Patriots vs. Dolphins: 8 Stats That Matter on Monday Night Football Week 1

On paper, a 14-2 New England Patriots team from 2010 travels to Sun Life Stadium to take on a 7-9 Miami Dolphins team. In reality, one offseason can make all the difference in the world, and in Week 1, anything can happen.

Miami plays New England very tough just about every time the two teams meet, last year being an exception when the Patriots won by 27 and 31 points in the two meetings.

The first Monday Night Football game of the season figures to be a good one to start the season, as it will likely be a close game due to several factors.

Here are just some of the stats to keep track of as the game goes on.

Erik Frenz is the co-host of the PatsPropaganda and Frenz podcast. Follow Erik on Twitter  @erikfrenz. 

Patriots: Third Down Conversions Allowed

The Patriots biggest weakness in 2010 was on third down. They allowed opponents to convert an absurd 47.14 percent of their third downs. That number is one of the worst this decade, and is right in line with some teams that won two or three games in their respective years.

It was the interceptions that really saved them from being a much worse defense than they were.

Sure, there's some continuity back there with Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington back for another go, and Leigh Bodden has also returned from injury, but to expect 25 interceptions again may be asking too much. 

With a revamped secondary that bid adieu to Brandon Meriweather, Darius Butler and Jonathan Wilhite, New England will need to find other ways to make stops on third down in 2011.

Key number for success: 30 percent or less

Dolphins: Interceptions

This number applies both on offense and on defense.

Miami can't afford a typical Chad Henne performance. His 27-33 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions has to turn around if Miami wants to turn into a winning football team and hang with the league's best.

New England preys on opponents mistakes, without making many of their own.

That being said, while Henne has to play mistake-free football, Miami must get a solid effort from their defensive backs. This quote from Jonathan Comey over at Cold, Hard Football Facts is more than a little revealing:

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In 11 of Miami’s 16 games last year, the defense forced either one or no turnovers, and they went 3-8 in those games...Miami was No. 28 in interceptions (11) last year, and considering their excellent front seven, there’s little excuse for it.

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Although early pressure on Tom Brady will be key to the outcome of the game, that pressure is only made effective if the secondary can capitalize on the errant throws that result from the coverage.

Key number for success: any number that puts them in the plus margin for interception differential

Patriots: Completion Percentage

ESPN Boston writer Chris Forsberg gives his deep thoughts on the Patriots passing attack, pointing out several relevant and interesting stats as it pertains to New England's game plan against Miami.

Chief among those observations: Short and intermediate passing was the name of the game in both of New England's contests against Miami. 

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According to the wizards at ESPN Stats and Info, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady attempted 40 passes against the Dolphins last season and only two of them traveled 15 yards or more. In fact, all 24 of Brady's pass attempts during a 41-14 Week 4 win, and 14 of 16 attempts in a 38-7 Week 17 triumph, were shorter than 15 yards. By comparison, Brady attempted at least three passes of at least 15 yards in every other game last season.

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A higher completion percentage for Brady means the offense is likely throwing short routes with frequency. It also means New England is doing an effective job of putting the brakes on Miami's pass rush. 

For what it's worth, keep an eye on Brady's yards per attempt as well. He averaged 6.3 yards per attempt in the first meeting in 2010, a full 1.6 yards lower than his season average. These two numbers in unison will dictate how effective the passing game is, and whether they are accomplishing what they set out to do from a strategic standpoint.

Key number for success: 63 percent or higher

Dolphins: Time of Possession

The "tried and true" strategy to beat all-world quarterbacks like Brady has been to keep the ball out of their hands, maximizing time of possession by running the ball frequently.

That strategy alone won't win the game—Green Bay won the time of possession battle 40:48 to 19:12 and still lost to New England on Sunday Night Football last year—but it's a great place to start.

Another way to achieve the advantage in time of possession is with screen passes that act as an extension of the running game, and short routes that are sure completions. There are a limited number of "sure completions" with Chad Henne under center, but those plays have to be utilized and maximized for Miami to win this battle.

Key number for success: 35:00 or higher

Patriots: Defensive Passer Rating

This stat is important in every single game, but this was one of the Patriots biggest weaknesses in 2010. The Patriots had a Defensive Passer Rating of 81.2 last year, a clear indicator that they weren't a Super Bowl defense—only one championship defense in league history had a worse Defensive Passer Rating.  

This is a good game to get started with, as Chad Henne's career passer rating against the Patriots is just 73.2. He's 82-of-140 (58.6 percent) for 930 yards, four touchdowns and five interceptions lifetime against his AFC East rivals.

The Patriots took many measures to improve their defense this offseason, specifically in terms of harassing opposing quarterbacks and hurrying their timing. If they can't make significant improvements against Henne, that wouldn't be a very good start to the season.

Key number for success: 73 or less

Dolphins: Yards Per Carry

Sure, rush attempts will help a ton. The ball control will help the Dolphins achieve the ultimate goal of keeping the ball out of Brady's hands.

Attempts don't matter, though, if they're not going anywhere. The Dolphins have to be able to get yards on the ground, and not just yards, but first downs.

If the Dolphins can successfully run the ball for first downs, or at least set up manageable third downs, they greatly improve their chance of winning.

Key number for success: 3.4 or higher

Patriots: Yards After Catch

New England's offense is predicated on its ability to create yards after the catch on their underneath routes. YAC accounted for 50.94 percent of New England's air strike in 2010.

The aforementioned reliance on short and intermediate routes will make YAC even more important for New England's offense.

The Patriots averaged 128 yards after catch per game in 2010, and for a successful outing against the Dolphins, they'll need similar production or better.

Key number for success: 130 or more 

Dolphins: Sacks

This is an obligatory slide. Sacks on their own are an empty stat. What was the situation? Was it a third down sack that forced a punt in a close game, or a meaningless fourth quarter sack while down by 20?

That being said, a lack of sacks isn't necessarily a reason for flack. Pressures, hurries and everything in between also make for a good pass rush.

If Miami is able to create pressure early and keep that pressure on Brady, they severely improve their chance of winning. With Sebastian Vollmer listed as questionable on the injury report and having missed the past two practices with a back injury, the Patriots could dress just two "true" offensive tackles for Monday's game.

Cameron Wake, Miami's pass rushing beast, is already licking his chops at the smell of fresh blood. Will he sink his teeth in, or will New England's offensive front hold their ground? That could be the determining factor in this game.

Key stat for success: Three, or as many as it takes to hurry Brady's timing