College Football Picks Week 4: Does Arkansas Have Any Shot at Upsetting Alabama?

To be perfectly forthcoming, I don't think No. 14 Arkansas really has a shot at upsetting No. 3 Alabama on Saturday.

Then again, I didn't think the Razorbacks had a shot at beating the Crimson Tide when they hooked up last season and it ended up being a very tight, hard-fought game that the Hogs could have won had Ryan Mallett not thrown a back-breaking interception late in the fourth quarter.

Because of that, I know now not to take anything for granted between these two teams, even if Alabama is favored by 11 points.

So let's discuss things, shall we?

Yes, let's.

The key storyline in this matchup is not hard to decipher. Just like last year, the Hogs are one of the best offensive teams in the country and they will be matched up against arguably the best defensive team in the country in Alabama.

In games such as these, the generally accepted notion is that you have to give the edge to the defense. I agree, and I'm not about to change my mind for this game in particular.

It's only been three games, but it's already apparent that Alabama's defense is nearly flawless. It's pretty much impossible to run against the Tide, as they are holding opponents to an average rush of two yards. It's also pretty much impossible to pass against them, as they are holding opposing quarterbacks to a 38.5 completion percentage.

How can the Hogs possibly get around this?

It's a good question, and the honest answer is that they probably can't. I'm not sure Ronnie Wingo, Jr. is going to be able to do much and, because of that, all the pressure will be on Tyler Wilson to move the Hogs offense by the power of his arm alone.

It can be done, but only to a degree. Another 40- or 50-point outburst is asking too much.

If the Hogs are to win this game, it's because Alabama's own offense will sputter. This could very well happen, as the Tide rely way too much on Trent Richardson to keep pounding away. He typically does very well in this regard, but even then the Tide's offense is not perfect. That they've had some recent struggles in the red zone is a tell-tale sign of just how imperfect it is.

The only thing is that we don't yet know how strong Arkansas' own defense is. If Alabama does sputter, you get the sense it will be because of their own ineptitude more than Arkansas' stinginess on defense.

So despite the fact that I'm willing to give Arkansas a chance in this game, I just think too many things have to go right in order for the Hogs to actually win.

Prediction: Alabama 24, Arkansas 17