Bills vs. Eagles: Week 5 Preview and Keys to the Game

Before the 2011 season began, most experts would have predicted that the Week 5 contest between the Buffalo Bills and the Philadelphia Eagles had one team at 3-1 and one team at 1-3, that the 3-1 team would be the Eagles and the 1-3 team would be the Bills. Welcome to the wild and wacky world of the NFL in 2011, where nothing is as it seems. It is the Bills that are 3-1 and the Eagles that are 1-3.

This is a contest that is offering two potent offenses clashing this Sunday at Ralph Wilson Stadium, 1:00 pm kickoff. The game has been sold out for weeks, as the Bills fans want to see how well the Bills can play against the Eagles Nightmare, er.... Dream Team collection of All-Stars.

Michael Vick and Ryan Fitzpatrick will lead their respective teams into this contest, as both defenses will be tested in trying to slow down their opponents offenses. Both these offenses know how to move the chains, as the Eagles are ranked No. 3 in the NFL with 102 first downs, while the Bills are No. 5 with 93 first downs. The Bills average 33.3 points per game (No. 4 in NFL), while the Eagles average 25.3 points per game (No. 10 in NFL).

Both teams lost their starting left tackle last week, as Demetrius Bell (Bills) and ex-Bills Jason Peters (Eagles) are expected to miss this game. How well their replacements do could go a long way towards how this game turns out. Check out the preview as we explore these two teams.

Michael Vick Leads a Dynamic Eagles Offense

Last week against a very good San Francisco 49ers defense, Michael Vick had a dominating game. He passed for 416 yards, threw two touchdown passes and rushed for another 75 yards. He did all that with his right hand being protected by a Kevlar glove due to a recent injury, and one of the fingers on his throwing hand had to be popped back into place. Vick is tough and one dangerous quarterback to face.

Vick still poses as big a dual threat as he ever has in his career. He is currently ranked as the No. 19 best rusher in the NFL with an average of 57 yards gained on the ground per game. His average yardage per rush is 7.1, which leads the NFL (C.J. Spiller does not have enough carries to qualify, as his average is 7.2).

His receivers had a field day against the 49ers (who had ex-Bills Donte Whitner at safety—enough said). Wide receiver DeSean Jackson led the assault with 171 yards gained on six catches, while Jeremy Macklin chipped in with 74 yards and Jason Avant had 69 yards. Those three receivers will keep the Bills secondary occupied. The Eagles also have a solid tight end in Brent Celek, but he didn't get much play last Sunday.

LeSean McCoy is a gifted running back, but he was stonewalled last week against the 49ers run defense, as he picked up only 18 yards in nine carries for a pathetic 2.0 yards per carry. If the Bills can limit him to a similar game and take their chances with the Eagles passing game, they might be okay with that.

Vick has been sacked six times on the year. The Bills will look to exploit Jason Peter's replacement, King Dunlap, at left tackle. Containing Vick and trying to keep him in the pocket will be an on-going challenge for the Bills defense, specifically Nick Barnett and Andra Davis. If Davis is too slow to keep up with Vick, then you might see him getting spelled by Kelvin Sheppard.

Ryan Fitzpatrick Leads Strong Bills Offense

Ryan Fitzpatrick is ranked No. 9 in NFL Quarterback Passer Ratings with a 96.9 rating, while Michael Vick is right behind him at No. 11 with a 91.9. Fitzpatrick did not throw a touchdown pass last weekend in Cincinnati and now will be going up against the trio of talented Eagles corners in Nnamdi Asomugha, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Asante Samuel.

Fitzpatrick hopes to get the Bills offense humming again this week. He has weapons at his disposal as well. Fred Jackson is ranked at No. 4 among all NFL rushers with 369 yards through four weeks. Jackson is averaging a very strong 5.8 yards per rush and is averaging 92.3 yards per game this year. His backup, C.J. Spiller, is averaging 7.1 yards per rush this year, but needs to see more touches than he has lately.

The Bills have their share of pass receiving weapons as well. Steve Johnson is ranked No. 16 in the NFL with 314 yards in four weeks and is averaging 13.1 yards per catch. David Nelson is ranked No. 32 in the NFL with 251 yards in the season and is averaging 11.4 yards per catch.

Bills tight end Scott Chandler is tied at No. 4 in the NFL in scoring, with four touchdowns so far on the season. Steve Johnson is right behind him with three touchdowns.

The Bills are averaging 33.3 points per game, and if they can continue to score in the 30's, they have a good chance to continue winning games.

Week 5 Roster Adjustments for Bills and Eagles

For the Bills, Demetrius Bell is definitely out for this week. He is going to be replaced by rookie Chris Hairston at left tackle. The Eagles lead the NFL in sacks with 15 total, but one of their sack leaders, defensive end Trent Cole, will miss this week due to an injury suffered last Sunday, a calf strain.

For the Eagles, their left tackle Jason Peters is out. He is replaced by King Dunlap. Look for the Bills to force the issue on Dunlap with some blitzes to see how well he is picking things up. Whether the point of attack comes from Shawne Merriman, Marcell Dareus, Chris Kelsay, Alex Carrington or Danny Batten, expect to see the Bills attacking from Dunlap's side.

