Fantasy Football Sleepers: Matthew Stafford and 9 Players Worth Paying Big For
Owners that think popular fantasy football sleepers will be looked over by others in the draft are a victim of short-sighted thinking.
In each season, there is typically a long list of players that are pegged as sleepers. 2011 is no different, as we have seen the ADP of players like Julio Jones sky rocket since training camp began after the lockout.
Just a single day before the 2011 NFL season gets underway, there are still a lot of questionable selections being made, and smart owners can really find success through targeting value.
Let's take a look at ten players that should be a slam dunk to outperform where they're being selected.
Note: All listed ADP's are courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com and are accurate as of 9/7/2011
10. Owen Daniels, TE Houston Texas
1 of 10ADP: 71.2
Daniels fell off of the fantasy radar after a down season in 2010 left owners falling well short of expectations, but he shouldn't be completely ignored going forward.
The Texans have a legitimate chance to win the division due to Peyton Manning's injury, and Matt Schaub will definitely be looking to air it in an effort to claim the crown.
Andre Johnson is the obvious primary target on this team, but when all of those deep routes that he and Jacoby Jones are running are covered, Daniels should have no trouble finding an open spot across the middle.
Assuming he stays healthy, Daniels could finish the season as a top five fantasy tight end.
9. Danny Woodhead, RB New England Patriots
2 of 10ADP: 127.4
Before faithful owners of BenJarvus "The Law Firm" Green-Ellis proceed to denounce me, just take a moment and dig a little deeper.
The Patriots have rarely used high-end draft picks on running backs, and this season, they chose to draft two of them despite Green-Ellis' breakout (fantasy) season.
While Green-Ellis is going to get his shots with the team, I really doubt he's going to match his production from last season.
Woodhead is going to be on the field for passing downs, and as we've seen in the past, Brady has an immense amount of trust in his tiny teammate.
No. 39's outlook gets a boost in PPR leagues, and it's very possible he proves to be the most valuable Patriots running back from a fantasy stand point by season's end.
8. Ben Tate, RB Houston Texans
3 of 10ADP: 109.5
Even if you're not an Arian Foster owner, I suggest you take a long, hard look at Tate.
Before torn ankle ligaments and a fractured fibula ended his 2010 campaign before it even got underway, Tate was considered the favorite to take snaps in the Houston backfield.
That's right, ahead of Foster.
A second round pick out of Auburn, the Texans held high expectations for Tate, and likely still do considering what he's shown in the preseason.
There aren't a lot of backup running backs that would be instantly catapulted to elite RB1 status if the starter suffered an injury, but that's exactly what owners would get with Tate.
And if you're a Foster owner, owning Tate is imperative.
7. Jordy Nelson, WR Green Bay Packers
4 of 10ADP: 122.2
Donald Driver is in obvious decline, and with James Jones expected to take over his starting role at some point this season, the slot is wide open for Nelson to dominate.
A healthy receiving corps for the Packers would mean a healthy dose of Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley, but Nelson is going to get his fair share of looks as well after earning Aaron Rodgers' trust down the stretch last season.
When defenses are worried about double-covering Finley over the middle and not letting Jennings burn them over the top, Nelson is going to be roaming the middle of the field in single coverage more often than not.
He's not a slam dunk for a ton of touchdowns, but he's a good bet to improve on his total receptions and receiving yards.
6. Sam Bradford, QB St. Louis Rams
5 of 10ADP: 96.6
I'm not sure why a fair amount of owners are drafting Matt Cassel ahead of Sam Bradford, but that's not a strategy I would advocate to anyone.
The Rams have a legitimate shot to come out on top of the division once again, and the fate of the team's success lies heavily on Bradford's throwing shoulder.
He may not have the sexiest receiving corps in the game, but he's proven that he can be productive without one.
After throwing for more than 3,500 yards and 18 TD's as a rookie, I expect both of those numbers to rise.
A secondary campaign where Bradford clocks in at just short of 4,000 yards and 22-25 scores looks like a good one for my roster.
5. Emmanuel Sanders, WR Pittsburgh Steelers
6 of 10ADP: 150.0
Sanders was beginning to fall earlier in the preseason because of a slow healing process with his foot, but that's no longer a concern for the speedy receiver.
One of the most intriguing sleepers in the fantasy landscape for 2011, I have targeted Sanders in every draft that I've taken part in, and I'm expecting his talent to really show as the season progresses.
Those looking to Antonio Brown as a sleeper should alter course and target this member of the Steelers instead, as he's a better bet for production over the course of the season.
This is one roster stash that could really pay off.
4. Tim Hightower, RB Washington Redskins
7 of 10ADP: 55.8
I can't believe that Hightower getting drafted at his current ADP is too low for him considering what we've seen from him in the past, but new teams really change everything.
Hightower appears to be a perfect fit in Coach Mike Shanahan's offensive scheme, as he's looked like a one-man wrecking crew throughout the preseason.
His hard-nosed style of running has really been beneficial, and he's had no trouble exploding into the secondary.
Looking like he's motivated and on a mission to prove his worth in the league, Hightower has the looks of a rock-solid RB2 with comfortable job security.
By comparison, Ryan Grant's ADP is 58.0.
That point should resonate loudly for smart owners.
3. Reggie Bush, RB Miami Dolphins
8 of 10ADP: 74.8
Bush is the unquestioned starter for the Dolphins, and it's going to be really interesting to see how his new home affects his game.
By all accounts, Bush has appeared to be a more physical runner, expressing no concern about running in the middle of the field and attempting to avoid tackles.
He's going to be featured prominently in the 'Fins offense on the ground and through the air, and it's not inconceivable to imagine that he could hover around 20 touches on a weekly basis.
Bush is best suited for PPR leagues where owners will get monstrous rewards for his receiving game, but for the first time in his career, Bush could prove be an asset in standard-scoring leagues as well.
Daniel Thomas just isn't fooling anyone.
2. Matthew Stafford, QB Detroit Lions
9 of 10ADP: 77.6
Injury concerns are valid with Stafford who has played just 13 of 32 games in his professional career thus far, but the potential reward far outweighs the risk with the third-year quarterback.
Stafford has looked sparkling in the preseason, and there's a reason that the Lions drafted him first overall out of Georgia.
With a cannon for an arm, the Stafford-Calvin Johnson has owners salivating over the prolific production that the quarterback could enjoy, and it's really just a matter of him staying healthy.
While owners are going to have to roll with a capable backup that can start in a pinch, Stafford is an excellent QB1 option when other owners are busy overpaying for other quarterbacks that are past their best fantasy days.
1. Mario Manningham, WR New York Giants
10 of 10ADP: 59.6
Manningham has been my favorite wide receiver to target since long before the preseason got underway, and with the season kicking off this week, nothing has changed.
Although his ADP has skyrocketed considerably over the last month, Manningham is still a value at the back end of the fifth round.
His floor is as a legitimate WR2 considering that he's primed for a monstrous season opposite Hakeem Nicks, and it's very possible that Manningham could border WR1 status if he fires on all cylinders for the Giants this season.
With the team's defense as banged up as it is, the G-Men are going to be forced to air it out with regularity in an effort to stay in the game, and that bodes very well for Manningham's fantasy outlook moving forward.
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