College Football Predictions Week 6: Michigan Wolverines Are on Upset Alert

The No. 12 Michigan Wolverines (5-0) will finally leave Ann Arbor for the first time this year when traveling to take on the Northwestern Wildcats (2-2) in both teams' second Big Ten Conference game.

Saturday night's kickoff from Ryan Field in Evanston, IL, will be at 7:00 EDT and will be televised on the Big Ten Network.

Oddsmakers made a drastic mistake in sending out the Wolverines as 10-point road favorites, as the number has been bet down to a touchdown.  The total has fallen just a half-point to 59.5.

Las Vegas sports books are stating that over 70 percent of moneyline wagers are coming in on the home underdog, which has caused the shift in the betting odds.

Let's take a look at this contest from a betting perspective.

Leaving the Big House for the First Time

Everything is going right for the Michigan Wolverines program, especially after its 35-31 come-from-behind win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as 3.5-point home underdogs in Week 2.

This is the latest the team is leaving the city limits of Ann Arbor since opening the 1976 campaign with five consecutive home games.

Saying things are different since Rich Rodriguez left is easier said than done, as the team has lost six of its last nine games away from Michigan Stadium.

Bettors have profited nicely with the squad's failure to cover seven of those nine contests.

Dan Persa, Northwestern Wildcats QB

The Northwestern Wildcats would be 4-0 if quarterback Dan Persa wasn't dealing with an Achilles issue that sidelined him for the first four games while also making him leave in the fourth quarter last week.

He completed 10-of-14 passes and threw for a career-high four touchdowns before exiting a 38-35 loss to the Illinois Fighting Illini as 9.5-point road underdogs.

The Wildcats led that contest by 18 points through the middle of the third quarter.

Watch out if he's able to stay on the field for a full 60 minutes.

Michigan has been vulnerable in the secondary when facing solid quarterbacks, which includes giving up 315 yards to Fighting Irish sophomore Tommy Rees.

Turnover Margin

The Michigan Wolverines rank first in the Big Ten in turnover differential, but Saturday's opponent is just a spot behind them.

Don't get me wrong, forcing 15 turnovers in the first five games is impressive, but those numbers can only go down when traveling in the Big Ten Conference.

Michigan will likely have to win this game on an even playing field.

Denard Robinson, Michigan Wolverines QB

Michigan Wolverines quarterback Denard Robinson is likely to have a big game, as Northwestern was unable to handle another dual-threat under center last week.

Illinois signal-caller Nathan Scheelhaase threw for 391 yards and three touchdowns with an interception while also gaining 35 yards on the ground and another score.

The offense is averaging 37.2 points a game and 440.8 yards, but those statistics take a back seat to the team's performance inside the 20-yard line.

Michigan has scored on 21-of-22 opportunities in the red zone, with 17 of those resulting in touchdowns.

Those are numbers that make the Wolverines appealing—no matter what the betting odds end up being at kickoff.

Northwestern Wildcats Are a Dangerous Underdog

The Northwestern Wildcats are one of the best underdogs in all of college football, represented by their 37-17 ATS mark when getting 3.5 to 10 points.

Head coach Pat Fitzgerald is a former player for the program, which allows him to fire up his squad after back-to-back defeats.

He has covered the number in eight straight games in that situation.

The Wildcats are also 5-6 straight-up when getting points within this range, which is a tremendous percentage despite being a game under .500.

Michigan Wolverines Are Terrible Road Favorites

An argument can be made that the Michigan Wolverines are the worst team in college football when being favored on the road.

The numbers don't lie.

Michigan has dropped its last four such contests against the number while winning just two of those contests in the past two-plus campaigns.

Dig deeper, and you find that the boys from Ann Arbor are 23-39 ATS when laying the wood outside of the Big House.

Brady Hoke

Michigan Wolverines fans are going to say this year is different because of head coach Brady Hoke, who is in the middle of his first year on campus.

The Rich Rodriguez years are behind them.

During his two years at San Diego State, Hoke failed to deliver a win in two opportunities as road chalk of nine points or less.

He dropped a 24-21 contest to the BYU Cougars last year as a 4.5-point road favorite while dropping a 34-20 decision when laying three points in Idaho during his first season.

Going back even farther, the 52-year-old didn't manage to win as a road favorite at Ball State until his fourth season.

He actually lost a 38-14 decision as a 10-point road favorite in his first year against Eastern Michigan.

Something to think about.

Avoiding Another Collapse

Everyone in the Michigan locker room knows that Week 6 of the season has been the start of previous collapses, resulting in a 4-18 straight-up record the past three years while burning money at a 2-18-1 ATS clip.

Until the clock hits 00:00 Saturday, Wolverines fans across the country will be holding their breath.

Prediction

It's quite obvious that things seem to be different this time around, especially on the defensive side of the ball.

Michigan is allowing just 10.2 points per game, which is far different than the 35.2 from just a season ago.

From a betting perspective, Northwestern was clearly the smart money play as 10-point road underdogs, but the line has stopped falling.

It's actually bounced back to 7.5 in some spots.

Wager at your own risk.