When this is going to publication, we are not aware of Terrence McGee's status for Sunday. He has resumed practicing again, as has starting guard Kraig Urbik. It is possible that both players could see some action on Sunday. With as many weapons as the Eagles have, it would be a plus to have McGee available to play, especially since Aaron Williams is still out due to his collarbone injury.

The Eagles also lost Antonio Dixon last week. He was one of the Eagles better run-stuffing defensive tackles, so that will be a blow to the Eagles defense. He is being replaced by DT Derek Landri, who has been out of football in the 2011 season until this week. That should give the Bills running game more reason to test the interior of the Eagles defense, which has been experiencing problems with their linebackers.

Should Be a Game with Lots of Big Plays

Thanks to Chris Brown at BuffaloBills.com for coming up with the research on the following items:

"Through the first four games, the number of big plays (15 yards or more) given up by Buffalo’s defense has numbered 39. That’s 15 percent of the total plays run against the Bills this season (260)."

"That may not seem like much, but Buffalo has given up the fifth most “big run plays” (10 yards), allowing 15 thus far, and the fifth most “big pass plays” (25 yards) with 10, in the league. It’s why at the season’s quarter pole Buffalo has surrendered more total yards (1,620) than they did through the first four games in 2010 (1,556)."

"This weekm they face a Philadelphia offense that ranks first in the league in big plays with 25 rushes of 10 yards or more and nine pass plays of 25 yards or more for a total of 34 in just four games. Buffalo’s offense is tied for fourth most with 26."

If you want to see the entire article, here is a link to it. The bullets described above show how difficult the task at hand is and how challenged the Bills defense will be to keep the big plays to a minimum. You can try to contain Vick, but then you might allow one of his weapons beat you, or you can try to defend against all his weapons, and then Vick beats you. You have a very hard time trying to do both.

Bills Are Still Viewed as a Top 10 NFL Team in Power Rankings

Despite their loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, it is still gratifying to see that media outlets like the NFL Network and ESPN still think highly enough of the Bills to include them in the top 10 of the latest power ranking polls.

NFL Network has the Bills ranked No. 10, while ESPN has the Bills ranked No. 9. Both polls have the Eagles ranked No. 20.

If the Bills can win Sunday, that will give them a record of 3-0 against playoff teams from the 2010 season. That should be all the proof that the rest of the league needs to know that this Bills team is for real.

One other thing to know for this game is that the Bills are doing a much better job of taking care of the ball than the Eagles do. The Bills are tied for first place in the AFC with a plus-seven in turnovers ratio, while the Eagles are last in the NFC with a negative-six. That could very well play a huge role in Sunday's final outcome. The Bills are tied for the lead in interceptions in the NFL with the Green Bay Packers, as each team has eight picks already. 

Each quarterback has thrown three interceptions on the year so far. Fitzpatrick has nine touchdown passes while Vick has six. Vick has not had a rushing touchdown yet so far this season.

Eagles Pass Rush vs. the Bills Offensive Line

There is no bigger contradiction in these two teams than the Bills' ability to protect their quarterback, versus the Eagles ability to sack the quarterback.

The Eagles defense is tied for the lead in the NFL with 15 sacks, while Ryan Fitzpatrick is tied with Jason Campbell for fewest sacks on the season (two each). So, something has to give on Sunday. Either the Eagles defense is too much for the Bills offensive line to handle, or the Eagles defense will realize what the rest of the league has determined: that it is almost impossible to sack Fitzpatrick because he releases the ball too fast for defenses to get to him.

The Bills will need to do a better job of sticking with the running game in the second half this week. The Eagles rush defense is ranked No. 30 in the NFL, as they allow 139 yards per game on the ground. That should be sweet music to the ears of Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. The Bills need to test the interior defense of the Eagles and find out if they are still having problems with their linebackers. Rookie Casey Matthews has been taken advantage of, and they have been moving him around in the defense.

The Eagles started Matthews out at middle LB, but he didn't fare too well there. They moved him to the weak side or "Will LB," but he didn't do well there either, so they have now benched him. Jamar Chaney is the middle LB, Moise Fokou is the Sam LB, and rookie Brian Rolle is the new Will LB. Rolle is very small for a linebacker at just 5'10" and 229 pounds, so it would make sense for the Bills to run at him to see how he holds up. 

The Eagles made the unusual move of promoting offensive line coach Juan Castillo to defensive coordinator this year. Castillo had been the O-line coach for the previous 13 years, but who knows why head coach Andy Reid makes some of the moves that he does.

Are the Eagles a Dream Team or a Nightmare?

The Philadelphia Eagles made the biggest splash of all 32 teams in the NFL during the free agency feeding frenzy when the labor lockout was finally lifted by the league. The Eagles signed the following free agents: WR Steve Smith (NYG), RB Ronnie Brown (MIA), S Jarrad Page (NE), G Evan Mathis (CIN), NT Cullen Jenkins (GB), CB Nnamdi Asomugha (OAK), QB Vince Young (TEN) and DE Jason Babin (TEN), and they traded for CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.

