Boise State Update: Previewing the Return of the Nevada Wolfpack

This week has brought about some buzz regarding Boise State being considered for the Big 12 Conference.  While it is just rumors for now, who knows what the current Conference Palooza will bring in the near future.

One thing that is not a rumor is that Boise State has announced that they are appealing the NCAA penalties placed on their football program.  This was probably to be expected, and I am sure most Bronco fans are glad that it is going to happen. 

But, what else is going on in Bronco Land?  Is anything special happening this week? 

Well, a certain team is coming to town.  You know who I am talking about.  A team that some Bronco fans choose not to speak about. 

This weekends contest is going to be an interesting one.  So, in this weeks Boise State Update I want to take a little time to look at what might happen.  Will it be a good game?  What will it take  for the Broncos to win? Let's take a look. 

Nevada Is Back in Town

So, Boise fans, Nevada is coming to town.  You remember them don't you? 

Last year's game was probably the biggest heart break in Boise State Football history, or at least recent history.  We don't need to talk about it.  We don't need to rehash it.  We really don't even need to think about it.  However, we probably should preview this year's game.  

What will it take to beat the Pack from the WAC this year?  Well, they are not the same team that went 12–1 in the 2010 regular season.  They are certainly not the same squad that went 7-1 in the WAC, even  sharing the league title with Boise State and Hawaii.  This is also not the same team that then defeated Boston College in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl 20-13 to finish out their season 13-1. 

2010 was a pretty remarkable year for the group from Reno.  It was probably the greatest season in school history.  Of course, the win over Boise State was the icing on the cake.  The win over the Broncos was probably the greatest victory in Nevada Wolfpack football history.  They are probably still celebrating over there in the Biggest Little City in the world.  But, will that celebrating stop this Saturday?

I have looked at all the numbers, sifted through all the data and I could only come up with one conclusion. 

The Wolfpack's First Three Games

I went through the data of Nevada's first three games, and I have to say I was surprised. 

Oregon 69 Nevada 20:

At first you might think this was an absolute demolition of the Wolfpack, and it was. However, did you know that Nevada had 516 yards of offense compared to 603 yards by Oregon?  Also, Nevada had 26 first downs, compared to 25 first downs for Oregon.  Nevada rushed for 283 yards against Oregon, and are currently ranked No. 7 in the nation for rushing offense at 285 yards per game. 

Time of possession also went the Wolfpack's way at 38:18 to 21:42 but, against Oregon, time of possession doesn't really mean all that much.  Six passing touchdowns, however, does.  That is how many passing TD's the Nevada defense allowed during the game.  I didn't know Swiss Cheese was a defensive formation.  

Overall, the Oregon game on paper doesn't look as bad as the 69-20 pounding that the score seems to indicate.  The second quarter was ridiculous, and I am sure the Pack would love to do that one all over again.  They would probably love to have their three turnovers back as well. Oregon didn't turn the ball over once. 

This was also the Wolfpack's first game of the year, and Oregon was coming off a thumping of their own after losing to LSU the week before.  Chalk some of it up to that, but how would Nevada do the following week?  

San Jose 14 Nevada 17:

Nevada bounced back with a win over the Spartans of San Jose.  When I first saw the score I thought that Nevada must truly be in a "rebuilding year".  However, then I crunched the stack of numbers.  Nevada dominated this game on paper, even though they needed a late interception in the end zone to seal a victory. 

Nevada had 23 first downs compared to 15 for San Jose.  They once again went crazy in the ground game, racking up 261 yards, but they also racked up turnovers, giving it up four times.  The only thing that saved them is that they forced four turnovers themselves.  Time of possession once again went Nevada's way, 35:51 to 24:09.  They were a little anemic in the passing game, with only 112 yards in the air.  

In their second game progress was made, but the Pack should have probably won this game by two touchdowns. 

Texas Tech 35 Nevada 34:

Nevada out gained Texas Tech 562 to 441.  The passing game went for 250, and once again the rushing game was outstanding, gaining 312 yards.  Nevada edged them in the time of possession 32:34 to 27:26, but that is to be expected when you run the ball like Nevada does.  Another high point was the fact that they did not turn the ball over for the first time this year.   

The Wolfpack probably should have won this game.  On the road at Texas Tech they were winning 28-14 mid way through the third quarter.  Then, being the young team that they are, they made some key mistakes and ended up falling by just one point.  

After crunching all the numbers I am convinced that Nevada is a better team than myself and others might realize.  They have an amazing running attack that can drink time off the clock and keep Kellen Moore and his offense on the sidelines.  I know that Coach Petersen will have his team prepared, but it will still take a stellar performance from all areas of the game for the Broncos to capture victory. 

The Wolfpack showed us last week that they can go into an unfriendly environment against a pass-first offense, and make it very interesting.  What will make it more interesting is if Boise State continues to lack in a particular area. 

Boise's Lack of a Running Game

Where is the high-powered Boise State offense lacking?  The running game.  If they do not get a handle on this, it could be a recipe for disaster.

Make no mistake, whoever controls the ground game this Saturday is going to have the best chance of winning.  In their first three games, Doug Martin, DJ Harper and the rest of the Bronco running backs have only averaged 135 yards per game.  That is 76th in the nation, and it won't be enough Saturday. 

I am not sure the exact problem this year, but my guess is that it has been a combination of things.  New lineman, missed assignments, poor blocking and Doug Martin looks to me like he is running more timidly this year.  Whatever the case, they will all need to do better. 

Redemption

I expect Boise State to be ready for this game.  This is not 'just another game' for the Broncos.  They might say it is but, deep down, every Bronco, every coach and every fan knows this one means a little more.

Last year was a crushing defeat for the Broncos.  I don't really see this years game as revenge, because I think the Broncos realize that they beat themselves last November in Reno.  I see this game as redemption.  A chance to make it right.  An attack on the nightmare that was the second half of last year's game. 

The Georgia game was revenge, the Nevada game will be redemption.  Boise State is going to come out in full attack mode, and I don't think they will let up this time. 

My prediction for the game: Boise State 53 Nevada 14. 

I do expect Boise State's defense to slow down the Wolfpack's run game.  The Broncos' defense has been stellar this year.  With an unsure passing game from Nevada, and a great pass defense from the Broncos, I see a good matchup for Boise State.  The Broncos should be able to focus on shutting down the run without major concerns downfield. 

What I don't know is if this is the week the Bronco running game finally takes off.  They will need more than 135 yards in total rushing offense to win.  If they do get the ground game going, it will make the day go a lot easier.  If they don't get it going, it could keep the game interesting.  I don't know what will happen, but I keep waiting for Martin and Harper to have break out games.  Maybe this will be the week. 

The Donna Larsen Park Project

I don't know if you heard the news, with everything else going on, but the track that surrounds the field in Bronco Stadium will soon be gone.  The Donna Larsen Park project has gotten the go-ahead.  This means that the track surrounding the field in Bronco Stadium will be ripped out of there soon.   A new track and field complex, high school football stadium and possibly a new softball stadium, will all be built over at the former East Junior High property. 

This project makes way for the continued expansion of Bronco Stadium.  The first phase will be adding new football offices and training facilities in the North End Zone.  Also, with the track removed, it will allow construction that will bring seats closer to the sidelines, making it a more intimate atmosphere for football. 

If you thought it was loud in there before, you haven't heard anything yet.  All of the internal stadium construction is supposed to start in 2013.  I know that many Bronco fans wish it would happen a little sooner, but at least it appears to finally be going forward.