Predicting How The Initial 2011 BCS Rankings Will Look

The initial BCS rankings will be released on October 16.

Who will be in them?

This list is an educated guess at what the rankings will look like when they are released.

The formula for computing the rankings includes a team's Coaches' poll ranking, six computer rankings and the Harris Poll ranking for each unit.

The Harris has not been released, as yet, and only four of the six computer rankings are available.

Considering that one of them has USC at No. 1, followed by Michigan and Florida International, it's hard to take them seriously at this point.

Nevertheless, you will find an average of each team's computer ranking along with their record and place in the Coaches' poll on each slide.

Here are links to the Billingsley, Colley, Sagarin and Massey computer rankings, each of which is a component of the BCS.

Like it or not, this is what we have to work with to come up with a champ, so we might as well try and be as educated about it as we can get.

My brain hurts already...

25. Arizona State Sun Devils

Record: 2-1

Coaches': N/R

Computer Score: 34

Any team led by Vontaze Burfict on defense should be taken very seriously.

The Devils have an opportunity to gain another quality win against USC this week, and while they won't enjoy a trip to Autzen to take on the Ducks, if they keep it respectable there is no reason they shouldn't remain in the rankings.

Their schedule, other than a preliminary warm-up against UC Davis, has been admirably difficult to this point, and a loss to a good Illinois team will not hurt their ranking too much.

24. Florida Gators

Record: 3-0

Coaches': 15

Computer Score: 14

Florida has looked good, thus far.

Chris Rainey is as explosive as they come, and John Brantley has at least half a grasp on the offense.

The Gators' schedule will be their downfall.

The SEC is just too tough.

This week they take on a weak Kentucky team then take a week off to prepare for Alabama and LSU on consecutive weeks.

23. Michigan Wolverines

Record: 3-0

Coaches': 21

Computer Score: 22.25

It might be an ugly 3-0, but it's still 3-0, and the Wolverines are not going to lose more than one more game before October 16th.

Brady Hoke has got to find a way to break these guys into the pro-style offense more slowly if they are going to continue to see success against better Big Ten teams.

Michigan State will once again knock off the Wolverines, and Northwestern will give them a run for their money but at a solid 6-1 they will be in the bottom five of the BCS rankings.

22. Texas Longhorns

Record: 3-0

Coaches': 18

Computer Score: 21.5

The Longhorns appear to have found the answer in Case McCoy.

With the talent the school has pulled in through recruiting, it was only a matter of time before things got better.

I have predicted Texas to struggle with Iowa State, but think they can beat them, and surprise Okie Lite.

We shall see.

21. Baylor Bears

Record: 2-0

Coaches': 19

Computer Score: 22.75

Robert Griffin III is a monster.

He is putting up ridiculous numbers thus far this season.

Baylor should be able to stay in good shape in the rankings with only one loss to Texas A&M before said rankings are released.

As long as they keep playing like they have int he first two games, this team could make some noise in the Big 12 this season.

20. Michigan State Spartans

Record: 2-1

Coaches': 23

Computer Score: 52.25

Pay no attention to the current computer score, the Spartans will have that adjusted in no time.

This team has some weaknesses on the O-line and defense that were on display against Notre Dame, but there is a ton of upside here.

They will straighten out those line issues over the next few weeks, and have a crack at Ohio State coming up to help gain some confidence.

One loss to Notre Dame does not mean the season is over for the Spartans.

19. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Record: 3-0

Coaches': 24

Computer Score: 31

So what if the level of competition has been atrocious?

Other than about five teams, whose hasn't?

The Yellow Jackets have looked really good, leading the nation with video game-like rushing yards in every contest.

Will they fold when the competition gets a little fiercer?

We shall see.

18. TCU Horned Frogs

Record: 2-1

Coaches': 20

Computer Score: 18

Since losing a thriller to Baylor to open the season, the Frogs have demolished the rest of their opponents.

Air Force was humiliated, and Portland state blown away by the Frogs.

