NFL Predictions Week 4: Picking All 16 Winners

Last Week:  10 - 6

Season:   31 - 17

It has been an exciting start to the 2011 NFL season.  One thing to note is there are three undefeated teams left at 3-0.  Of the three teams, one is the defending Super Bowl Champion right on schedule, but the other two haven't even made the playoffs since 1999.

The Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills are the talk of the town right now while teams like the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons find themselves at 1-2.  These are the teams that were likened to a "Dream Team" and compared themselves to the "Greatest Show on Turf."

Good news for the teams looking up at the division leaders, it's very early.  There are 13 games left to play for everyone.  This week packs away the first quarter of the schedule.  Let's see if each team can keep up their good play or reverse their bad fortune.

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears, Sunday, 1:00 PM

Both teams come into this game at a disappointing 1-2 record.  The Bears, though, have had arguably the toughest schedule in the league having had to face Atlanta, New Orleans and Green Bay to start the year.  They welcome the upstart Panthers and Cam Newton to Solider Field to start their turnaround.

The Carolina Panthers have become energized behind the play of No. 1 overall pick Cam Newton at quarterback.  In fact, last week Newton came up short of 400 yards passing for the first time all year, but got the more-important win.

Even though Newton may come in overshadowing Jay Cutler of the Bears in most passing statistics, Cutler has a more complete team surrounding him.

The Panthers' leading rusher three games into the year is still their quarterback, with under 100 yards.  The Bears running game hasn't been that effective, either, but they aren't afraid to get Matt Forte involved through the air.  I look for the more flexible offense and better all-around defense to win this one.

Prediction:

Chicago Bears over Carolina Panthers     27 - 17

Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, 1:00 PM

I love seeing other media outlets calling the Buffalo Bills the "No Name Bills" and explaining to us who Ryan Fitzpatrick and Fred Jackson are.  If you just found out Fitzpatrick went to Harvard, you never saw a Bills game because they tell us every time.  Nonetheless, it's great to see these guys winning.

They always had talent offensively, but now they're showing some grit by winning these games late in the fourth quarter.  And the defense!  Don't forget about the defense, even though they have given up 66 points the last two weeks they are making plays.  Picking off Tom Brady an entire 2010 season's worth in one game is making plays.

To this week's game, unless they overlook the Bengals, they should be able to move the ball as they have all year long.  I don't see they Bills overlooking teams just yet, they're only 3-0, they know these things. Right?

The Bengals had a tough game last week, scoring only eight points against San Francisco.  They can expect to move to ball a little better this week but will be playing from behind.  Fitzpatrick and the Bills keep the ball rolling with another 30-point offensive output.

Prediction:

Buffalo Bills over Cincinnati Bengals    30 - 20

Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns, Sunday, 1:00 PM

Both the Browns and the Titans are coming into this game on two-game winning streaks.  Colt McCoy had another game where he failed to complete 50 percent of his passes but led the comeback drive for the win. 

Matt Hasselbeck continues to impress at his age with almost 1,000 yards passing in three games, but he will go the rest of the year without his top target, Kenny Britt.  Nate Washington took over nicely after Britt left last week's contest, but I don't think anyone would say he can bring the same game to the table Britt did.

This one will come down to the run anyways.  Everyone knows Peyton Hillis is the focal point of the Browns offense and he faces the Titans rush defense that gives up only 89 yards per game.  On the other side, the Titans have the league's worst rushing attack, gaining only 51 yards per game.

The Browns give up 128 per game, and I am going to continue to say Chris Johnson is ready to get on track until he does.  This is the week! (again)

Prediction:

Tennessee Titans over Cleveland Browns    24 - 20

Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys, Sunday, 1:00 PM

This is an intriguing match-up with the undefeated Lions coming to Dallas, where they are playing inspired football behind banged up Tony Romo.  The Cowboys, despite all the media attention, were nine minutes away from being 3-0 as well and are playing good football on defense.

