NHL Predictions 2012: Why the Vancouver Canucks Will Win the Western Conference

There weren't many surprises in the 2010-2011 regular season, as the usual contenders for Western Conference all made the playoffs, albeit just barely in the case of Chicago.

But there looks to be some turnover amongst the upper tier in the Western Conference, as several teams have improved drastically in the offseason, and others have fallen.

Last season the Vancouver Canucks dominated the Western Conference en route to the President's Trophy. Will they be able to defend their title in 2011-2012?

2010-2011 Standings

1. Vancouver Canucks  117 points
2. San Jose Sharks  105 points
3. Detroit Red Wings  104 points
4. Anaheim Ducks  99 points
5. Nashville Predators  99 points
6. Phoenix Coyotes 99 points
7. LA Kings 98 points
8. Chicago Blackhawks 97 points

9. Dallas Stars 95 points
10. Calgary Flames 94 points
11. St Louis Blues 87 points
12. Minnesota Wild 86 points
13. Columbus Blue Jackets 81 points
14. Colorado Avalanche 68 points
15. Edmonton Oilers 62 points

Methodology:

As a starting point, I used the standings from 2010-2011, then considered the moves made this summer by the Western Conference teams. 

I also tried to keep it a zero sum total for the point total changes. Specifically, I tried to keep it balanced within the various divisions, since the largest segment of games played comes against your divisional rivals.

After all, if one team wins more games than last year, then someone else has to lose more games. Conversely, if a team got worse over the summer, then you can expect their division rivals to pick up a few more points at their expense.

Northwest Division Predictions

Predicted Points and change from 2010-2011

1. Vancouver Canucks 110 (-7)
2. Minnesota Wild 86 
3. Calgary Flames 84 (-10)
4. Edmonton Oilers 72 (+10)
5. Colorado Avalanche 68

Combine the team that has boasted both the most goals scored, as well as the Art Ross winner, in each of the last two seasons in the Canucks, with a division full of rebuilding teams, and it doesn't appear that the Canucks will be relinquishing their grasp on the Northwest division.

The Canucks will miss the slick skating of Christian Ehrhoff, but there is more than enough firepower left on the roster. Still, they will suffer a bit from a short summer due to their lengthy playoff run.

Minnesota pulled off a pair of big trades with San Jose, getting Devon Setoguchi and Dany Heatley for Brent Burns and Marion Havlat. This trade could pay off big for the Wild, but only if Heatley plays like he actually gives a damn. I wouldn't count on it, as he appears to have lost his motivation sometime around his $10,000,000 million signing bonus from Ottawa a few years ago.

Calgary got worse. An aging roster, Jarome Iginla already got injured in the preseason, and he is the source of all their offence. And it doesn't help that they still haven't found a reliable backup for the overworked Miikka Kiprusoff.

The Oilers got better, adding Ryan Smyth and also first over-all pick Nugent-Hopkins. But still, better is a relative term when you picked first over-all in back to back years. 

Colorado is rebuilding after their worst season ever in Denver. Don't expect them to make any big improvements this year, but they are doing a proper job of rebuilding and assembling a good core of young talent. A few years behind the Oilers in the rebuilding phase though.

Pacific Division Predictions

Predicted Points and change from 2010-2011

1. LA Kings 108 (+10)
2. San Jose 105 
3. Anaheim Ducks 104 (+5)
4. Dallas Stars 90 (-5)
5. Phoenix Coyotes 85 (-14)

The NHL might want to rename this the California division during realignment. All three California teams will battle for the division title, but the Kings will come out on top.

Last season the Kings faltered down the stretch after a season ending injury to top forward Anze Kopitar. Kopitar is back and healthy, and is joined by veteran Simon Gagne and newcomer Mike Richards. Combine that stellar forward corps with the defence led by Drew Doughty, and the Kings will be the team to beat in the Pacific.

The San Jose Sharks acquired Marion Havlat and Brent Burns for Devon Setoguchi and Dany Heatley. This roster makeover isn't going to be a huge difference in the regular season where offence comes easier, but expect it to help in the playoffs, where Heatley was a huge disappointment. The Sharks also have a lot of cap space, and could easily add players at the deadline, which might be enough to push them over the top in the division race.

