NFL Picks Week 5: Setting Upset Odds for Every Game This Weekend

The National Football League lives by the mantra of "Anybody Can Win On Any Given Sunday," which is true to a degree, but also a little far-fetched.

Underdogs have posted a 19-45 straight-up record through four weeks this season, which calculates to a winning percentage of 29.69.

Sharp bettors love to play home underdogs on the moneyline, as it's one of the most profitable ways of winning in this game, but they are also hitting at a 37.5 percent clip (9-15).

Let's take a look at this week's games using an upset alert level ranging from zero to 10, with zero being the low end of probability.

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-3)

The Kansas City Chiefs can definitely pull off the upset here, as momentum swings are on different ends of the spectrum.

Indianapolis comes in off a short week and has been out-gained in all four games this season, which has ultimately led to an 0-4 SU record and 2-2 ATS mark.

Kansas City picked up a 22-17 win over the Minnesota Vikings last week as three-point home underdogs for its first win of the 2011 campaign.

What's interesting is the fact that the oddsmakers have made the Colts favorites for the first time this year.

More than 70 percent of the early wagering in terms of betting against the spread has come in on the home team in this contest, which is shocking.

Even with the loss of starting running back Jamaal Charles, Kansas City is a respectable 14th in the league in rushing, averaging 110.8 yards a game.

Do you know which team has historically been bad in playing the run due to undersized defensive ends?

You guessed it: Indianapolis.

Upset Alert Level:  8

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)

It's amazing to find that both of these teams have played a combined eight games and all of those contests have been decided by a touchdown or less.

Still, the verdict isn't very good in terms of wins and losses, as Arizona will have the only win between the two when they take the field Sunday.

Obviously, the probability of an upset in this matchup is high, but the Cardinals are 1-6 SU after two or more consecutive losses.

Minnesota is still 13-5 SU in home games the last two-plus years, while blowing double-digit halftime leads in both tries this year.

Three times a charm?

Upset Alert Level:  5

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Buffalo Bills

What I'm hearing from my Las Vegas contacts is that everyone is betting Philadelphia, but in straight-up fashion.

Bettors don't want any part of laying the three points on the "Dream Team."

To me, that's making a strong case for the home underdog Buffalo Bills, who have already beat the New England Patriots and Oakland Raiders on this field.

Throw out Buffalo's loss against Cincinnati last week, as the situation was tough to overcome, coming off consecutive come-from-behind victories of 18 or more points.

Halloween is still more than three weeks away, but Philadelphia bettors will be scared to death when this game turns to the fourth quarter.

The Eagles have been outscored 36-0 in the final 15 minutes the past three weeks.

Nobody circles the wagons like, well, you know.

Upset Alert Level:  7

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-6)

The Houston Texans are one of the more offensively talented teams in the NFL, but the pure vertical threat on the outside is out of this game with a hamstring injury.

Bettors are pretty split on this game, but sharp bettors know how important Andre Johnson is to game plan against as an opposing defense.

The home team also finds itself in a massive sandwich game, coming off a 17-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, looking dead ahead at the Baltimore Ravens.

Oakland was just 14 seconds away from bringing in a perfect 2-0 record, falling to the Buffalo Bills by a 38-35 score in the second week of the season.

Historically, the next week isn't very pretty for teams after facing the outfit out of the Steel City.

Just ask the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2.

Still, I must keep this number within reason, as the Raiders are 29th in the league against the run.

I've heard the home team can mix it up with the best of them on the ground.

Upset Alert Level:  5

New Orleans Saints (-6) at Carolina Panthers

The New Orleans Saints are a pretty solid road team in terms of taking care of business, which I attribute to having pretty solid leadership at the quarterback position.

Drew Brees has led this team to a 7-1 SU record as a road favorite of 3.5 to seven points the last two-plus seasons.

Carolina is on the come, but is also 3-11 SU when playing as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

I know, it's a different year.

Cam Newton has lost to Kevin Kolb, Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler. The only opposing quarterback he has beaten? Blaine Gabbert.

Not ready to pull the trigger on a major score.

Upset Alert Level:  2

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)

I'm a little concerned with over 80 percent of the bets coming in on the Cincinnati Bengals, but I did pick them to cover as an underdog this week.

Many are focusing in on the availability of Bengals running back Cedric Benson, as a potential suspension is looming over him on a weekly basis due to offseason conduct.

I know that the visitor's schedule hasn't been very imposing, but it's resulted in having the No. 1 defense in the league.

