Fantasy Football Projections Week 4: Sleepers and Predictions

We reach the quarter point in the season this week and hasn't it gone fast?

The Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills are the only undefeated teams left in the NFL, which is as hard to believe as Tom Brady throwing four interceptions in one game.

Big performances last week from Darren McFadden, Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker may have guided you to victory over your opponent last week, whilst Michael Vick, Rashard Mendenhall or Steve Smith (who knew monsoon season was due to hit Carolina?) put up unimpressive numbers.

Another season ending ACL injury, this time to Titans receiver Kenny Britt, may have messed up your team.

No need to worry though, as here comes your weekly picks and a couple of sleepers, as well.

Carolina @ Chicago

Picks Against Spread - Chicago by seven

Yahoo Community Pick'em

Chicago 89 percent
Carolina 11 percent

My Pick - Chicago

A lot of pressure has been put on Mike Martz for his play calling, but a deeper look at things show how the imbalanced Chicago offense isn’t all Martz’s fault. As an offensive coordinator, you have to either play against the other team’s weaknesses or play to your own strengths.

Chicago’s rushing game is far from their strongest asset, with Matt Forte racking up a total of two yards on the ground. It’s all well and good having a balanced offense but when the running back is averaging 0.2 yards a carry behind a horrific offensive line, it’s not going to dramatically improve.

As for Carolina, they got a win but it sure wasn’t pretty. Torrential rain may have reduced the quality of the game, but even before hand, Cam Newton was far from impressive. This week he plays a very stingy Chicago defence on the road, which is a tough challenge for most quarterbacks.

We’ve seen Cam Newton make big throws rather than matriculate the ball down the field, which is perfect for the Bears.  The Bears philosophy of giving up the underneath throws and making the opponent impatient will ultimately force the downfield throw.

Buffalo @ Cincinnati

Picks Against Spread - Buffalo by three

Yahoo Community Pick'em

Buffalo 93 percent
Cincinnati seven percent

My Pick - Buafflo

Coming into week four, Buffalo are the only undefeated team left in the AFC.

Who would have guessed that at the start of the season?

With two of the three opening games against AFC divisional champions last year, the Bills are convincing people they are legitimate contenders.

Then we look at the Cincinnati Bengals. One small victory for the team is that it looks like Cedric Benson will be available for them this weekend as he appeals his three game suspension. I don’t believe that will be enough to stop a Buffalo team full of confidence achieving its fourth consecutive victory to start the season

Tennessee @ Cleveland

Picks Against Spread - Cleveland (PK)

Yahoo community Pick'em

Tennessee 57 percent
Cleveland 43 percent

My Pick - Cleveland

Cleveland weren’t impressive against the Dolphins, but this week they should have Peyton Hillis back to boost their offense.

Tennessee on the other hand are still searching for the Chris Johnson of previous two years. Johnson has yet to gain a total of 100 rushing yards this year, which is truly pathetic for a player who received such a huge contact this offseason.

As for this game, I can see the Titans offense struggling, especially with Kenny Britt being lost for the season with a torn ACL. The offensive game plan will have more emphasis on establishing the ground game, to which Cleveland should be able to counter by putting eight men in the box. Keep in mind that Cleveland has one of the best defenses against the pass, it will be tough for Hasselbeck and co. to connect often and early enough to take that safety out of the box and move him back into coverage.

For those reasons, give me the Browns.

Detroit @ Dallas

Picks Against Spread - Dallas by one

Yahoo Community Pick'em

Detroit 69 percent
Dallas 31 percent

My Pick - Dallas


Two bandwagons come to a collision on Sunday, with the new found Tony Romo fan club coming head to head with America’s new favourite team, the Detroit Lions.

It is arguably the pick of the early games, with Dallas coming off a win on Monday Night Football and the Lions completing a fourth quarter comeback with a Jason Hanson overtime field goal. Much has been made of Calvin Johnson and his great start to the season, scoring two touchdowns in each of the opening games. Meanwhile in Dallas,

Tony Romo seems to be playing better with a broken rib than he was when fully fit.

Two bandwagons. One winner.

I’m taking the Cowboys. Miles Austin looks to be on track to return this weekend and we all saw the run around Jared Allen gave left tackle Jeff Backus last week. DeMarcus Ware must be licking his lips in anticipation. Add home field advantage to that and I predict Dallas will edge a close one.

Minnesota @ Kansas City

Picks Against Spread - Minnesota by two

Yahoo Community Pick'em

Minnesota 81 percent
Kansas City 19 percent

My Pick - Kansas City


One 0 has gotta go!