Rob Ryan has the Cowboys defense at No. 5 overall and leading the league in sacks.  The Lions, as everyone knows, boast the most feared front four, led by Ndamukong Suh.  All I can hope for in this one is both quarterbacks finish the game, as they both have injury question marks.

I think the winner of this game will be the team that can get the run game going.  They both average only 78 yards on the ground per game.  Felix Jones did have a career high last Monday vs. Washington, providing a little optimism there.

Calvin Johnson should have an immense impact against the smaller, beat up secondary of the Cowboys as well.   The strength at receiver for the Lions is the biggest concern for the Cowboys at the moment.  I see the Lions up most of the game, but another gutsy Tony Romo finish shocking the unbeaten Lions.

Prediction:

Dallas Cowboys over Detroit Lions     31 - 30

Minnesota Vikings @ Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, 1:00 PM

The Kansas City Chiefs sure fooled me.  When it seemed they were ready to lay down and die, they played their toughest game on the road in San Diego last week.  Todd Haley may have them remembering they were 11-5 just a year ago.

While they are still reeling from the loss of Jamaal Charles, they are getting that burst each carry from Dexter McCluster.  The problem is the Vikings have been stuffing the run all season long.  What they have been giving up is the pass, and especially in the second half.

For the Chiefs, if they want expose the Vikings' second-half meltdowns, they need Matt Cassel to protect the ball better; he has five interceptions early on this season.  Good news for Minnesota: the Chiefs have been blown out their last three games at Arrowhead Stadium.

I see the Vikings giving the Chiefs a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson and finally putting four quarters together against a down Kansas City club.

Prediction:

Minnesota Vikings over Kansas City Chiefs    27 - 21

Washington Redskins @ St. Louis Rams, Sunday, 1:00 PM

If the Rams want a shot at the NFC West crown this year, they have to turn it around now, and in a big way.  They have faced a brutal schedule thus far and now face a very confident Washington Redskins team following a loss of their own.

The Rams are 0-3 but did beat the Redskins in St. Louis last year.  Now they may be welcoming back one of Sam Bradford's favorites in Danny Amendola and should see Steven Jackson a little healthier this week.

The Redskins lost a tough NFC East showdown to the Cowboys on Monday night and should be ready to go in this one.  Both teams really want this win, but I think the return of super safety Laron Landry is the key in this one. 

Points won't come easily for the Rams against a fired-up Redskins defense.  The Redskins love to run the ball under Mike Shanahan, and the Rams having given up 174 yards per game on the ground this year will make the play calling fairly easy.

Prediction:

Washington Redskins over St. Louis Rams    27 - 20

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, 1:00 PM

Jim Harbaugh's 49ers come into this game 2-1 with their only loss to an NFC East opponent.  They will face another tough NFC East team here.  The Eagles' season is not starting the way they imagined, having Michael Vick unable to finish each of the last two games that resulted in losses. 

The Eagles have the league's No. 2 rushing attack coming into this game, which can ease the health issues of their star quarterback.  They do face the league's No. 3 rush defense, though.  The 49ers only give up 2.9 yards per carry, but they have not seen a back like LeSean McCoy this season.  Something has to give.

The good news for Philadelphia is the 49ers do not have a very intimidating pass rush, which could mean Michael Vick can finish the game. The Eagles' troubles against the pass will also face an even less intimidating pass attack led by maligned quarterback Alex Smith of San Francisco.

The 49ers have played tough defense this year, but with all the weapons on the field, the Eagles have an offense that is very tough to stop.

Prediction:

Philadelphia Eagles over San Francisco 49ers    31 - 16

New Orleans Saints @ Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, 1:00 PM

The Saints come into this one at 2-1 with the NFC's highest scoring offense.  They also welcome back Drew Brees' favorite receiver Marques Colston. 

The problem here for the Jaguars will be trying to keep up with the Saints.  The Jaguars and Maurice Jones-Drew boast an impressive running game, but you need to be able to throw to match the Saints offense.

