards allowed by rush defenses. Of Buffalo’s 10 upcoming games, just two are against defenses in the top half of the league in terms of giving up carries of 20-plus yards. (Translation: Jackson will be hard pressed to break off the big runs.)
If you can swing a trade straight up for Darren McFadden or even chip in a little extra (backup WR?) and get Arian Foster or Ray Rice, I’d be all over that trade.
Trade COLT MCCOY for Josh Freeman or Matt Schaub
2 of 6In most instances, it’s good to go with the hot hand or at least a player who has shown promise. That is precisely why this trade may work out, except you’ll be standing on the other side.
Cleveland Browns QB Colt McCoy has been a top-10 QB in back-to-back weeks (kinda—CLE was on a bye Week 5) and has benefited greatly from the Browns' move to a pass-heavy attack. In Week 4, McCoy attempted 60 passes, most in the league by a long shot, while on Sunday he threw another 45, good for the second-most this week.
McCoy is putting up decent and consistent fantasy numbers in the process and has become a trendy name among trade targets. Owners of QBs who have underperformed thus far will be looking for some fresh meat. McCoy has a rough schedule over the next seven weeks, playing four top-eight pass defenses in the process, making him perfect trade bait.
I’d target two guys in particular: Tampa Bay's Josh Freeman and Houston’s Matt Schaub. Both QBs have struggled six weeks into the season, but there are reasons to be excited. Over the next nine weeks, Schaub faces just one top-12 pass defense, and the re-addition of WR1 Andre Johnson means Schaub instantly returns as a top-six QB.
Freeman also has an easy schedule ahead, but more importantly, after last week’s stinker in San Francisco, the Bucs showed a commitment to the pass this week against New Orleans, and Freeman excelled, throwing for 300-plus yards and two scores. You may need to toss in a little chump change to get either of these two, but it will be worth it.
Trade NATE BURLESON for Mike Thomas or Nate Washington
3 of 6Targets are a great indication of a QB's trust in a certain WR, but sometimes fantasy owners overvalue them. From Weeks 3 to 5, Lions WR2 Nate Burleson was targeted just 10 times, pulling down five of them for a grand total of 34 yards. On Sunday against San Francisco, QB Matthew Stafford looked to Burleson a team-high 10 times, including a five-yard touchdown pass.
Now some owners may be ecstatic, thinking Burleson is back to being a featured WR in the explosive Detroit offense. I, on the other hand, would try my hardest to convince another owner of that exactly, point to the 10 targets and sell him immediately.
While Burleson may have been the No. 2 guy in Detroit at the start of the season, tight end Brandon Pettigrew has recently taken over that role, becoming one of Stafford’s favorite targets next to Calvin Johnson. The Niners did a good job containing Johnson Sunday, but I don’t foresee many teams faring as well in the future.
I still expect rookie WR Titus Young to take over WR2 options sooner rather than later and would look at Sunday’s box score as a prime opportunity to move Burleson before its too late.
In return, I’d look for a WR with solid fantasy WR2 upside, like Jacksonville’s Mike Thomas or Tennessee’s Nate Washington. After Jacksonville’s matchup next week against the red-hot Baltimore Ravens, Thomas and the Jags face off against five teams ranked 25th or worst against WR1s over the following seven.
Tennessee matches up against many of the same teams as well, with five of its next seven coming against teams ranked 25th or worst against WR1s. Both Thomas and Washington have big opportunities ahead.
Trade Fred Davis or Brandon Pettigrew for VERNON DAVIS or JERMICHAEL FINLEY
4 of 6Since his 11-catch, 112-yard breakout in Week 3, Detroit Lions TE Brandon Pettigrew has slowly become QB Matthew Stafford’s second-favorite target next to WR1 Calvin Johnson.
Meanwhile in Washington, TE Fred Davis, who exploded for six catches and 95 yards Sunday, has become a reliable fantasy TE and was replacement QB John Beck’s favorite target against the Eagles.
Meanwhile, Jermichael Finley was fantasy-irrelevant for the third straight week.
What people don’t realize, however, is that Finley has squared off against three straight teams that have thrived at shutting down the TE this season. In fact, Atlanta and St. Louis were top-five against the TE. Finley doesn’t have to face a top-15 defense vs. the TE until seven weeks from now.
