BCS Rankings 2011: Computers Flopped Big-Time on These 5 Teams

The initial BCS rankings are officially out for 2011, and once again, the fate of one of the most coveted sports championships is left partially in the hands of computer programs.

The BCS computer polls are generally fairly accurate, but they are computers and can't take into account some of the subtle intangibles of the game.

That being said, let's take a look at five teams that the BCS computer rankings whiffed on.

West Virginia Mountaineers

USA Today Poll: 14

BCS Ranking: 15

BCS Computer Ranking: 21

West Virginia sits at 5-1, with their only loss coming against BCS No.1 LSU. The Mountaineers don’t have a statement victory on their resume as of yet in this season, but they did have an impressive road victory against a Maryland team that blew a fourth-quarter lead against BCS No. 8 Clemson this weekend.

Auburn Tigers

USA Today Poll:  23

BCS Ranking: 20

BCS Computer Ranking: 14

The Auburn Tigers are getting a lot of love from the BCS computers—a result of an early victory against then No. 16 Mississippi State and a road victory at then No. 10 South Carolina. These wins are given too much weight in the computer polls. Mississippi State has been exposed as way overrated and currently owns a losing record. South Carolina is a one-loss team in the SEC, but has looked very shaky in several of their wins.

Auburn has shown they still have a propensity to win, but they haven’t been able to put away many teams this season. Nearly all their wins, including against some pretty weak opponents, have been very close. The Tigers won their first two games against Utah State and Mississippi State respectively by less than one possession.

South Carolina Gamecocks

USA Today Poll: 12

BCS Ranking: 14

BCS Computer Ranking: 13

South Carolina is a 6-1 SEC team, with their only loss coming at the hands of the defending BCS champions. Normally, that should easily be good for a Top 10 ranking, but not when it comes to the 2011 Gamecocks.

South Carolina has not yet played a ranked team coming into the game against the Gamecocks this year, and the loss to the defending champs came against the aforementioned Auburn Tigers, who are currently ranked at No. 20 in the BCS standings with a 5-2 record.

A pretty good case could be made for South Carolina being overrated at No. 14 based on their body of work so far this season. But when you take into account the quarterback situation in Columbia and the announcement today that star running back Marcus Lattimore will miss the remainder of the season with a knee injury, the Gamecocks should struggle through the second half of the season and could drop fast in the polls.

Stanford Cardinal

USA Today Poll: 5

BCS Ranking: 8

BCS Computer Ranking: 8

Stanford, through no fault of their own, has a lower ranking all around than they probably should, including computer rankings, based on their soft schedule to start the season. Yes, the Cardinal have not played a quality opponent as of yet, but they have won their first six games by a combined score of 275-67.

The polls don’t take margin of victory into account, which is reasonable to keep teams from unnecessarily running up scores, but it does punish teams like Stanford that have looked very strong against lesser opponents, as opposed to teams like Auburn that have pulled out several close games versus average teams.

Wisconsin Badgers

 USA Today Poll:  4

BCS Ranking: 6

BCS Computer Ranking: 11

Wisconsin, like Stanford, has played mostly nobodies, but beat them all soundly. The exception was the Badger’s game against the then No. 8 Nebraska, who Wisconsin summarily dismissed with a resounding 48-17 victory. Wisconsin has similarly dominated in every other game of their season as well. The Badgers have outscored opponents 301-58.

But bigger than the numbers, I think the BCS whiffed on Wisconsin because the Badgers just seem like the most complete team in the nation, even though they’ve only showed it against one ranked team thus far.

The Wisconsin defense is playing lights out, ranking third in the nation and giving up less than 10 points per game. But it’s the Badger offense that is truly exceptional and seems unstoppable.

Russell Wilson is a mature leader of the Badgers in his first year as the starter after transferring from NC State. Russell also spent time playing minor league baseball before returning to college football. Wilson is an experienced, poised athlete, and he is surrounded with weapons like Monte Ball and James White at running back and Nick Toon at receiver, not to mention a mountainous offensive line. A very good case could be made for Wisconsin having the best offensive teams in the nation right now.

A trip to Michigan State next week should help push Wisconsin up in the rankings, but it’s doubtful that their remaining schedule will be enough to move Wisconsin into one of the two top spots for a national championship game berth without some help from the teams ahead of them in the BCS rankings. Too bad, considering Wisconsin could almost certainly hang with anyone in the nation.