Mizzou vs. ASU: Who Wins Under the Lights in Tempe?

Tonight in Tempe, AZ, the 21st-ranked University of Missouri Tigers square off against the Sun Devils of Arizona State.  Both teams enter the game at 1-0 after week one victories over lesser opponents.  In this game, be sure not to let the rankings fool you. The Sun Devils are essentially the No. 26 team in the country, as they received the most votes for any non-ranked team in the AP poll.

Let's get into the reasons why the action on the field tonight should be as hot as the Arizona weather:

How Mizzou wins: It all starts with the defense for the Tigers.  After years of being carried by the offense, Mizzou finds its roles reversed in 2011. Last week, Dave Steckel's defensive unit held the Miami (OH) Redhawks to six points, which was mainly the result of the offense turning over the ball deep in their own territory, and 270 totals yards of offense.  The defense is without two starters tonight in DE Jacquies Smith and LB Will Ebner, but they appear to be returning one of their starting CBs, Kip Edwards. Mizzou head coach Gary Pinkel will need to rely on his defense to stop the improving ASU offense, who averaged over than 30 points-per-game in 2010 and put up 48 points last week on UC-Davis. 

However, let's not think the defense can do it all by themselves.  They will need some points and sustained drives out of QB James Franklin and the Tiger offense.  After an uneven performance last week, Franklin looks to recapture the form he showed at the end of spring practices, which secured him the job over ex-Tiger Tyler Gabbert.  The offense will be without starting RB Kendial Lawernce, but the unit still has plenty of experience with nearly all of their top RBs and WRs returning from last year.  If the offensive line can weather the absence of LT Elvis Fisher and C Travis Ruth, they can keep ASU out of the backfield and give Franklin time to throw it or a hole to tuck-and-run with it. 

How ASU wins: After looking all-world against UC Davis last week (granted, they're not even a FBS school), the Sun Devils are rolling on both sides of the ball. The offense racked up nearly 500 total yards and the rushing game saw eight different players touch the ball. Junior QB Brock Osweiler (270yds, 2 TDs last week) leads the passing attack against a Mizzou secondary that only returns two starters from last year. 

On defense, the havoc-maker is LB Vontaza Burfict, who accounted for three sacks in week one.  With the injuries to Mizzou's offensive line, they will be hard-pressed to keep him out of Franklin's face all night.  Any negative yardage plays for the Tigers will only be magnified with an offensive that is still trying to find it's way out of first gear.  Add to that the stout ASU run defense going against a MU squad missing it's starter from last week, and the Sun Devils can force Franklin to get the job done through air.  If you watched any of the Mizzou game from last week you know that might spell doom for the Tigers. 

Game Notes: Current line is -8.5 for ASU (as of Friday morning).  Game is at 9:30pm EST on ESPN.  Debut for ASU's all-black uniforms (promised to be much better than Maryland's kit) and will be a "black-out" game for the crowd, as well (fans encouraged to wear black shirts). 

Prediction: The injuries are plentiful for the Tigers right now and going to a hostile environment against a worthy Pac-12 team is just asking too much out of Gary Pinkel's squad.  I think the defense will keep Mizzou in the game for awhile, but it won't be quite enough to pull out the victory on the road.  Final score: ASU 24, MU 20.