Panthers vs. Bears: 6 Keys to a Chicago Victory

For those hoping for a reprieve for the Bears after Chicago finished the most grueling three-game stretch any team in the league will face this season, don't get comfortable.

The Carolina Panthers aren't the pushovers they were a year ago.

The 1-2 Panthers have been giving teams hell, losing to both the Cardinals and the Packers by just a touchdown.  They have scored the same number of points the Bears have and have allowed one fewer point than Chicago.

Risen on the wings of new head coach Ron Rivera and No. 1 overall draft choice Cam Newton, the Panthers will not go gently into that good night.

Additionally, the Panthers present some unique challenges to Chicago that could put the Bears at a disadvantage in this game.

Reeling from two disappointing and embarrassing losses, the Bears are looking to replant their feet and start pushing toward a playoff bid with a win over the formerly hapless Panthers.

What do the Bears need to do to beat Carolina at Soldier Field on Sunday?  Follow me as we look at the keys to a Bears victory.

Run, Baby, Run!

Two yards rushing is not enough.  

Mike Martz will have to find a way to move the ball on the ground.  It's counter-intuitive to what he likes to do, but he must do so regardless.

Matt Forte must find a way to give the Bears more than two yards rushing on nine carries.  Being second in the league in receptions is great, but he is first and foremost a running back.  The Bears offense certainly needs that sort of versatility from Forte, as it needs to be able to keep defenses honest.  That didn't happen against the Packers.  The offensive line wasn't doing him any favors, but a performance that bad says as much about Forte as it does about the line.

The projected return of Marion Barber will be a godsend for the Bears, as a change of pace from Forte is not only a breath of fresh air, but necessary should Matt log another performance like he had last week.

Safety in Numbers....like 46 and 27

The projected return of the Bears starting safety tandem from injury is a big factor.

While Major Wright's return isn't going to likely be a deciding factor in this game, getting Chris Harris back could be.

Harris has been missed by the Bears defense badly over the past few weeks as he was recovering from a hamstring injury.  Harris is the Bears' reliable safety valve and without him on the field, the Bears defense suffered.  Never was his importance more front and center as when we watched Devery Henderson race down the field for 79 yards and a touchdown with Harris watching from the sidelines.

And watching Jermichael Finley rip the Bears defense apart as Harris sat out drove the point even further home.  With Greg Olsen coming to Chicago this week, having Harris on the field could be the difference between the Bears having a solid defensive performance or watching as another high-caliber tight end gouges the Bears for big yardage and more touchdowns.

Keeping Cutler Upright

The Bears offensive line has allowed 14 sacks this season.  To be fair, they have also faced last year's seventh-, fourth- and second-ranked defenses from last season in their first three weeks.  

But for the Bears to have success, they will have to keep Cutler upright.  

The Panthers aren't exactly the greatest pass-rushing team in the league, logging just five sacks in their first three games.  But they do feature an elite defensive end in Charles Johnson, who has posted three sacks in 2011.  

All of the Panthers' sacks have come by way of Johnson and fellow DE Greg Hardy.  Unfortunately, that means that the most crucial linemen in pass protection this week will be tackles J'Marcus Webb and Frank Omiyale.  

For all the bluster about the three sacks that Webb has given up so far—which rank fourth worst in the league for tackles and third among left tackles—Omiyale has allowed no other quarterback hits and just six quarterback pressures, good for 29th in the league and 11th among LTs.  These are decidedly average numbers.  For the record, Webb currently ranks 36th overall among the 72 tackles rated by Pro Football Focus, and 20th among 32 left tackles.

Omiyale, on the other hand, ranks 50th overall and has given up a sack, two quarterback hits and three pressures in just a game-and-a-half.  Remember that Gate 68 gave up a league-leading 12 sacks in 2010, along with five quarterback hits and 36 pressures to make him the 77th ranked (that's second to last, folks) pass protector in the league, according to Pro Football Focus.

The Bears will have to provide the tackles with help or face another long day for Cutler and company.

Turnovers Decide Games

Seems pretty obvious, doesn't it?

But the importance of this factor cannot be understated.  The Bears have won 11 consecutive games in which they have been on the plus side of the turnover battle.  

Since Lovie Smith took over the Bears in 2004, no team in the league has more takeaways (104), and statistics show that the team that wins the turnover battle wins the game 90 percent of the time.

But more than just creating turnovers, the Bears must limit their own mistakes.  Of the 119 regular season and postseason games Smith has coached, the team has only played 21 games without committing a turnover.  The team's record in those games is 17-4. 

The Bears must do what they do best defensively and create turnovers while limiting the turnovers that have plagued their offense.

Contain G-Reg

Bears general manager Jerry Angelo is not going to cop to this, but letting Greg Olsen get away was one of the Bears' biggest offseason mistakes.

Forget that the players didn't like how it was handled.  Forget that Olsen effectively called Angelo a liar when Angelo asserted that Olsen asked for a trade.  

The real issues are that G-Reg was Cutler's most reliable target and the best receiver on the team. Olsen will be coming to Chicago this week to show the Bears why they screwed up.

The Bears have already shown that a pass-catching tight end can gash them.  Jermichael Finley might be the best the league has to offer right now.  But Olsen is a beast as well, and if the Bears cannot find the answer that evaded them last week against Finley, the Panthers could be headed to a .500 record while the Bears could be looking up  from a three-game deficit in the division that could be insurmountable. 

The Rivera Factor

The Panthers' new head coach also has the distinction of being a former Bears defensive coordinator who didn't leave under the best of terms.  Rivera will come into this game trying to make a point, and he will have the Panthers ready to make that point for him.

Chicago's defense can accurately be described as Lovie Smith's defense.  But it was Ron Rivera who ran it to perfection.  It was Rivera who made it the best defense in the league.  And that defense hasn't been even close to as dominating since he wasn't re-signed after the 2006 season.

What does this have to do with this week?  Rivera knows the Bears defense and its weaknesses better than any other coach in the league.  He knows Urlacher.  He knows Briggs.  He knows Tillman and Harris.  

Additionally, his team knows Harris.  And they know Peppers.  They faced them in practice every week for years.

Does that mean that Rivera and the Panthers will have all of the answers when facing the Bears defense?  Not necessarily.  Lovie Smith will have to change the questions a bit, though.  And just knowing the defense doesn't mean easily beating it.  In the end, execution is everything.  Sometimes you know what's going to happen and are still powerless to stop it.

But it does give the Panthers an advantage that other teams don't enjoy, and in a game decided by inches, it could provide a few yards.

The Bears will have to execute.  If the line can get penetration and the secondary can limit big plays, there won't be much Rivera can do about it, whether he knows what's coming or not.  And Smith and defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli will have to give Ron some looks he hasn't seen.  The Bears' usual disguises will not be as effective against the Panthers as they typically are against other teams.  But Rivera has been gone for more than four seasons, and the Bears defense has not completely stagnated in that time.

If the Bears run their defense well, they can dominate the Panthers whether Rivera sees it coming or not.

And know it's you turn, ladies and gentlemen.  Step up to the soapbox below and let us know what you think.