Projected BCS Rankings: 5 Overrated Teams That Will Sneak into BCS Picture

Every year, we see teams in the BCS that just don't belong there. It's often because they play in a conference that just doesn't quite measure up to the other BCS conferences.

Other times, it's because the people at the respective BCS bowls are looking to get certain teams in because of their draw.

For whatever reason, there are just some BCS games that don't appear worthy of being BCS games.

That's still a few months away. But for now, let's take a look at some teams that are creeping their way towards BCS relevance that probably don't belong there.

I am really only focusing on teams with one loss, at the most. You can make a case that Notre Dame belongs here but at 3-2, they aren't in the BCS picture unless they beat Air Force today, and then beat USC in two weeks.

Michigan Wolverines

I will grant that Michigan has been extremely impressive this year. But looks can be deceiving.

Their only real quality win came against Notre Dame, who I also think is overrated. That was a home game for the Wolverines and one where they were quite frankly, lucky to win.

I think Michigan will beat Northwestern today in a game that's not as impressive as people will make it out to be.

The Wolverines don't face a ranked team until November 12, when they travel to Illinois.

It's not at all impossible that Michigan will get through this season at 10-2 or better. Given Michigan's name value, that would probably qualify them for a major bowl. Still, I don't see them doing well against the kind of teams they will encounter in a BCS Bowl.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

This is another team with only one real quality win. Like Michigan, they were relatively lucky to get it. Like Michigan, it came against a team that's a little overrated.

Where Oklahoma State and Michigan differ is that if the Cowboys are phonies, we'll know it. They have four remaining games against teams currently in the Top 25. With the exception of next week's game against Texas, all are at home.

Oklahoma State can score with anyone. But they haven't done a good job of keeping their opponents out of the end zone. That will need to change if they are going to navigate the rest of the Big 12 schedule.

Nebraska Cornhuskers

I think last week's game against Wisconsin gave us a pretty good indicator of what we're going to see from Nebraska when they face national powers.

The Cornhuskers are currently ranked No. 14, but don't face a ranked opponent until a November 19 showdown in the Big House against the aforementioned Michigan Wolverines.

The winner of that game may well end up in a BCS game, which I don't see going well for either.

With Ohio State and Michigan down, this is not the Big Ten's best year. Nebraska hosts the Buckeyes tonight and while I see them winning, I don't see the Huskers as a team that will make much noise in the Bowl Season.

Arkansas Razorbacks

If Auburn manages to best the Razorbacks today, I will say pretty much the same thing about them.

These teams are not worthy of their rankings of No. 10 (Arkansas) and No. 15 (Auburn).

Both teams have one loss against a likely BCS team. Since I think Arkansas will win, I'll make them the focus here.

Like Oklahoma State, they were lucky to beat a Texas A&M team that just can't stop anyone. Other than that, their wins are against teams that they should beat handily.

Now, today's win will not be as great as the rankings would suggest (for either team). At some point, these teams will be exposed. The SEC schedule is a gauntlet.

But the winner of this game will be at worst, on the fringe of a BCS game. Frankly, I don't see either as worthy.

Illinois Fighting Illini

I guess I am just not that impressed with the Big Ten this year, although I am a big fan of that Wisconsin team. The fact of the matter is that if Illinois beats a lowly Indiana team today, they will be 6-0 and ranked.

As a matter of fact, their schedule is not that tough from this point on until back to back games against Michigan and Wisconsin.

If they keep winning, they have to be at least considered as a BCS team. For the sake of quality bowls, I hope that doesn't happen.

It's hard to say anything definitively in October, but I can't see them staying within three touchdowns against another BCS team.