NFL Picks: 4 Games That Are Up For Grabs That You Should Avoid

There are games every week on the NFL schedule that you look at and have a hard time deciding who is the favorite entering the game.

You have a hard time picking which team will come out the victor because the two teams are so evenly matched.

Week 3 was an example of this, as the NY Jets traveled to Oakland. Although the Jets have been a Super Bowl contender the last two seasons, having played in the AFC Championship game the last couple of years, people had a hard time deciding just who would win that game.

The Raiders have a dominant rushing attack, which is arguably the best in the league. They displayed that in Week 3 when they defeated the Jets in the Black Hole.

Week 4 is no different. Week 4 has several marquee matchups that could go either way. Obviously when it comes to the betting lines, there needs to be a favorite.

However, these are four games that I would not bet on. You're better off spending your money elsewhere.

New England at Oakland

I mentioned the Oakland game last week as an example of a game that you didn't know what to expect.

When looking at the game on paper, you would come to the conclusion that the Jets are the favorites, when looking at their track record.

However, if you know both teams personnel-wise, you'd know that with the Raiders having the best rushing attack in the league, they could easily take control of the game despite their mediocre passing attack.

Their defense was also fierce, constantly getting pressure on Mark Sanchez.

This is the reason New England at Oakland is a game that you should not bet on.

What are the Patriots best at? Passing the football. They have the best QB in the game in Tom Brady. How do you limit a team such as the Patriots?

You have to have a rushing attack.

Oakland is not going to beat New England in a shootout as the Bills did last weekend. The Bills have a good offensive lineup, with Stevie Johnson as one of the top receivers in the game, and Ryan Fitzpatrick making a case for being a top 10 QB in the league.

However, if the Raiders hold on to the ball and keep Tom Brady off of the field, while also forcing tremendous pressure on Brady, the Raiders could easily win this matchup.

Now you look at the other side of the equation. What if the Raiders can't rattle Brady? Tom Brady is the best QB in the league when he has time to throw the football. It is absolutely instrumental in putting him on the ground if the Raiders have a chance at winning this game.

When has Brady struggled the most over the past few seasons? In the postseason against fierce defenses with an amazing pass rush.

In the Patriots' loss to the Jets in last year's playoffs, which saw Brady throw his first interception in months, the Jets got to Brady five times.

The Patriots are a one-dimensional team that has become too dependent on Brady to carry the team. If the Pats can't pass the ball, the Pats can't run the ball. Bill Belichick has become so enamored with how good of a QB Tom Brady is that he fails to establish a running game anymore.

This is one of the reasons New England fails in the playoffs against stout defenses.

If the Raiders can pressure Brady and establish a running game that has been unstoppable over the first three weeks of the season, we can easily be looking at the Raiders as a 3-1 team by the end of the Week 4.

Pittsburgh at Houston

This is a tough game to predict when you factor in Houston's offense and Pittsburgh's defense.

The Steelers are seventh in total defense, once again establishing the foundation of the Steelers by winning games with their defense.

The offense has been underwhelming, ranking at 26th in total offense.

The Texans have become a well-balanced team with Wade Phillips as the defensive coordinator, ranking ninth in total defense and seventh in total offense.

This game could either way because of the following reasons...

- The Steelers are better than 26th in the league in offense. Roethlisberger is one of the top QBs in the league, and he has one of the deepest receiving corps. You'd be hard-pressed to find teams with a better three man lineup than Mike Wallace, Hines Ward and Antonio Brown.

- Rashard Mendenhall has had a terrible start to the season. He's averaging only 3.0 yards a carry. He's been a non-factor. That shouldn't be the case for too long.

- The Texans have a great offense that can move the chains, but they struggle to score the ball in the red zone. In the Texans' last 12 trips inside the red zone, they have two touchdowns and eight field goals. Facing a defense such as Pittsburgh, the Texans can easily struggle in the red zone in Week 4.

- The Steelers have been underwhelming so far this season. An offense that has struggled. A running game, which is the foundation of the Steelers offense, has underperformed big time. It is essential that the Steelers establish a running game against a tough Texans defense in order to set up the play-action fake with Roethlisberger-Wallace.

If Pittsburgh fails to do that, they could be in for a long game at Houston.

Detroit at Dallas

The Detroit Lions have been impressive. The Dallas Cowboys have squeezed by.

The Lions have raced out to their first 3-0 start since 1980 and have looked every bit impressive in doing so. The Lions are currently ranked in the top five in ESPN's Power Rankings. The Lions have an amazing balance, ranking fourth in offense and third in defense through three weeks of the season.

With Matthew Stafford justifying his status as a top overall pick, and Calvin Johnson further re-inforcing why some people think he's the best receiver in the league, some observers would come to the conclusion that this is an easy victory over an underwhelming Cowboys team.

Far from it.

Although the Lions have looked impressive in a 20 point comeback vs. the Vikings, and in victories over the Chiefs and the Bucs, the Cowboys are one of the most resilient teams in the NFL.

Do they have pretty victories? No.

Do they have a fighter's spirit? No doubt about it.

The Cowboys have had comeback wins in the past weeks with an injured Tony Romo. After "choking" away a victory vs. the Jets in Week 1, Romo has responded to the criticism by being the clutch-est quarterback in the NFL over the past two games.

The Cowboys are struggling in the running game, so that might pose a problem against the Lions' defense.

However, if Dallas can limit Stafford-Johnson, the Cowboys should have the inside track to win this game.

The Lions have tried running the football in 2011, but to little success. They rank seventh in rushing attempts, but 26th in rushing yards for a 2.8 average. Jahvid Best has been a huge disappointment this season.

If the Cowboys shut down the dynamic passing attack of the Lions as the Vikings did for one half last week, the Lions are a beatable team. We could be looking at the Cowboys as the NFC East leaders through four weeks of the season.

NY Jets at Baltimore

Out of all of the games in Week 4, this is the toughest to predict.

There is a reason this game is being played in front of a national television audience on Sunday Night Football.

The Ravens have been in the playoffs the last three seasons, making it to the AFC Championship game once. The Jets have been in the playoffs the last two seasons, making it to the Championship game each season.

Something's gotta give.

These are two teams with extreme Rex Ryan influences. Both teams play the 3-4 defense, a favorite formation of Ryan's. Ryan was the defensive coordinator for the Ravens from 2005 to 2008 before accepting the head coaching position for the Jets in 2009.

The Ravens have the best defense in the NFL, allowing only 40 points through three games. Both teams rank in the top 10 in total offense.

The Ravens can easily run away with a victory in this game if the offense does not screw up. The Jets are 25th in the league in rushing. This can be their downfall if they don't pick things up.

However, the Jets are still a tough team, with Sanchez picking up a bit of the slack left behind by Shonn Greene and Ladainian Tomlinson.

In order for the Jets to win, they need to go back to playing the tough defense that made them contenders over the last couple of seasons. Force Flacco into a couple of mistakes, and the Jets have a tremendous chance at winning.

However, if the Jets defense falters against the Ravens, the Jets should be 2-2 by the end of Week 4.