BCS Rankings 2011: Will Wisconsin or Boise State Get More Love from Computers?

As you may have heard, there is mad science at work whenever the BCS rankings are calculated. The only real downside is that the rankings often look like products of mad science.

We can rest assured this will be the case Sunday night, as the first BCS rankings for the 2011 season are due to be announced. And while we know that LSU, Alabama and Oklahoma are going to make up the top three in some order or another, I think the truly intriguing part will be to see how the rankings pan out beyond No. 3.

In particular, I am very interested to see how Boise State and Wisconsin are ranked.

Were the BCS rankings a direct copy of the polls, Wisconsin would be the higher-ranked of the two teams. Wisconsin is ranked higher than Boise State on both the USA Today poll and the Harris poll, which of course are the two polls that the BCS rankings take into consideration.

If Wisconsin and Boise State both win on Saturday, I'm going to assume nothing will change.

However, the BCS computers may not agree. ESPN's Brad Edwards came up with a mock of what the first BCS rankings might look like (check it out here), and it had Boise State ranked ahead of Wisconsin.

That's a little odd. Because the computers weigh record, strength of schedule and location of games, the indication of ranking Boise State ahead of Wisconsin is basically that the Broncos have played a tougher schedule.

Seeing as how Boise State is in the Mountain West and Wisconsin is in the Big Ten, that too is an odd point.

If Boise State ends up ranked ahead of Wisconsin, it will be, for all intents and purposes, because the computers valued Boise's win over Georgia more than they valued Wisconsin's win over Nebraska.

Because the Cornhuskers were No. 8 when Wisconsin beat them, and because Georgia is no longer ranked at all, that would be a strange evaluation.

However, it would not be entirely invalid. Wisconsin beat Nebraska at home, and in fact has played just one game away from home this season. Boise State beat Georgia on the road, and the Broncos will have played four games away from home by the time the BCS rankings are released.

So, as strange as it seems, the BCS computers may actually have a point if and when they rank Boise State ahead of Wisconsin. This won't necessarily mean that Boise State is the better team (I don't think it is), but the rankings will be logical.

Boise State likely won't be able to remain ahead of Wisconsin for long, of course. Wisconsin does have a light schedule this year, but it will be heavier than Boise State's before we reach the end. Assuming the Badgers don't lose, they will be ranked ahead of Boise State sooner or later.

The only question then will be whether or not it matters.