That is if they don’t tie, which I wouldn’t put it past either team.

Both teams enter this match at 0-3 and have a chance to salvage their season with a victory.

Whilst Minnesota left the game against Detroit upset they gave away such a big fourth quarter, it was confusing to see the lack of touches Adrian Peterson had. Especially on a fourth down and one attempt, where they gave the ball to fullback Toby Gerhart instead of the man/animal that is AP.

The Chiefs, on the other hand, are in disarray and it’s around this time where fingers start to get pointed and blame is assigned to players and coaches. The first two in the firing line will be quarterback Matt Cassel and head coach Todd Haley.

Home field advantage at Arrowhead Stadium counts for more than most other grounds and Matt Cassel has to prove at some point in the season that he doesn’t want to compete for a starting job with Andrew Luck next season. And what better time than this Sunday?

Washington @ St. Louis

Picks Against Spread - Washington by two

Yahoo Community Pick'em

Washington 76 percent
St. Louis 24 percent

My Pick - St. Louis

If there was ever a must win game in week four of the season, this would be it for St. Louis.

The Redskins are no pushovers though, so the Rams are going to have to earn this victory.

A look at the upcoming schedule doesn’t give much optimism for Rams fans. With the likes of Green Bay, Dallas and New Orleans next on the schedule in quick succession, it’s not going to get any easier for the Rams.

With no victories to their name so far, the Rams need a win on Sunday to stop other NFC West teams building up a big lead whilst they play the toughest teams the NFL has to offer.

Though they should not be fretting just yet, the Rams will have an eye on the rough schedule ahead. Coach Steve Spagnuolo will be desperate for that first win of the season, if not to get off the mark, but to install some confidence into the players.

San Francisco @ Philadelphia

Picks Against Spread - Philadelphia by nine

Yahoo Community Pick'em

Philadelphia 87 percent
San Francisco 13 percent

My Pick - Philadelphia


First, we heard Michael Vick will be out for at least three weeks with a broken hand. Then news emerged that he has participating in practise with a bruised hand.

This was all the news I needed to pick the Eagles.

An injured Michael Vick will be more productive than a fully fit Mike Kafka. The presence of Vick makes him so hard to game plan against, whilst the less mobile Kafka can be treated like most other pocket passers

One thing to keep an eye on in this game however is the hits Vick will inevitably take and whether or not the 49ers will target the bruised right hand of Vick. Last week, we heard DeAngelo Hall mentioning that the Redskins would target Tony Romo’s injured ribs, so it will be intriguing to see whether or not San Francisco will do the same with Vick.

As for San Francisco, they must have taken part in the most boring game of football in recent memory. At no point in the game was there a big play, a ‘wow!’ moment or a big momentum shift. They were far from impressive against a weak Bengals team and they should be exploited against the Eagles, who have yet to show why they have a shot at winning the Superbowl.

I will say one thing in their favor though. LeSean McCoy already has my vote for the Pro Bowl.

New Orleans @ Jacksonville

Picks Against Spread - New Orleans by eight

Yahoo Community Pick'em

New Orleans 98 percent
Jacksonville two percent

My Pick - New Orleans


As a football player, didn’t the game last week between the Jaguars and Panthers look like it would be awesome to play in? It made a game which would have been rather boring really fun to watch. It was like playing football on a huge Slip ‘n’ Slide.

Back to predictions, baring a complete collapse of the Saints, I can’t see any other outcome than a New Orleans victory. Gregg Williams will be dialing up blitz after blitz and will get to Blaine Gabbert often. Drew Brees will do what he does best and make a mockery of the Jags game plan to stop him.

On an off topic note, every team needs a Darren Sproles player. Whether it is a running back or receiver, all you need is somebody who can come into the game as a playmaker and change the pace, hit a tired defense with some explosiveness and deliver a big play on request.

Pittsburgh @ Houston

Picks Against Spread - Houston by four

Yahoo Community Pick'em

Houston 57 percent
Pittsburgh 43 percent

My Pick - Pittsburgh

Did anyone else expect a blowout for Pittsburgh against the Colts? That game was much closer than it should have been for the Steelers, seeing as they made Curtis Painter look like a reasonable quarterback.

From a dull Sunday night game to a shootout in the Big Easy, Houston were matching the high scoring Saints blow for blow until they ran out of steam in the fourth quarter.

