NFL Picks: 5 Underdogs Who Will Screw Up Everything by Winning Outright

Forget covering the spread—these five Week 4 underdogs have big, bold “W”s in their sights.

The NFL odds-makers are vulnerable, folks, seduced by three weeks of evidence and willing to forget that the year is still young.

From their uneasy perch they’ve created a class of undervalued teams ready to prove their worth.

Note: All lines are based on SBGGLOBAL odds and are subject to change over the course of the week.

Arizona Cardinals over New York Giants

Vegas says: Giants by 1.5

I didn’t see enough last Sunday to sell me on this New York Giants offense.

Don’t let the 29-16 final fool you. The Giants managed just 14 first downs versus Philadelphia’s 25 and were out-gained by the Eagles 376 to 334.

The Giants overcame the yards deficit by scoring via the big play—four of them, in fact. New York hit pay dirt on plays of 40, 74, 28 and 18 yards, a trend that doesn’t augur well for an offense predicated on sustained drives and clock control.

In the two years since Plaxico Burress left, the Giants have averaged 12.6 and 11.8 yards per catch. So far this year they’re averaging a robust 14.1 yards per catch, good for fourth in the NFL. Unless you think Victor Cruz is the next Burress, that number suggests this offense will regress soon.

New York needs to begin putting together some sustained offense before this bad trend catches up with it.

On the other side of the ball, Kevin Kolb (812 yards, five touchdowns) and Larry Fitzgerald (259 yards, two touchdowns) are well positioned to pick apart an unstable Giants secondary.

Cincinnati Bengals over Buffalo Bills

Vegas says: Bills by 4

I think the Bills have enough juice to make the playoffs this year, but my trick knee says they're in for a letdown this week in Cincinnati.

The Bills have the second-best turnover differential in the AFC at +5 and two close wins in the last two weeks resulted, in part, from costly mistakes by the opposition. Buffalo can’t count on charity and I’m still waiting for that everything-goes-wrong week to help balance out all that’s gone right for Buffalo so far.

The Bengals, meanwhile, look a lot better than expected. Cincinnati ranks third in yards allowed per game in all of football, and that stingy D helps account for an offense still finding its way. The Bengals have out-gained their opponents in each of the first three weeks.

Granted it hasn’t been against the strongest of competition, but it suggests the Ginger Stripes (my nickname for them so long as Andy Dalton plays quarterbacks) will remain competitive throughout the year.

I suspect the Bills offense finally meets its kryptonite this week in Cincy, and a few bad breaks open the door for a surprise Bengals win.

Tennessee Titans over Cleveland Browns

Vegas says: Browns by 1

That the Browns are even favored in this game tells me that the odds-makers think highly of injured Titans wide-out Kenny Britt.

Still, this doesn't feel like an upset pick.

Both teams are 2-1, but Tennessee has the only quality win between the two (a dismantling of the Baltimore Ravens). Tennessee holds a 63-yard advantage in yards per game and a 55-yard advantage in yards allowed per game.

In fact, no defense has been better than Tennessee's this year, a unit the ranks second in scoring defense and allows a league-low 261 yards per game.

Those numbers ought to make a difference against a Cleveland team lacking offensive mojo.

Pittsburgh Steelers over Houston Texans

Vegas says: Texans by 4

Last week was a potential franchise moment for the Houston Texans. On the road against New Orleans, Houston played well, built an early lead, capitalized on a couple of turnovers (resulting in 10 points) and benefited at a key moment from one of the luckiest touchdown passes ever seen.

It still didn’t win.

For a team desperate to shake mediocrity, the lost opportunity must sting. This weekend, lost opportunity will turn to a deeper shade of regret as the Texans face the battle-tested Pittsburgh Steelers.

And even though the results don’t bear it out, the Steelers remain as dangerous as ever. They’re still second best in the AFC in yards allowed and near the top of the league in passing yards per game.

Pittsburgh can still move the ball on offense and stop it on defense, only a miserable and entirely unsustainable -9 turnover differential dulls its shine.

The good-bounce Texans meet the bad-bounce Steelers in a game that screams for a reversal of fortunes.

Indianapolis Colts over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

How’s this limb?  Shaky enough for you?

After playing it relatively safe through the first four picks I’m grabbing the jugular on this fifth and final slide.

Why? Because I don’t trust Tampa Bay.

The Buccaneers are back to their tightrope ways, winning consecutive contests by a combined seven points, and are overdue for a hard fall.

Tampa Bay’s offense ranks below the NFC average in total yards, passing yards, rushing yards and yards allowed per game. The numbers tell me it's bad, while the record tells me it's good. That’s a gambler’s recipe for an upset if I’ve ever seen one (if gamblers used culinary terminology, which I’m pretty sure they don’t).

I think Indianapolis is figuring out how to manage without Peyton Manning, and the slow acceptance of that underdog mantle will pay dividends in Tampa on Sunday.

Indy will control the clock on offense and frustrate Josh Freeman and the Baby Bucs (or are they the Tampa Toddlers now?) on defense for a shocking win.