Those numbers will go up, but Jacksonville has failed to score just 39 points this season.

Upset Alert Level:  10

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

This is going to be a popular upset pick due to the injuries that Pittsburgh is suffering right now—and that's exactly why I don't think it's going to happen.

Tennessee is happy with a 3-1 record at this stage, which doesn't bode well from a motivational standpoint when facing an angry home team that could fall a game under .500.

I believe that the Steel City rallies for a win—at least for one week.

Upset Alert Level:  3

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (-10)

I'd love to put New York Giants fans at a heightened sense of alert in this contest, but from a handicapping standpoint, I just don't see it.

Seattle head coach Pete Carroll flies his team across the country, motivating his players by stating that going into a bye week with a victory in hand would be tremendous.

Problem is, it didn't work last year.

The Seahawks handed San Diego a 27-20 loss in Week 3 in 2010, only to fall 20-3 in St. Louis before a Week 5 bye.

Not going to happen with Eli Manning's confidence at a sky-high level with eight touchdowns and just two interceptions this year.

Upset Alert Level:  0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

Both teams come in with 3-1 records, but neither team wanted to be favored in this contest, as both are tremendous underdogs.

Don't get blinded by Tampa Bay managing to beat the hapless Indianapolis Colts by just seven points on Monday night, as the team out-gained them by 148 yards.

San Francisco has lost the statistical battle in all four games this year.

49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh may be changing the culture in the Bay Area, but the team has also dropped all five games versus NFC South opponents the last two-plus campaigns.

The only thing that may save them is the visitor looking ahead to hosting New Orleans in Week 6.

Upset Alert Level:  7

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-9)

Anything is possible when the league's worst defense is laying nearly double digits against a division rival. Problem is, that same team features the best offense by a wide margin.

New England is also seeking massive revenge from last year's playoff loss, which may turn this into a similar blowout when the two teams met during the regular season in Foxborough.

You know, a 45-3 blowout by the Patriots over the Jets.

Linebacker Jerod Mayo being lost until mid-November isn't going to allow the home team to improve upon its porous defensive numbers.

I just don't think Tom Brady is going to let this happen.

But then again, the league's "Golden Boy" saw his opportunity to win his fourth ring get shattered against this Sunday's opponent.

Upset Alert Level:  5

San Diego Chargers (-4) at Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos' playoff hopes are over if they lose this game. 

Let me repeat that: The Denver Broncos' playoff hopes are over if they lost this game.

With that being said, San Diego isn't exactly the safest play on any given week, as Norv Turner has led this team to a 5-10 ATS record as a road favorite the last three years.

For this article's sake, we're just examining if they can win in straight-up fashion.

The Chargers 3-3 SU record when favored by 3.5 to 7 points away from Southern California signifies anything is possible.

Also, the line moving down from six to four also suggests that some in Las Vegas are thinking the same thing.

Upset Alert Level:  6

Green Bay Packers (-6) at Atlanta Falcons

Las Vegas oddsmakers had no choice but to send the defending Super Bowl champions out at such a high price.

After all, Green Bay has done nothing this year to sway public opinion that it's not the best team in football once again.

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is putting up "video game-type numbers," but the defense's early season drop-off is a concern.

The different in this line is a full seven points from last year's playoff meeting, a game that Green Bay won easily by a 48-21 score as one-point underdogs.

In a regular-season meeting that took place on Nov. 28 of last year, Atlanta came away with a 20-17 win as 2.5-point home favorites.

A straight-up underdog win is going to be tough, especially when getting out-gained by a 860-488 margin in two meetings just a season ago.

Playoff revenge as a home underdog is always a powerful thing.

I'm split on the issue—so is the alert level.

Upset Alert Level:  5

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-6)

The Detroit Lions have been sent out as six-point home favorites in this contest—for good reason—but the Chicago Bears have actually won the last six meetings in straight-up fashion.

That fact alone raises the level of concern for bettors willing to lay the points.

Detroit is definitely not the same team, but is it an emotionally spent squad after consecutive comeback victories that the league has never seen before?

That's the question you have to ask yourself when handicapping this game.

I believe, playing its first Monday Night Football game at home in quite some time, allows the young roster to get up for the contest emotionally for the first 30 minutes.

It's the final 30 that should concern fans inside Ford Field.

In the end, I could easily see Bears quarterback Jay Cutler being more focused on the ABC broadcast of Dancing with the Stars, but he doesn't have to worry about that anymore with his former fiancee getting eliminated just a day after he was in the crowd.

What a shame.

Upset Alert Level:  7