Conference Realignment: Odds on the Teams Most Likely to Be on the Move

With the news that the Pac-12 has deemed it unnecessary to further expand to 16 teams, it appears that the college football Armageddon that many were forecasting will have to wait at least another year.

The Big 12 conference has now gone to the brink of extinction twice and managed to survive, although there have been a few casualties along the way, including commissioner Dan Beebe.

The Big East is now the only major conference in serious trouble, but with the possibility of superconferences still looming, no one is quite sure what the future holds.

What we do know is that Pittsburgh and Syracuse are headed to the ACC and Texas A&M is eventually going to the SEC. After that, it’s all guesswork.

Will the SEC add a 14th team?

Will the Big East collapse?

How many schools will the Big 12 reel in?

There are certainly still questions to be answered and more decisions to be made, so let’s have a look at which teams could be on the move in the near future.

Missouri Tigers

Odds: 3/2

Even though the SEC has denied sending a formal invitation, it sounds like the conference is very interested in adding Missouri as its fourteenth school.

The decision would have been much easier if Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas and Texas Tech had all bolted to the Pac-12 and the Big 12 crumbled, but now the Tigers will have to weigh their options.

Yes, the Big 12 has a big, fat television contract that will help Missouri produce some revenue, but the SEC is college football’s premier conference.

Gary Pinkel has this program on the rise and it’s likely that the Tigers will be able to compete for an SEC title within a few years.

BYU Cougars

Odds: 6/1

BYU hasn’t been enjoying the independent life as much as the Cougars probably thought they would.

After getting annihilated by in-state rival Utah last Saturday, Bronco Mendenhall’s bunch is now just 1-2 on the season.

The Cougars are about to find out that it’s going to take a long, bumpy journey to become the Notre Dame of the west.

As an independent, BYU will probably have to go undefeated just to be considered for a BCS bowl game, so it makes sense for the Cougars to at least consider joining a Non-AQ conference.

The Big 12 would seem to be the best fit for BYU.

Air Force Falcons

Odds: 6/1

Right now, it sounds like Air Force could be a viable option for either the Big 12 or the Big East, which are both in need of some quick help.

The Big 12 would be an ideal fit for Air Force, even though they won’t be able to compete with the conference’s power programs for a conference championship.

It would certainly be interesting to see how a service academy would perform in a BCS conference.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Odds: 8/1

The rumor is that Rutgers could be the latest school to hop on the express train from the Big East to the ACC.

The Scarlet Knights have been linked with Connecticut as possible ACC targets, but don’t count out the Big Ten.

Rutgers holds the key to the New York City market and the Big Ten would certainly love to get its hands on that.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Odds: 10/1

Is it finally time to give up on independence?

Notre Dame has been a proud football independent school for decades, but in these tumultuous times of expansion, it seems like the logical move is to find a home for the future.

The ACC or the Big Ten are the two most likely landing spots for the Irish, with the Big Ten being the best fit geographically.

It’s going to be hard to convince Notre Dame to walk away from a huge revenue-generating TV deal with NBC, but the school has to realize that long-term stability is the most important factor right now.