So, despite Pittsburgh being the team which won this game, it’s conceivable that Houston is the team coming into this game with the most confidence. Then you should consider that the Texans will be at home, all of which points towards a Houston win. Right?

Wrong, the Steelers will march into Houston and cause the usual havoc. There is no doubt in my mind that Houston will win the AFC South, but it is games like these which they still have to overcome.  I worry that the Texans don’t have the aggression to stand up to the big bullying defenses and put up a fight.

Some call it confidence. Some call it swagger. Pittsburgh has it. I’m not sold the Texans do.

Wins against the Colts and Dolphins, both of which are 0-3, gave people reason to believe in the Texans, but the real tests were waiting in week 3 and 4. They couldn’t upset the Saints and that trend will follow on Sunday.

New York @ Arizona

Picks Against Spread - New York by one

Yahoo Community Pick'em

New York 84 percent
Arizona 16 percent

My Pick - New York

Arizona should be ashamed of themselves for not beating Seattle last week. They had the chances, they just could not complete them. It was clear Beanie Wells was missed last week after he was ruled out after a game time decision.

He should be back this week but it won’t be enough to overcome the Giants.

As for the Giants, sure they beat the Eagles, they are hardly world beaters at the moment. Eli is still Eli, he is not an elite quarterback.

The Eagles lost that game more than the Giants won it, but a win is still a win no matter how it is won. Just like how the Giants will win this Sunday.

They are the better team and though they travel across the country, they should have Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham back to full fitness, giving them all the weapons they need to beat the Cardinals.

Atlanta @ Seattle

Picks Against Spread - Atlanta by five

Yahoo Community Pick'em

Atlanta 94 percent
Seattle six percent

My Pick - Atlanta

Though both teams come into this game at 1-2, there is no way their records show justice as to the quality of the teams.

Offensively, the Falcons have great players across the board, with Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez at their skill position.

Then we compare that with Seattle, who boasts Tavaris Jackson, Marshawn Lynch, Sidney Rice, the other Mike Williams and Zach Miller.

If this alone doesn’t confirm why I’ve picked the Falcons, then consider this fact: Tavaris Jackson is the starting quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks.

Hopefully, that proves my point.

Denver @ Green Bay

Picks Against Spread - Green Bay by 13

Yahoo Community Pick'em

Green Bay 99 percent
Denver one percent

My Pick - Green Bay


‘Broncos Fans to John Fox: Play Tebow’

These were the legitimate words placed on a billboard on the I-25 by a group of passionate Broncos fans who are suffering from Tebow deficiency.

This has to be the first time in NFL history where a team’s group of fans have rallied for the third string quarterback to start.

Even if Tebow was starting, it would not change my pick. The Packers are the best team in the NFL. They are at home. The Broncos are one of the worst teams in the NFL. They are away from home. Packers win and it won’t even be close.

New England @ Oakland

Picks Against Spread - New England by five

Yahoo Community Pick'em

New England 86 percent
Oakland 14 percent

My Pick - New England


So it appears if you force Tom Brady to throw four interceptions, you have a chance of beating the Patriots. Oakland, the challenge has been set.

Despite the Raiders upsetting the Jets last week, lightening does not strike twice. The Patriots are angry after losing to a divisional opponent are looking to get revenge. The Raiders may be suffering from overconfidence after an impressive win over the Jets, something which may be hard to come down from in time to face an opponent with no need for additional motivation.

Tom Brady is on course for a record breaking season and I cannot see the Raiders slowing him down or collapsing the Patriots ostensibly everlasting pocket. Mark another in the win column for the Pats.

Miami @ San Diego

Picks Against Spread - San Diego by seven

Yahoo Community Pick'em

San Diego 95 percent
Miami 5 percent

My Pick - San Diego


Another AFC East teams travels over to the west coast to face off against an AFC West team. As the previous slide showed, I picked the AFC East team in the other encounter. To even it up, I’m picking the AFC West team.

That’s not to make it a fair 1-1 either. It’s because the Chargers are a much better team than the Dolphins. The Dolphins couldn’t even beat a Browns team last week which lacked its one man offensive machine Peyton Hillis. If that is the case, how on earth are they going to travel cross-country to play the San Diego Chargers, one of the better offensive teams in the NFL?  Dolphins go 0-4 and the temperature of the Tony Sparano hot seat gets a little bit toasty.

New York @ Baltimore

Picks Against Spread - Baltimore by three

Yahoo Community Pick'em

Baltimore 80 percent
New York 20 percent

My Pick - Baltimore

As easy as it is to get excited for this game, just think back to last year’s encounter. In a mistake riddled game, it was a defensive shootout with barely any big plays or discussion points.