Between now and the release of the rankings the Frogs don't have the strongest schedule to help their ranking, but it's pretty solid now as it is.

17. West Virginia Mountaineers

Record: 3-0

Coaches': 16

Computer Score: 15.75

By virtue of playing in the weakest BCS conference ever, the Mountaineers are going to see their computer ranking drop.

That, coupled with a loss to LSU this weekend, will earn them this spot in the lower half of the rankings.

However, as long as they don't slip up again this season, the final game of  Big East conference play between WVU and USF will decide the champion and BCS representative.

16. Nebraska Cornhuskers

Record: 3-0

Coaches': 9

Computer Score: 13.5

Nebraska's "Blackshirt" defense has looked more like the "blackskirts" for the last few weeks.

They haven't looked that great.

The return of cornerback Alfonzo Dennard will help slow some of the bleeding, but if the Huskers hope to contend for the Big Ten title, they need to return to form.

Bo Pelini's squad will lose to Wisconsin, but that will be their only blemish heading into October 16.

15. Texas A&M Aggies

Record: 2-0

Coaches': 8

Computer Score: 17.5

The Aggies will take out Oklahoma State this weekend, but fall to Arkansas in their next contest.

They will still be in the running for the Big 12 title, and have staked their claim to second place behind Oklahoma in the conference.

Mike Sherman has put together a solid group that punishes teams with its run game, then goes over the top with Ryan Tannehill to Jeff Fuller in the passing game.

The team that has nearly taken down the Big 12 will take the first step toward winning the conference this Saturday.

14. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Record: 3-0

Coaches': 6

Computer Score: 5.75

The Cowboys are getting tons of love from the computers.

This will help boost their ranking.

That said, they have a tough slate ahead of them.

I believe they lost to Texas A&M, and may drop another one to either Mizzou or Texas.

The offense continues to be productive, but Brandon Weeden can't seem to limit his interceptions.

13. Illinois Fighting Illini

Record: 3-0

Coaches': N/R

Computer Score: 24.75

Ron Zook just continues to hang on by the skin of his teeth.

His teams will be awful for a few years, then he will do just enough to keep his job before his squad dives back to mediocrity yet again.

This season, the Illini are beginning to look as if they might be a contender in the Big Ten.

If they can get past Ohio State in Champaign October 15, the Zooker will have Illini fans thinking "Rose Bowl" again.

12. USF Bulls

Record: 3-0

Coaches': 17

Computer Score: 21.5

I know, right?

A Big East team in the top 15, what is wrong with me?

The Bulls look good, however, and with a few losses by teams ahead of them, will sneak up on the top ten.

B. J. Daniels is having a great season, and in combination with Darrell Scott, forms a potent offensive attack.

They will easily win their next three, and find themselves sitting pretty in the BCS rankings.

11. Arkansas Razorbacks

Record: 3-0

Coaches': 12

Computer Score: 19.5

The Hogs will make it interesting this week in Tuscaloosa, but will ultimately fall short.

Even so, they will be in good shape to be near the top ten when October 16 rolls around.

Their SOS will be solid, and one loss to a top three team will not cause too much damage, especially if they can redeem themselves against Texas A&M...

 

 

10. Virginia Tech Hokies

Record: 3-0

Coaches': 11

Computer Score: 15.25

Frank Beamer's squad is quietly moving along under the radar.

Next week's battle with Clemson is shaping up to be a big one.

The Tigers are looking very, very sharp, and if they pull off the upset against FSU this week, they will be loaded with confidence.

However, Va. Tech. has the potential to go unbeaten this season until the ACC championship game.

It's just a matter of playing effective "Beamerball".

9. South Carolina Gamecocks

Record: 3-0

Coaches': 10

Computer Score: 12.25

Say what you will about SC and Steve Spurrier this season, they are winning.

In this game, that's all that matters.

After putting an end to Vanderbilt's unlikely undefeated run this coming week, they get to host Auburn and Kentucky before traveling to Mississippi State.

