College Football Predictions: Breaking Down Week 5 Vegas Betting Lines

Week 5 of the college football season is going to go a long way in determining who wins the BCS Championship Game in New Orleans on Jan. 9, 2012.

The Associate Press Top 25 also made a major move at the conclusion of last week's action, placing the LSU Tigers in the No. 1 spot for the first time this year, dropping the Oklahoma Sooners down a notch.

Let's take a closer look at the upcoming week from a betting perspective.

No. 16 South Florida at Pittsburgh

The South Florida Bulls head out on the road for the first time since coming away with a 23-20 win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as 10.5-point underdogs.

In that particular contest, the Bulls were out-gained by 254 yards, but things have turned around quickly in the statistical department since then.

Pittsburgh also played Notre Dame, dropping a 15-12 contest as seven-point home underdogs last Saturday, which automatically brings in public perception.

South Florida beats Notre Dame—Notre Dame defeats Pittsburgh, South Florida cruises.

Not so fast.

Handicapper Line:  Pittsburgh Panthers (-2.5)

Las Vegas Line:  Pittsburgh Panthers (PK)

Northwestern at No. 24 Illinois

I've based my line solely on Northwestern Wildcats quarterback Dan Persa coming back from an injured Achilles, as he's currently listed as probable.

Illinois has won its last two games by three points apiece, but now face one of the best underdogs in all of college football.

Upset alert, at the highest level if No. 7 in a road jersey is on the field.

Handicapper Line:  Illinois Fighting Illini (-3.5)

Las Vegas Line:  Illinois Fighting Illini (-7.5)

No. 3 Alabama at No. 12 Florida

If you want to see some trench warfare on Saturday, tune into CBS at 8:00 p.m. ET this week.

The Florida Gators have made it a priority to stop the run under first-year head coach Will Muschamp, while Alabama's Nick Saban would love nothing more than to dominate the line of scrimmage with running back Trent Richardson in tow.

Vegas has respect for The Swamp on a Saturday night.

Handicapper Line:  Alabama Crimson Tide (-6)

Las Vegas Line:  Alabama Crimson Tide (-5)

No. 13 Clemson at No. 11 Virginia Tech

In recent years, if you want to be taken seriously in the ACC, you need to beat Virginia Tech—not Florida State.

Clemson captured a home win over Florida State in Week 4, while also pulling off a victory over the Auburn Tigers the week before.

The oddsmakers know this, and Virginia Tech head coach Frank Beamer does as well.

Handicapper Line:  Virginia Tech Hokies (-8.5)

Las Vegas Line:  Virginia Tech Hokies (-7.5)

Auburn at No. 10 South Carolina

Consider this—Auburn has been favored in at least the last six meetings in this series.

South Carolina has been sent out as a double-digit favorite.

You know what to do.

Handicapper Line:  South Carolina Gamecocks (-5.5)

Las Vegas Line:  South Carolina Gamecocks (-11.5)

No. 14 Texas A&M vs. No. 18 Arkansas

Both teams are coming off losses to ranked teams, which makes the motivational factor equal coming into this particular contest.

The oddsmakers have placed too high a premium on Texas A&M playing inside the state in this matchup, as the game will be played inside Cowboys Stadium.

Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones played college ball at Arkansas, which levels the playing field.

Handicapper Line:  Arkansas Razorbacks (-1.5)

Las Vegas Line:  Texas A&M Aggies (-3.5)

Michigan State at Ohio State

The Ohio State Buckeyes are not out of the Big Ten Championship race just because of a loss to the Miami Hurricanes, which happens to be out of the ACC.

Michigan State dropped a 31-13 contest to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as six-point underdogs in its only road game of the year.

Oddsmakers are giving the traveler too much respect.

Handicapper Line:  Ohio State Buckeyes (-6)

Las Vegas Line:  Ohio State Buckeyes (-2.5)

No. 8 Nebraska at No. 7 Wisconsin

The Nebraska Cornhuskers and Wisconsin Badgers will both enter this contest with perfect 4-0 records, but the home team has been much more impressive in terms of results.

Las Vegas established Wisconsin as 2.5-point home favorites before the season kicked off, but has now placed a premium on the home team in this battle of top 10 teams.

Question is—Is the tariff to high now?

Handicapper Line:  Wisconsin Badgers (-9)

Las Vegas Line:  Wisconsin Badgers (-8)