The Ducks are the third best team in the Pacific division, but I still predict they'll top 100 points. No one in the NHL can match their monster top line, and if Hiller is healthy, they have excellent goaltending. Teemu Selanne is back for another age-defying season of goalscoring as well.

The Dallas Stars are going to take a step backwards without the newly departed Brad Richards. Still, it won't be a huge setback, as they missed him for months last year due to injury.

Phoenix is going to suffer a collapse this year. The last two seasons they have been a huge underdog, winning close games largely through effort and superb goaltending. But now that Ilya Bryzgalov has jumped ship for the Flyers, all the Coyotes have left going for them is effort. And effort doesn't buy you a lot of wins without talent.

Central Division Predictions

Predicted Points and change from 2010-2011

1. Chicago Blackhawks 107 (+10)
2. Detroit Red Wings 99 (-5) 
3. Nashville 94 (-5)
4. Columbus Blue Jackets 91 (+10)
5. St Louis Blues 87

Last year, Patrick Kane and the Chicago Blackhawks took the fabled Stanley Cup hangover a bit too literally.

They played half-assed through the season and barely made the playoffs, backing into eighth place with a little help from other teams after losing their last game of the season.

And then they went down 3-0 in the first round to the Vancouver Canucks, the team that had been their personal punching bag the previous two playoff series.

But then the Hawks then woke up and showed their championship form, storming back to force a Game 7 before losing in overtime. 

Over the summer, the Hawks bulked up with the type of bruisers they used to win the Stanley Cup. Between the added muscle and rebound seasons for Toews, Kane, Keith and company, expect the Hawks to win the Central division.

The Detroit Red Wings have been the class of the NHL for the last two decades. They are going to take a step back this year due to the retirement of Brian Rafalski and the slipping play (by his standards) of Niklas Lidstrom. Still, they'll be comfortably in a playoff spot, and I wouldn't bet against them come playoff time.

The Predators are the best coached team in the NHL since the lockout. Barry Trotz gets more out of his roster year after year than any other coach. But he'll have to do even better this year, as Nashville lost several supporting players to free agency, such as playoff hero Joel Ward.

Also, expect to see Shea Weber, the winner of the largest arbitration award in NHL history, traded before the deadline for a massive package of picks and players. Nashville simply can't afford Weber's contract, not with Pekka Rinne and Ryan Suter coming up as unrestricted free agents next summer.

In Columbus, Rick Nash finally has a legitimate centre (I bet that makes Jarome Iginla jealous) in Jeff Carter. The Blue Jackets spent heavily, both on the trade market and free agency, and are poised to regain some of the ground they lost last year. Don't be surprised if this franchise makes their second appearance in the playoff this spring.

Last season the Blues were beset by injuries. Assuming they aren't plagued with them again, the Blues will be a better team. Unfortunately for them, everyone else in their division got better as well, except for Detroit. The Blues are going to struggle to match their point totals from last year against much stiffer competition in the Central division.

Western Conference Predictions

2011-2012 Predictions:

1. Vancouver 110 points
2. LA 108 points
3. Chicago 107 points
4. San Jose 105 points
5. Anaheim 104 points
6. Detroit 99 points
7. Nashville 94 points
8. Columbus 91 points

9. Dallas 90 points
10. St Louis 87 points
11. Minnesota 86 points
12. Phoenix 85 points
13. Calgary 84 points
14. Edmonton 72 points
15. Colorado 68 points

So in the end, Phoenix falls out of the playoff picture, and Columbus surges back into the postseason. Vancouver, LA and Chicago win their respective divisions, with Vancouver defending their Western Conference crown by the slimmest of margins, in large part due to the overall weakness of the Northwest division.

And much to the chagrin of the NHL and NBC, four of the top five teams in the West are in the Pacific timezone, making for more playoff games past the bedtimes of eastern viewers.

Maybe this year the Canucks and Hawks could shake it up and try meeting in the Conference Finals?