UFC 137 and Beyond: Ranking Georges St. Pierre's Most Dangerous Contenders

At UFC 137, BJ Penn and Nick Diaz faced off in a battle of elite welterweights.  In one of the most exciting fights in recent memory, Diaz came back from losing the first round by giving Penn the beating of his life en route to a decision victory.

Diaz will be getting the next title shot, reclaiming the shot he lost when he was demoted to co-main event for missing some pre-fight press conferences.

Condit is probably next in line after Georges St. Pierre.  

Fitch and Ellenberger are also very close to a title shot.  A little further, but not too far off, are Anthony Johnson and Rory MacDonald.  

The division is stacked with talent, and GSP will be busy for a while.

I've decided to rank GSP's most threatening potential future challengers, how those challengers would beat him and vice versa.

10. Jon Fitch

Jon Fitch, who until recently was the long-time second best welterweight in the world, stands very little chance of beating GSP in a rematch.

Jon Fitch's greatest strengths are his wrestling and control, both of which GSP does better.  In their first fight, GSP converted five of seven takedowns to Fitch's zero of five.

And GSP is easily the far better striker of the two.

If they fought again, I highly doubt Fitch could do much better.  Frankly, he hasn't looked much improved since his last bout with GSP.  

While he is certainly one of the most skilled welterweights in the world, he matches up horribly against GSP.

How Fitch Would Win: KO via upkick from guard

How GSP Would Win: Decision or TKO

9. Martin Kampmann

Martin Kampmann is 2-2 in his last four but could just as easily be 4-0.  

He is a well-rounded welterweight with good technical striking, power and a solid ground game.

He has shown a weakness to powerful strikers, but one thing GSP is not is a powerful striker.  Short of a flush head kick, nothing GSP throws is likely to knock Kampmann senseless.

That said, GSP has the far superior ground game and the better technical striking.  

I think he will wear Kampmann down and destroy him in the later rounds.  Kampmann simply isn't good enough at any one thing to be a significant threat to GSP.

How Kampmann Would Win: First round TKO

How GSP Would Win: Late TKO

8. Anthony Johnson

Johnson has actually come close to a title shot a few times but has always fallen just short.  If he ever does get a shot, he will pose some problems that no other fighter at welterweight could.  

And he's on the rise again.

Speaking conservatively, Anthony Johnson is a gorilla.  He looks like a light heavyweight when he fights and reportedly cuts around 50 pounds for a fight.  

This, combined with his good wrestling, could make it very difficult for GSP to take him down.

He's also very dynamic and has huge power.  In the UFC, he has four KO victories.

That said, his technique isn't great—he has been put on his back by worse wrestlers than GSP.  His cardio is also questionable.  

Johnson's best hope is to stuff some early takedowns and land the one hit he needs to end the fight.

How Johnson Would Win: TKO via headkick followed by strikes

How GSP Would Win: Third or Fourth round submission

7. BJ Penn

BJ Penn has considered retirement before, so I am tentatively keeping him on this list in case he decides to continue fighting.

Penn has a few advantages over most of GSP's challengers.

He's one of few fighters in the division who can stand with GSP.  In their first fight, Penn got the better of the standup, and in their second fight the standup was roughly even before Penn gassed.

And unlike many welterweight fighters with great standup (Diaz, Condit), he has excellent takedown defense.  Penn was able to thwart all three of GSP's first round takedown attempts in their second fight.

He has a high-level ground game as well.

That said, it became very apparent after his performance against Diaz that weight and conditioning are still serious problems.  

Penn's cardio is historically very good at lightweight, but he has gassed in every one of his welterweight bouts that have passed the first round.  

In a rematch, Penn would likely perform well against GSP in the first round, as he did against Diaz and GSP.  But he would soon tire and be overcome by GSP's superior conditioning.

How Penn Would Win: TKO/KO via punches

How GSP Would Win: Fourth round TKO

6. Carlos Condit

Carlos Condit was supposed to fight GSP at UFC 137 after Nick Diaz was demoted to the co-main event, but somehow everything went in Nick's favor.

Now, Condit is a fight away from the title again.

Condit is a striker/BJJ fighter.  His biggest assets in the standup are his dynamic attack and knockout power.  His reach equals GSP's.

That said, he leaves himself open with his strikes.  

Dan Hardy, Rory MacDonald and most notably, Jake Ellenberger, were able to get off many powerful shots on Condit.

His wrestling is also lacking, and his game off his back, while good, won't be good enough to thwart GSP's dominant top control and legendary guard pass.  

I think Condit will make the fight exciting, but he won't put GSP in any serious danger and will be soundly beaten.

How Condit Would Win: KO via knee

How GSP Would Win: TKO

5. Nick Diaz

Nick Diaz deserves all sorts of credits for the way he beat up BJ Penn at UFC 137.  It was the biggest test of his career by far, and he passed with flying colors.  

He is now set to fight Georges St. Pierre, most likely on Super Bowl weekend.

Diaz won't find this fight easy, though.  