Blaine Gabbert, Luke McCown and the Jaguars passing game has produced more than double the interceptions to touchdowns this year.  That does not bode well for Jacksonville in this one.

Too much Saints for the Jaguars to play their defensive-minded low-scoring football in this one.

Prediction:

New Orleans Saints over Jacksonville Jaguars    34 - 20

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans, Sunday, 1:00 PM

This week offers another shot for the up-and-coming Houston Texans to beat an elite team.  The story here is Pittsburgh does not look like the elite team of old.  Barely beating the Colts on Sunday night last week was not a reassuring show for Pittsburgh fans.

The Texans had their chances in a back-and-forth games against the New Orleans Saints, but in the end, Matt Schaub was out-dueled by Drew Brees. 

If the Texans want to win this one, they will need to stop Mike Wallace.  They gave up 23 fourth-quarter points to the Saints last week and Wallace will be their biggest hurdle this week.  He comes in having tallied six straight 100-yard games.

The Texans offense should be on display again this week, especially since star running back Arian Foster appears fully ready to go.

The Steelers are having enough problems on defense for the Texans to be able to score in bunches the way Baltimore did against them. 

Prediction:

Houston Texans over Pittsburgh Steelers    26 - 24

New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, 1:00 PM

The Giants have done what they needed to do.  After losing a division match-up with the Washington Redskins, they beat the Philadelphia Eagles last week to pull into a three-way tie in the NFC East's top spot.

This week they face the 1-2 Cardinals in Arizona.  The Cardinals have dropped a couple of close games so far this season but are playing decent football.  Beanie Wells has run well and Larry Fitzgerald is certainly happy about the Kevin Kolb addition.

The Giants will win or lose depending on how Eli Manning plays.  After his slow start, he is actually putting up good numbers with six touchdowns to only two interceptions.

I think this one will be about the star receivers making plays when they are called upon, but mainly the running games.  If Beanie Wells can give Arizona some balance, then they can win this one at home.

Prediction:

Arizona Cardinals over New York Giants    24 - 23

Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks, Sunday, 4:05 PM

The Falcons have all the talent on paper, but it's not turning into much on the field.  The reason?  Matt Ryan has been running for his life.  The offensive line has not given him much time at all, and he's taken an early-season beating. 

The Seahawks, though, are one of only two teams that have given up more sacks than the Atlanta Falcons, so they are having protection issues of their own.  The good news for both teams is the lack of a pass rush from either team. 

It is always a battle trying to win in Seattle; ask the New Orleans Saints.  The crowd is insanely loud.  For Matt Ryan, it may not be fun, but with Seattle's lack of a pass rush, he might be able to get some balls out to Julio Jones and Roddy White before the fourth quarter.

Both teams are struggling here, but not many teams are struggling like the Seattle Seahawks.  They have only gained an average of 215 yards of offense per game.  The Falcons will have a good shot at getting things on track this week before they dig themselves into too big a hole.

Prediction:

Atlanta Falcons over Seattle Seahawks   23 - 13

Denver Broncos @ Green Bay Packers, Sunday, 4:15 PM

The Packers are defending their Super Bowl Title pretty nicely to start the season at 3-0.  They have been close in each contest, though, and behind the scenes have given up more yards than they have gained.

They do have one of the most balanced offenses in the league, though, averaging nearly 300 yards passing and over 100 yards rushing per game.  Their big downfall has been giving up yards through the air.  On the ground they are tops in the league, giving up a measly 55 yards a game.

The Broncos and John Fox saw quarterback Kyle Orton throw for a season-low 172 yards last week, which shows Fox is really attempting to bring his run-oriented offense to Denver.

This may not be the week for that philosophy.  With the struggle to stop the pass for the Packers this has the makings for a big week for Kyle Orton.  If they try to pound the ball too much, they won't have a chance as Aaron Rodgers utilizes almost every drive and turns it into points.