That is one amazing haul, and when Vince Young jokingly referred to the team as a "Dream Team," the media took the reference and ran with it. Four weeks into the season, and the dream team is faced with a 1-3 and a three game losing streak.

How could it have gone so wrong so fast? Well, for one thing, putting all this talent together and expecting it to gel overnight is hard to do. They time to get used to working together. I would expect them to be playing a better brand of football in the second half of the season than the first half. You can also thank the bizarre training camps and limited practice settings for some of the Eagles issues.

Then there are the problems they experience in the second half. In the past three weeks, the Eagles have allowed an average of 19 points to be scored in the second half, given up an average of 212 yards of offense and allowed an average of 141.7 passing yards allowed. The dream team defense has generated just one turnover in those three games during the second half.

If the Eagles can't turn this team around over the final 12 games, then either Andy Reid or Juan Castillo will have to be held accountable. My guess is that it would be Reid that gets the boot.

Inside the Numbers: When the Bills Have the Ball

The Buffalo Bills have the No. 9 ranked overall offense in the NFL, as they average 391.5 yards per game. The Philadelphia Eagles have the overall No. 16 ranked defense, allowing 357 yards per game.

The Bills have the No. 12 ranked pass offense, averaging 254.5 yards per game, while the Eagles have the No. 11 pass defense in the league, allowing an average of 217 yards per game.

The Bills have the No. 5 rush offense in the league, averaging 137.0 yards per game, while the Eagles have the No. 30 ranked run defense, giving up 139 yards per game.

The Bills are converting on 38 percent of their third down opportunities (19/50), which ranks them No. 13 in the NFL in that category. The Eagles defense is allowing 36.7 percent of the third down opportunities against them to be converted (18/49), and they are ranked No. 12 in the NFL in that stat.

Ryan Fitzpatrick will probably be looking to test the Eagles safeties more than the cornerbacks. It will be interesting to see how often he throws the ball to the side where Nnamdi Asomugha is playing. If anything, the Bills will be looking to run more than usual, as the Eagles interior defense is not as strong. They have a small LB on the weak side, and they lost Trent Cole, which is a huge boost for the Bills.

The Bills did not use Brad Smith in the Wildcat last week, so expect to see him back this week to run the Wildcat offense on some key short yardage situations.

Inside the Numbers: When the Eagles Have the Ball

The Philadelphia Eagles offense is ranked No. 4 in the NFL, as they average 434.8 yards per game. The Buffalo Bills defense is ranked No. 27, as they are giving up 405 yards per game. The Eagles pass offense is ranked No. 9, as they average 271.3 yards per game, while the Bills pass defense is ranked No. 24, as they give up 275 yards per game. The Eagles rush offense is ranked No. 2 in the NFL, as they average 163.5 yards per game, while the Bills rush defense is ranked No. 25, giving up 129 yards per game.

The Eagles have been converting 48 percent of their third down opportunities (25-of-52) so far, which ranks them as No. 5 in the NFL. The Bills defense is allowing 19-of-46 third down opportunities to be converted, which is 41.3 percent, good for No. 20 in the NFL.

The Bills defense may have their stiffest test of the year this Sunday. The Eagles just have a ton of weapons on offense, and you can try to defend all of them, but then Michael Vick is left free to run around like crazy. He is the one intangible in this game that makes it so hard to predict. It is vital that the Bills pass rush puts pressure on him, but also maintains a controlled pocket so that he can't escape.

The Bills will have to employ a defense that has middle linebackers Nick Barnett and Andra Davis aware of what Vick is doing, and George Wilson and Jairus Byrd on their toes as well. They will also have their hands full with the speed of DeSean Jackson.

Final Thoughts and Prediction

I really expect this to be an exciting game. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Steve Johnson have a chance to prove how good they are against some of the best defensive backs that the NFL has to offer. The Bills defense will be stretched all over the field Sunday, so they will have to be playing at their best as well.

It would not be a surprise if the Eagles got off to a lead in the first half, as the Bills will need to make some second-half adjustments, which is something that Chan Gailey does very well.

The Bills need to be better balanced on their offensive attack this week than they were against the Bengals. Fred Jackson should see at least 20 carries this week, as the Bills want to keep Michael Vick on the bench as long as they can. If the Bills offense comes up with six three-and-out drives like they did last Sunday, then I don't think they will win.

As the Philadelphia Eagles have been demonstrating second-half collapses for the past three weeks, this game should be no different. So, no matter what the score is at halftime, Bills fans should stay put and cheer on the comeback.

I will not be conducting my live blog this Sunday, as I will be in attendance instead at the Ralph. If any Bills fans on Bleacher Report want to stop by to say hello either before or after the game, I will be sitting in the end zone under the big scoreboard, Section 244 Row 4. You will probably see me writing notes on my I-Pad. Feel free to stop by and share your thoughts on the game or on our coverage of the Bills.

My prediction for the Week 5 contest: Buffalo Bills 33 - Philadelphia Eagles 31