He has had trouble with strong wrestlers in the past, and GSP is the best functional wrestler in MMA.  The last time it looked like GSP might be in the slightest danger of being submitted was five years ago, when he flirted with a gogoplata in Penn's guard.  

Since then, he has looked untouchable.  I don't think Diaz has the ground game to submit GSP.

GSP's striking also matches up well against Nick's.  Nick taunts his opponents and has below-average striking defense.  He often leaves his hands out to his sides before striking.  

Against GSP's incredible ability to move, this could get him into trouble.  When we account for GSP's kicks, that just furthers Nick's disadvantage.

Against the cage, Diaz is an absolute monster.  But GSP is a durable, strong and smart fighter, so it's unlikely he'll let Diaz tee off on him when his back is to the wall.  

When that happens, expect GSP to either clinch and reverse or take Diaz down.

Diaz also doesn't have much of a puncher's chance, since he lacks a phenomenal knockout.  The odds are stacked against Diaz.  But he does have resilience, drive and skill.  

He's a more dangerous opponent than most in the division.

How Diaz Would Win: TKO due to cuts

How GSP Would Win: TKO due to cuts (after rounds of pummeling from top position)

4. Josh Koscheck

Josh Koscheck, who lost unanimously to GSP twice, stands a better chance than many at taking GSP's belt.  

Provided he stays at welterweight, anyway.

The reason is simple—Koscheck is the only fighter whose wrestling can stand up to GSP's.  In over six years, he's the only fighter to take GSP down.  

Koscheck landed takedowns in both his fights against GSP.  In their second fight, GSP had great difficulty taking Koscheck down and couldn't hold him down when he did.

Still, GSP easily has the better striking of the two.  He made this painfully clear when he introduced Josh Koscheck's right orbital to his fist.  

Repeatedly.  

Koscheck's striking also didn't look much improved against Matt Hughes in his most recent bout.

That said, if Koscheck works on his striking, I could see him giving GSP problems.  If he were to fight GSP again and wanted to stand any real chance of winning, he would have to work on his striking and incorporate more offensive wrestling into his game plan. 

If he did that, he could give GSP some problems.

How Koscheck Would Win: Decision

How GSP Would Win: Decision

3. Jake Shields

Shields has fallen on some rough times since entering the UFC.

After edging out Martin Kampmann in a controversial split decision, he got a shot at GSP.  Apart from some cuts and an eye poke, Shields did no real damage and was easily defeated.  

He was then finished for the first time in 10 years at the hands of Jake Ellenberger.

That said, Shields is probably the only fighter in the division whose ground game, both top and bottom, is superior to GSP's.  

In their first fight, he shot for very few takedowns.  It's unlikely Shields would finish GSP from top position, but he has a better chance than most.  

More likely, after extensive training, he would be able to get GSP down a few times over the course of 25 minutes and steal some rounds from him.

How Jake Shields Would Win: Decision

How GSP Would Win: Decision

2. Jake Ellenberger

Jake Ellenberger received much praise for his quick stoppage against Jake Shields recently.  Many have called him the man to take out GSP.  

No one poses a greater threat of knocking out GSP in the standup game than Ellenberger.  Everything he throws is a serious concern.  

After losing to Condit in his UFC debut, he won five straight, including four finishes (though one was due to cuts).

However, he'll be vulnerable to GSP.  His very weak bottom game will get him into trouble, and his takedown defense, while good, is not great.  It's nowhere near the best of anyone GSP has fought.

Ellenberger was taken down and easily controlled by Carlos Eduardo Rocha, whose wrestling and top game are far inferior to GSP's.

GSP needs to be very wary of Ellenberger on the feet and in the clinch.  Just one punch or knee is all it would take to knock GSP out.  It would be dangerous for GSP to go the distance with Ellenberger, simply because he'd be affording him more chances to end the fight with his ridiculous power.  

If GSP wants to minimize risk, he'll go for an early finish.

How Ellenberger Would Win: KO by connecting with anything

How GSP Would Win: Armbar from mount

1. Rory MacDonald

While Rory MacDonald is still young and has lost to the only top 10 welterweight he has faced, his potential is undeniable.

Until the final stanza of his fight with Condit, he was getting the better of Condit both on the ground and on the feet.  

After that loss, he manhandled Nate Diaz for a lopsided unanimous decision victory and finished veteran Mike Pyle in the first round.

MacDonald is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the division.  His striking, wrestling, and BJJ are all strong.  The only challenger to GSP who may be more well-rounded than MacDonald is Penn, whose weight, conditioning and reach deficiencies present disadvantages MacDonald isn't susceptible to.

He'd also be GSP's first opponent who had a reach advantage over him, albeit only a half inch one.  

I think GSP has the slightly better ground game and striking, plus notably superior wrestling.  If they fought now, GSP would get the better of a theoretical encounter.  

But if MacDonald continues to improve, I could see him becoming a serious threat in a year or so.

How Macdonald Would Win: TKO

How GSP Would Win: Decision