Expect pretty much the same on Sunday night. And you can expect the result to be the same too.

Both offenses will have a tough time breaking down the opposing defense and you wouldn’t be crazy to consider dropping the likes of Santonio Holmes and Anquan Boldin, as they face defences which give up barely any big plays, considering you had suitable backups.

The two defenses even themselves out in quality, but at quarterback, I’d rather have Joe Flacco than Mark Sanchez in the driver’s seat for these types of games.

Indianapolis @ Tampa Bay

Picks Against Spread - Tampa Bay by 11

Yahoo Community Pick'em

Tampa Bay 91 percent
Indianapolis nine percent

My Pick - Tampa Bay

When the schedule was released, you can tell that the bosses at ESPN circled this game and thought back to the Peyton Manning fourth quarter comeback over the dominant Bucs defense.

If the bosses weren’t, you can guarantee Jon Gruden was.

Times have changed. Curtis Painter is the face of the 2011 season for the Colts and the Bucs have cleaned house and rebuilt since the previous meeting between the two teams. Now, Raheem Morris has an emerging 2-1 Tampa Bay team with their eyes set on the playoffs. And it’s not all that hard to see them achieving that.

No, the game will not live up to it is prior expectations now that number 18 is not running the show in Indy, but if the Colts can play like they did against the Steelers, they have a chance to prevent people from getting an early night.

Last Week's Picks

New England over Buffalo - Incorrect

San Francisco over Cincinnati - Correct
 

Miami over Cleveland - Incorrect
 

Tennessee over Denver - Correct

Detroit over Minnesota - Correct

New Orleans over Houston - Correct

Philadelphia over New York - Incorrect

Carolina over Jacksonville - Correct

New York over Oakland - Incorrect

Baltimore over St. Louis - Correct

San Diego over Kansas City - Correct

Green Bay over Chicago - Correct

Arizona over Seattle - incorrect

Atlanta over Tampa Bay - Incorrect

Pittsburgh over Indianapolis - Correct

Washington over Dallas - Incorrect

Week 3 record - 9-7

Season record - 33-15

Fantasy Sleepers: QB-RB-WR-TE-D/ST

QB - Jason Campbell – Patriots pass defense has been horrendous this season.

QB - Eli Manning – He’s not elite but he has a nice matchup against the Cardinals.

RB – Matt Forte – Last season, he rushed for over 100 against Carolina. With the Bears looking torun more, Forte is a must start.

RB – LeSean McCoy – Michael Vick nursing an injury means more rushing attempts for McCoy. And he’s very explosive.

WR – Dwayne Bowe – We saw what Calvin Johnson could do to the Vikings and Todd Haley must have seen that too.

WR – Denarius Moore – Same reason as Jason Campbell. Moore is becoming more and more involved in the Oakland offense.

TE – Brandon Pettigrew – Jim Schwartz said he turned to Pettigrew when the running game stopped working. Dallas has a good run defence.

TE – Greg Olsen – Fairy-tale stuff, you can just see Olsen scoring a touchdown to stick it to Jerry Angelo after trading him.

D/ST – Buffalo – The Cincinnati offense is anaemic.

D/ST – Atlanta – The Seattle offense is anaemic.

Fantasy Dreamers: QB-RB-WR-TE-D/ST

QB – Mark Sanchez – Would you trust Sanchez against the Ravens defense?

QB – Cam Newton – This could go either way. He’ll either put up huge numbers or crumble to the Chicago defence.

RB – Ben Tate – The return of Arian Foster and the Pittsburgh defense make for a bad week for Ben Tate.

RB – Willis McGahee – News coming out of Denver is Knowshon Moreno is back to share carries with McGahee. He will still get goal line work but not the bulk of the carries.

WR – Torrey Smith – Which one of these was a one hit wonder?  A) The Beatles. B) The Rolling Stones. C) Michael Jackson. D)Torrey Smith. HINT: It’s not A, B or C.

WR – Nate Washington – Though he may be a number one receiver now, the Browns are still a stingy pass defense.

TE – Fred Davis – Though matchup against the Rams and Chris Cooley got more targets against the Cowboys.

TE – Dustin Keller – The Ravens don’t like tight ends. Tight ends don’t like the Ravens. Ray Lewis likes laying out Dustin Keller.

D/ST – New England – There defense isn’t all that good.

D/ST – Pittsburgh – If they play like they did against the Colts, Houston will tear them to pieces.