College Football Picks Week 5: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Florida Gators

The No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide and No. 12 Florida Gators will face off Saturday night inside The Swamp in Gainesville, FL.

Kickoff from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is scheduled for 8:00 ET and will be nationally televised on CBS.

Oddsmakers sent out the Crimson Tide as five-point road favorites, only to be bet down a point and a half.  The opening total has fallen a point to rest at its current spot of 44.5.

Sharp money has obviously bought into what Florida first-year head coach Will Muschamp and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis have achieved in four games, but will it be enough against Saint Nick.

Let's take a closer look at this monumental SEC showdown from a betting perspective.

Florida Gators as SEC Underdogs

Sharp bettors have been known to take a bit out of a betting line that has sent the Florida Gators out as a conference underdog, considering the team is 11-1-1 against the spread in the situation.

That has certainly played into the reverse line movement in this contest, as the public is certainly backing the higher-ranked Crimson Tide.

It's important to point out that all 14 of those previous games as an underdog in SEC play occurred before Muschamp arrived on campus.

Don't ever place too much weight in a betting trend, especially in college football, when a new coaching staff comes in.

With that being said, The Swamp will be even louder rooting on their beloved underdogs.

Alabama vs. Ranked Competition

The Alabama Crimson Tide have already impressive covered the number in Las Vegas against two ranked opponents this year, handing the Penn State Nittany Lions (27-11) and Arkansas Razorbacks (38-14) losses as 10- and 11-point favorites respectively.

Nick Saban has led the program to a 16-5 record against AP Top 25 competition.

Maybe the betting odds should be moving the other way?

We'll find out soon enough.

Both Teams Even Statistically

Perhaps sharp bettors are backing the underdog in this contest due to both teams compiling similar numbers on both sides of the football.

Offensively, Florida is averaging just 5.8 yards per game more than the Crimson Tide, while both will enter with a defense ranked within the Top Five nationally.

Both schedules have had some cream puffs mixed in, but the edge goes to Alabama due to playing Penn State and Arkansas.

It's a slight edge, but something to use when handicapping the contest.

Alabama's First-Half Defense

When looking at playing a road favorite in any contest, it's important to handicap if the team is likely to withstand the emotion of the home team's crowd in the opening minutes.

Nobody does this better than Alabama, allowing a touchdown or less in the first 30 minutes in nine straight games.

It's such an important factor, as you never want to fall behind too far as a bettor when laying points away from home.

Florida Running Backs

The Florida Gators have out-gained their first four opponents by an astounding 809 combined rushing yards over that span.

Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps are a big part of that success, entering Saturday with 731 rushing yards and averaging 7.5 yards a carry as a tandem in the backfield.

Charlie Weis has brought in a new offensive scheme with Urban Meyer's departure, but Alabama is used to the speed that the Gators possess.

Florida was limited to 79 rushing yards on 31 carries a year ago, but Rainey didn't participate in the game due to serving a suspension.

Alabama Running Backs

Not to be outdone by the opponent's backfield, Alabama's talented duo of Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy have scored 12 touchdowns and averaged 7.5 yards per carry.

Richardson is a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate and came away with his third straight 100-yard rushing performance in rumbling for 124 yards against Arkansas last week.

Statistically, he ranks just 19th in college football in running for 110.2 yards a game, but his impact will be noticeable inside The Swamp on Saturday.

Florida's Youthful Roster

Florida is experienced at key positions, but it's important to state that the roster has just nine scholarship seniors, which is the team's fewest since 1981.

Muschamp has taken over a talented program, but has also played 13 true freshmen through four games this year.

The Gators' inexperience will be challenged like never before, facing an opponent that returned 19 starters and 51 lettermen from a year ago.

It's going to be tough to overcome.

John Brantley vs. Bama Defense

Florida Gators quarterback John Brantley completed just 16-of-31 passes for 202 yards and two interceptions in last year's 31-6 loss to Alabama as 7.5-point road underdogs.

The senior quarterback has one more opportunity to gain respect in The Swamp in this series, as Tim Tebow was able to beat Saturday's opponent twice.

He will be facing a dominating defensive unit that's allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete just 43.9 percent of their passes.

Even more impressive, quarterbacks are averaging just 3.52 yards an attempt, which is astounding.

Crimson Tide as Road Favorites of This Kind

The Alabama Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS as road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points, which is significant due to the Penn State contest falling just outside those parameters, laying 11 points at kickoff.

Oddsmakers aren't stupid, which has many wondering if they are trapping Bama 'backers with such a welcoming number.

Three of those spread losses occurred during the 2010-11 campaign, including straight-up losses to LSU and South Carolina.

Be careful—be careful indeed.

Nick Saban vs. Will Muschamp

The battle on the sidelines is going to be analyzed closely by the CBS broadcast, as Nick Saban has been here before, while Will Muschamp is just in his first year.

Granted, Muschamp has been involved in some huge games in previous stints around the country, but has never had to oversee the entire operation.

Oddsmakers should definitely place a line on which coach goes nuclear first, as both are known to lose it at times.

Prediction

I have great respect for sharp money, The Swamp and Florida's numbers as an SEC underdog—but I also feel that Alabama is the best team in the country.

It should make for great theater, and a game that no college football fan should miss.

Prediction:  Alabama 24, Florida 16