BCS Standings 2011: Breaking Down the Oregon Ducks

The Oregon Ducks 2011 season has been a roller coaster ride with grand highs and devastating lows.

All eyes have been on Eugene to see how the Ducks would bounce back from a devastating loss to Auburn in the 2010 National Championship game.

Do the Ducks have what it takes to sneak their way into the BCS Title game?

The Ducks find themselves ranked No. 10 in the initial rankings with six games left on the table to prove their merit.

How They Got Here

In what was one of the most hyped opening games in college football history, the Oregon Ducks and LSU Tigers battled it out on the national spotlight in the Cowboys Classic. A depleted Ducks team kept the game close through the first half, but a depleted defensive line could not stop LSU’s running attack.

Oregon’s running backs Kenjon Barner and true freshman De’Anthony Thomas made costly mistakes that led to three touchdowns for the Tigers. Barner, while a veteran for the Ducks, looked uncomfortable all game and battled through nagging leg injuries. Barner attempted to reverse field on a punt return at the 4-yard line and fumbled allowing Tyrann Mathieu to scoop and score.

A little later into the game De’Anthony Thomas playing for the injured Barner made a costly fumble on a run up the middle when he was caught from behind and fumbled. After LSU punched it in for a score, Thomas fumbled again on the ensuing kickoff.

A myriad of turnovers, penalties and poor execution showed the Ducks’ vulnerability, and put them in a steep climb to New Orleans for the BCS title.

The Ducks bounced back from the loss to the Tigers with three wins over a Nevada team that has no resemblance of the team that beat Boise State in 2010, FCS Missouri State and a terrible Arizona team that may be the worst BCS conference team in the entire country.

The wins were very dominating, but not impressive at all. Thursday night of Week 5 gave the Ducks a slightly better idea of what this team can do.

The Ducks routed an average Cal Bears team, their most impressive win at that time. Oregon’s secondary again showed some holes, especially with deep passes over the top where the safeties have struggled all year.

The defensive line has greatly improved since the opening game, now at level of success that many believed they should be at. The offensive line has also gelled, looking like the unit last season that was one of the tops in the country.

The secondary and passing attack on offense still looks like it will need to improve if the Ducks’ hope to win the Pac-12 championship game.

Best Win

The Ducks got their best win of the season yesterday when the beat Pac-12 South favorite Arizona State. It was the second time ESPN’s College Gameday hosted the show from an Oregon game, first being LSU, and the Ducks did not disappoint coming away with a 41-27 victory.

Oregon clearly was the better team, dominating all facets of the game. ASU kept the game close through the first three quarters, but the depth at Oregon was something the visiting Sun Devils couldn’t keep up with.

What also makes this win so impressive, the Ducks were able to win with 2010 Heisman Trophy Finalist LaMichael James out with an elbow injury. The tandem of Kenjon Barner (171 and a TD) and De’Anthony Thomas (73 and two TDs) played great stepping in for the injured James.

The Ducks as a whole was able to put up 327 yards on the ground against an underrated ASU defense. 

BCS Ranking

As I mentioned in the opening slide, the Ducks are ranked No. 10 behind LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Boise State, Wisconsin, Clemson, Stanford and Arkansas.

The Ducks are the second highest ranked 1-loss team (Arkansas) and find themselves ranked higher than two undefeated teams (Kansas State and Houston). The placement is somewhat surprising considering their No. 8 and No. 9 rankings in the writers and coaches polls.

The Ducks’ most impressive win as mentioned in the previous slide is against an unranked team (currently) and the fact that LSU has been so good.

The Ducks will need the aforementioned teams to lose if they hope to make it into the national championship game.

Remaining Schedule

You can see the schedule to the left that the Ducks will face two more ranked teams before the season concludes. Assuming the Ducks take care of business against Colorado and Washington State before they play in Seattle against the No. 25 Washington Huskies on Nov. 5th.

The Ducks should matchup favorably against the Huskies, with the big test coming the following week against the No. 8 Stanford Cardinal. The winner of that game will in all likelihood win the Pac-12 North division and host the winner of the South division in the conference championship game.

The Ducks conclude their season with two less than impressive teams, USC and Oregon State, at home.

Bowl Projection

I’ve said it since the beginning of the season, I see this Oregon team winning the inaugural Pac-12 championship and playing in the Rose Bowl against Wisconsin.

As mentioned in the previous slide, the Ducks have two key games remaining on their schedule against No. 25 Washington and No. 8 Stanford.

The Ducks should be able to run the ball all over the Huskies defense, like they did against Arizona State, and the Oregon defense’s bend but don’t break playing style will be enough for a win. The game against the Stanford Cardinal is what intrigues me.

Note: Before I get started previewing this game, this is under the assumption that LaMichael James will return for the Ducks by Nov. 12th.

I expect the Ducks to continue their success running the ball on the ground and will work out some of the issues passing the ball by the time the game comes around. The key to the game is the Oregon secondary trying to stop Andrew Luck and the Cardinal passing attack. Oregon’s defensive backs have been spotty in coverage, relying on drops and overthrows.

If the Ducks can take the passing attack out of the game and force the Cardinal to run the ball, the Ducks should be able to stop Stanford enough to win the game. Expect the Ducks to come away with a close win in Palo Alto.