Boise State Football: Previewing the Toledo Game

No. 4 Boise State will get back on the field this Friday after laying the smack down on Georgia on September 3rd, then relaxing on Saturday for their bye week. 

Their opponent in this ESPN Friday night game? The seemingly innocuous Toledo Rockets from the Mid-American Conference. 

But not so fast!  This team is coming off a 58-22 victory over New Hampshire in their season-opener on Sept. 1st,  and almost knocked off Ohio State at "The Shoe," only losing the game in the last minute on a turnover-on-downs in Buckeye territory.  Not to mention they’re also the preseason pick to win the MAC.  Make no mistake, the Rockets should not be taken lightly.

So what will Boise State's game plan be?  And for that matter, what will Toledo's game plan be against a seemingly unstoppable passing game, a powerful rushing attack and one of the best defenses in the country?  Oh and don't forget the pesky special teams that gave Georgia an average field position behind their own twenty-yard line.

What you will see from Boise State:

Offense:

The Boise State Offense will do what they do best. Be methodically efficient and incredibly disciplined.  Kellen Moore was 28-of-34 in his trip to Atlanta; against a weaker Rockets defense, with Geraldo Boldewijn (the 6'4", 4.3 second 40-yard sprinting wide receiver) back into the lineup, expect Moore to have explosive numbers.  That is if Boldewijn cleared to play, but with or without him Moore still has plenty to pass to. 

With a line that has three potential NFL prospects giving Moore all the time in the world to pick apart any defense, watch for him to experiment with both long and short passes.  The no-huddle offense and the efficiency of the play-calling had a "much more athletic Georgia team" huffing and puffing halfway through the drive.  Georgia still held off long passes but Toledo will not.  Moore will continue to pass to his entire committee of receivers, meaning the ball can go to just about anyone deep or short. 

They will all be fair game and Moore will place the ball perfectly.  The air will be Boise State's main attack.

That's not to say the running game has no place in the matchup.  Boise State's rush attack was good, but not exactly stellar against a tough Georgia defensive front.  Don't expect Toledo to have the same success against Boise State.  As I pointed out before this O-line is very good and the Broncos will measure up much better against the Toledo D-line then they did against the Georgia line.  Watch for Boise State to utilize two different backs. 

The first is Doug Martin, a powerful runner that is extremely strong.  He will run over defenders, break tackles, and gain a lot of yards after contact. The second is their finesse runner D.J. Harper.  Very quick and unpredictable, Harper finds holes that you swore weren't there a minute ago and once he gets going, expect him to cut around defenders with every run.  

The offense's one final "secret but not so secret" weapon is QB Grant Hedrick.  We didn't get to see him pass but he added another level of depth to the Boise State offense as a running QB.  When he lines up its almost assuredly a run play but the question is to who?  Will Hedrick keep it? Will it go to Martin, Harper, or a wide receiver on a sweep?  That's a lot to watch.  Oh, and just to be clear, Hedrick can pass too.

Defense:

Something that has been consistently underrated on this team is the defense.  After last year's performance leading to the honor of being the No. 2 defense in the country (behind fellow Mountain West Conference foe TCU), the country stood up and took notice.  Things have not changed in this defense as they brought back seven starters.  They got incredible penetration into the backfield against a very large Georgia line, sacking Aaron Murray six times and hurrying up almost every pass he made. 

Against Toledo, expect nothing different.  Bronco defensive linemen Winn, Mclellan and Crawford will make the evening a nightmare for Toledo.

Against Georgia, the Bronco secondary was a little over-matched and when Murray was allowed to plant his feet and throw Boise State's defenders would be beat. Toledo does not have that kind of speed across the board.  Jerrell Gavins should have an excellent game in the backfield and I expect George Iloka to make some big plays while moving around in the Bronco Secondary. 

What you will see from Toledo:

Offense:

The Rockets showed some impressive skill in their final drive from their own 28 and were only 17 yards away from ending Ohio State's 43-0-1 run against in-state foes.  This is due to quite a bit of experience returning for this Toledo offense. 

They have a total of 18 returning starters from last year's team and a few weapons in the mix as well. The first is WR Eric Page. Though he may only be 5’10" and 180 pounds, he is an incredible athlete that is deceptively quick.  The Broncos will need to keep an eye on this potential NFL prospect as he can be a handful. 

Toledo also has a strong running game with senior running back Adonis Thomas, who racked up over 1,000 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns last season.  He mixes in well and allows for a successful playaction.  Thomas' ability to roll to the outside as a safety valve for when Page is double covered allows them to gain at least a few yards on every completion.  The Broncos will need to focus on him in the flats since he will turn the ball up-field very quickly.

Where Toledo is seemingly lacking is in discipline, racking up an outrageous 14 penalties in their game against the Buckeyes.  But the overarching thing to take away from the Buckeye game when the Bronco defense is preparing for the Rockets is the Rockets only had one less first down than OSU, and outgained them 338 yards to 301.  This Toledo Offense is no slouch, and since they are picked to win the MAC and win over 10 games this season, watch for them to come out fighting against the stout Bronco defense. 

Defense:

The biggest advantage Toledo has on defense is experience.  Every position is filled with a junior or a senior and they have nine of 11 starters returning.  Do not expect this defense to be caught off guard.  MLB Dan Molls and Isiah Ballard return as two of the best tacklers on the Toledo squad.  The line did well against the Buckeye rush allowing only 112 yards on 34 carries and ranking 36th in the nation last year.  

Their weak spot is the secondary, and that is one place to not be weak against Kellen Moore.  Although they ranked 86th last year in passing defense, Toledo will rely on experience to keep the majority of the Bronco receivers covered. However, against a powerful Boise offense, if only the majority are covered you will fail and the Broncos will drive on you. 

With Austin Pettis and Titus Young absent and Boldwijn possibly missing a second game, the Rockets will not have a speed demon to worry about.  That doesn't mean they wont have their hands full.  Nine separate Broncos caught passes in the Georgia game and that could make this Bronco team even more dangerous then last years. Safeties Mark Singer and Jermaine Robinson have their work cut out for them.

Summary:

Last year Boise State tore into Toledo with a 57-14 walloping on the Blue.  Though I think the score may be a bit closer this year in Toledo, the sheer firepower Boise State brings on offense and a virtually unwavering defense makes this game almost impossible for Toledo to win.  But the key word is almost.  This is a team that almost upset the No. 15 Buckeyes at "the Shoe."  Boise State needs to be ready for this game, but I'm confident Chris Petersen will have his Broncos once again firing on all cylinders.

Predicted Score: Boise State wins 45-17