AL Cy Young Race Should Be Closer Than It Is

At this point, it's pretty much a given that Justin Verlander will be the American League Cy Young Award winner. His 24 wins and 2.29 ERA make voters blush. Even when it appears voters are valuing wins slightly less than they used to, they still covet ERA and will side with wins when all else is close to equal. Even saberists would unanimously put Verlander at the top spot.

However, another pitcher has had a tremendous season, even if his north-of-three ERA doesn't show it. In fact, you could even argue he's been just as good.

If you look at Fangraphs' wins above replacement and fielding independent pitching, you'll find another name at the top of the leaderboardL CC Sabathia. Currently, both Sabathia and Verlander are a cut above the rest as the only AL pitchers with a WAR over 7.0, with just .1 wins separating the two. Even though Sabathia has pitched 14 less innings than Verlander, he's made up for it with a 2.78 FIP and 2.98 xFIP, beating out Verlander's 2.91 and 3.09.

A number of reasons can be attributed to the stark ERA difference between the two pitchers. Batting average of balls in play is the first the jumps out. Where Verlander's .235 BABIP is second lowest in the league and just over 50 points lower than his career BABIP, Sabathia lies on the other end of the spectrum. Sabathia's .320 BABIP (almost 30 points higher than his career norm) is the second highest in the league.

Playing for the Yankees in itself will cause pitching stats to become more bloated. Yankees Stadium has been a very good hitters park the past few years, especially in regards to homers. Over the past two years, the stadium has increased homers at a 37 percent higher clip than a neutral park. On the other hand, Comerica Park has reduced homers by about six percent compared to a neutral park. And for you Angels' fans out there, your home park has been one of the most pitcher-friendly parks, reducing homers by about 20 percent.

Pitching for the Yankees also comes with the inevitable task of facing the other AL East opponents. Certainly, starting five games against Boston's offense will hurt more than facing the White Sox six times.

I'm not saying I'd put Sabathia over Verlander in my final ballot, but Sabathia should finish second and needs some recognition for a terrific season despite factors other contenders have not dealt with.