Expect to see Rodgers get back to hooking up with his favorite target next to Greg Jennings and the uber-athletic Finley to return to his rightful role as a top-three fantasy TE.
San Francisco’s Vernon Davis was essentially invisible on Sunday, primarily helping out the offensive line stifle the Detroit Lions’ fearsome front seven. Three of the Niners’ next four games come against defenses ranked 27th or worse vs. the TE, which means Davis could go insane. The West Coast offense that the Niners run is perfect for an athletically gifted guy like Davis. Now might be the only time all season that you can “buy low” on him.
Granted, you won't be able to get Davis or Finley straight up for Pettigrew or Davis, but you will be able to start a conversation at the very least. If the owner wants you to tack on a WR3 or backup RB, it’s definitely worth it.
Trade LARRY FITZGERALD for Hakeem Nicks, Roddy White or Greg Jennings
5 of 6The following two slides target the same three players, but I have enough to say that we’ll split it up.
Larry Fitzgerald has the athleticism, soft hands and speed to be the top WR in the NFL. He’s in an elite class alongside the best in the game, but when it comes to fantasy this season, he’s been good but not elite. Things are about to get A LOT harder too.
Five of the next six weeks, Fitzgerald and the Cardinals face off against teams ranked eighth or better against opposing WR1s. We’re talking about matchups with some of the game’s best cornerbacks around, including Pittsburgh's Ike Taylor and the Eagles' Nnamdi Asomugha. Only twice this season has Fitzgerald broken 70 yards, and he’ll be hard pressed to this next set of games.
Looking at targets, Fitzgerald certainly carries WR1 stock and is not worth trading away unless you’re getting back WR1 value.
Giants WR1 Hakeem Nicks may be a perfect fit. First off, Nicks has been good this season, but like Fitzgerald he hasn’t quite posted that elite production everyone has hoped for. He’s been limited to just four catches or less in four of his six games, and the Giants WR corps has proven to be a real cluster with Mario Manningham and Victor Cruz getting their fair shares. (These all make great arguments when you’re trying to trade.)
Fact of the matter is, however, Nicks is an absolute beast on the field. He gobbles up everything sent his way and is one of the most reliable targets in the game. He has a great schedule ahead, and most of all, with the Giants entering the bye week, you may find an owner willing to deal him cheaper than his value simply to fill out his lineup spot with a quality WR.
We’ll look at White and Jennings on the next slide...
Trade DEZ BRYANT for Hakeem Nicks, Roddy White or Greg Jennings
6 of 6I love Cowboys WR Dez Bryant. He’s truly special out there on the field and could one day become the most dominant wideout in the NFL. I’ve been banking on his potential all season long, and I’m starting to realize that as good as he is, he simply does not get targeted like he should be.
In Sunday’s game against the 31st-ranked against the pass New England Patriots, Bryant was at best the second option for QB Tony Romo, typically the third WR looked at.
When Bryant draws a one-on-one situation, he NEEDS to be targeted. He can out-jump and out-muscle nearly any cornerback in the NFL but when he drew those matchups on Sunday, Romo still didn’t target him. The commentators even pointed out that Bryant’s attitude was beginning to sour as he slowly sauntered back to the huddle late in the game.
While I worry that this trade could come back to bite me, I wouldn’t hesitate to shop the talented Bryant right now. His stock is sky-high simply due to his potential, but I honestly wonder if he’ll reach it anytime soon.
Green Bay WR Greg Jennings is QB Aaron Rodgers’ favorite, most relied upon target, hands down. He’s become one of the most consistent fantasy WRs around and until this week scored double digits in every matchup. Rodgers is showing no sign of wearing down anytime soon, and so long as he’s at the helm, I want in on Jennings.
Atlanta Falcons WR Roddy White has been a fantasy anomaly this season so far. Coming into 2011, the Falcons looked to be a very pass-heavy offense led by a respectable QB in Matt Ryan. White, an elite WR talent, obviously looked to benefit.
While White has been hardly a top-20 WR, he has been the second-most targeted wideout in the NFL behind Wes Welker. Of all 13 WRs with 42-plus targets, White has the second-fewest yards but the second-most catches. He has just two TDs after finishing seventh overall last season with 10. Something has to give soon. White will finish the year a top-10 receiver, so you might as well buy low now.
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