Notre Dame 4-Point Fave over Michigan: Overvalued Again?

Sometimes I think the sports books make all their money on one team—Notre Dame. 

With all the passionate Notre Dame fans out there why not raise the spread a little?  They'll bet on Notre Dame anyway.

Why not set the spread on the USF game at 10 even though most of us knew it should have been somewhere around four or five?

For one thing, going to South Bend was no big deal for USF like some folks wanted to believe it was.

It wasn't a big deal when the Bulls beat Miami on the road last year, with their second-string quarterback, and it wasn't a big deal when they beat FSU on the road the year before.

It wasn't a big deal when they won at Auburn, on Saturday night in 2007 and it wasn't a big deal when they beat No. 2-ranked West Virginia two weeks later.

And it wasn't a big deal when they beat a 10-1 West Virginia team the year before that.

Now the Irish head up to Ann Arbor to play arch rival Michigan in the first night game in Big House history. 

Michigan had a nice win in their opener against Western Michigan and they've won four of the last five against the Irish.  Why the four points?

Michigan's defense has been a problem.  Notre Dame should be able to score a lot of points against them on Saturday.  Everyone expects it.

But how do you stop Michigan's dual-threat quarterback Denard Robinson?  He was the leading candidate for the Heisman halfway through last season.

I'm not a betting man but I might make an exception and be the over in this game.

Back to the four-point spread; it's a lot to give up on the road to Michigan or any other team from a BCS conference.

But as long as the AP ranks Notre Dame No. 16 in their preseason poll, and as long as analysts like Phil Steele rank them No. 6 in his, the sports books will keep raising the spread and overvalue this team.

Let me re-phrase that: it doesn't matter if the Irish are ranked or not, the sports books will keep overvaluing them because that's what the market bears.