Too much talent on the Green Bay side of the ball and a evolving Denver Broncos team equals another win for the Packers.

Prediction:

Green Bay Packers over Denver Broncos    37 - 23

New England Patriots @ Oakland Raiders, Sunday, 4:15 PM

The Oakland Raiders are really shaping up to be a team to watch this season.  After an impressive 8-8 finish a year ago, they open up 2-1 after a signature beating of the New York Jets. 

They ran the ball all over one of the toughest, mouthiest defenses in the league.  This week, they face a defense that has given up points to everyone they have played.

The New England Patriots saw the Buffalo Bills, a team they hadn't lost to since 2003, come back from 21-0 and beat them.  The Patriots, much like the Packers, have everything going on offense, but are struggling to stop opponents.

If it weren't for the level of respect I have for Bill Belichick and Tom Brady's knowledge of the game, I would say they were in trouble.  Tom Brady, though, is what they call a gamer and he'll be ready to avenge his four interceptions this week.

The Raiders are playing really smart football riding Darren McFadden and letting Jason Campbell play conservatively at quarterback keeping their mistakes to a minimum.

The Raiders, having just beat one AFC East giant, will be up for the challenge this week, and I expect a closer game than some expect.  With Tom Brady on the Patriots sideline, though, it's tough to bet against them.

Prediction:

New England Patriots over Oakland Raiders   34 - 31

Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers, Sunday, 4:15 PM

The San Diego Chargers just had a scare from the Kansas City Chiefs, who we all had buried a week before after being outscored 89-10 in two games.  The Chargers are still loaded with talent and were, possibly, the subject to a division rival playing up to their opponent.

Still worried about lingering Antonio Gates injuries, the Chargers come into this game with Phillip Rivers having a rocky start.  He has six interceptions to only four touchdowns, not characteristic for one of the game's most efficient quarterbacks.

The Miami Dolphins come into this match-up after dropping a game they should have won against the Cleveland Browns in the last two minutes.

In this game, there is way too much talent in San Diego, and being at home, I don't see the visiting Dolphins, who can't beat the Browns, giving up much of a fight.

Prediction:

San Diego Chargers over Miami Dolphins     27 - 16

New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, 8:20 PM

This is a match-up I love.  Here we have two smash-mouth teams that love to bring the big hits. 

In a rematch of last year's season-opening 10-6 finish, we see two very prideful defenses that have given up their share of points this season. 

The Ravens have been extra sharp except for a 26-13 defeat suffered to the Titans.  The Jets are coming off a 34-24 defeat by the Raiders last week in a game they were run all over.

Ray Rice leads a Baltimore rushing attack that looks to build off the success the Raiders' Darren McFadden had against the Jets a week ago. 

This game being in Baltimore and the Jets' struggles a week ago bode well for an equally confident Ravens group.

What I love about these games is the amount of confidence coming in on both sides and the amount of hard hits they expect to deliver.  Either way, this Sunday Night Football special will be one to watch.

Prediction:

Baltimore Ravens over New York Jets    20 - 16

Indianapolis Colts @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Monday, 8:30 PM

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off an emotional win vs. their division rival they must overcome to make the playoffs this year, the Atlanta Falcons. 

They had lost to the Falcons their five previous match-ups.  Now they welcome the Indianapolis Colts minus Peyton Manning, which is almost becoming a verb following the Colts name.

The Colts, though, played inspired football last week and lost to the 2010 AFC champion Pittsburgh Steelers on a last-second field goal. 

The Colts may be ready to compete even without their best quarterback in franchise history, but on the road this week, they will be deflated by the hard-nosed play Raheem Morris has brought to Tampa Bay.

Even though the Colts played their best game a week ago, so did Tampa Bay in grinding out a win against last year's NFC South Champion.

The Buccaneers control the pace in this one and shut down the Colts for a 3-1 start.

Prediction:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Indianapolis Colts    31-23