None of those are particularly easy games, but judging from Stephen Garcia's poor performances thus far, it's about time for the pendulum to swing the other way.

He will have a few big games scattered amongst the atrocious play.

8. Florida State Seminoles

Record: 2-1

Coaches': 14

Computer Score: 29.75

As you can see, the 'noles are being brutalized by the computers.

I guess that's what you get for losing to the number one team in the country.

Anyway, they should be able to get that problem corrected between now and October.

After a tussle in Clemson, which has been a house of horrors for FSU, they face Wake Forest and Duke before the rankings are released.

Jimbo Fisher will have them ready for Clemson, and they will emerge 3-0 in those contests.

7. Oregon Ducks

Record: 2-1

Coaches': 13

Computer Score: 17.75 

Let's not sleep on the Ducks.

Sure that loss to LSU was a bad way to start the season, but given the injury to Shayne Skov and Arizona State's inconsistencies, the Ducks should be the favorite to win the conference and go to the Rose Bowl.

The offense is still as potent as ever against any team not from the SEC or Big Ten, and Chip Kelly is still the head coach.

Their schedule is super manageable between now and then, with Arizona State posing what should be the only significant challenge.

6. Boise State Broncos

Record: 2-0

Coaches': 4

Computer Score: 10.25

Before you cry foul, consider BSU's accomplishments to date.

They beat Georgia, so what?

In recent seasons, who hasn't?

This computer score is likely to drop steadily throughout the season, starting the next few weeks heading into the rankings release, due to strength of schedule.

While I don't feel it's fair they are stuck behind Wisconsin, it's very likely given that the Badgers' competition after this week only gets steadily tougher, while BSU's is progressively weaker.

 On a side note, watch Doug Martin play for a little while, he is a monster.

5. Wisconsin Badgers

Record: 3-0

Coaches': 7

Computer Score: 11.75

This is a scary unit.

The Badgers offensive attack is at least as potent as it was last season, when they scored 70-plus three times.

The defense has looked solid, but they have yet to play a ranked foe, or even a decent foe.

A win over Nebraska October 1 would boost their stock, particularly in the computer rankings.

4. Stanford Cardinal

Record: 3-0

Coaches': 5

Computer Score: 9.75

Andrew Luck has done his thing so far, and the Cardinal are looking good headed into October.

With linebacker Shayne Skov likely out for the season, it's tough to see them going undefeated, but the schedule is very manageable from here to November.

Skov was the leader of that defensive unit, and his production will be sorely missed.

For now, however, the Cardinal are sitting pretty, and should be a perfect 6-0 when the rankings are released.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide

Record: 3-0

Coaches': 2

Computer Score: 8

You can see there is dramatic drop-off here in the computer rankings.

Marquis Maze and the rest of the Tide offense are going to be the key to changing that.

'Bama faces two ranked teams in a row, starting this week, then faces Ole Miss and Vanderbilt.

The defense is one of the best in the country, but this team will only go as far as the offense can take them.

Wins over Arkansas and Florida would be a big boost to that computer score.

2. Oklahoma Sooners

Record: 2-0

Coaches': 1

Computer Score: 3.75

The Sooners are getting all kinds of love, and they proved why they deserve it with that win over FSU last week.

However, LSU has a better resume, and will when the initial BCS comes out.

The Sooners should be happy with that, however, as long as they keep winning, they will be in the title game.

By the way, couldn't pass up an opportunity to give a shout to Kenny Stills for sporting that hair last week.

If it helps him play at that level every week, maybe he should keep it.

1. LSU Tigers

Record: 3-0

Coaches': 3

Computer Score: 3.75

By the time the rankings are released, the Tigers will have four victories over top 25 teams, three of them away from home.

They are tied with Oklahoma for the best computer score, but should be able to leapfrog them in the rankings after two more wins against ranked opponents.

However, LSU fans must be holding their collective breath at this point.

Les Miles has yet to screw up clock management this season, so he is due for an epic fail.