NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 1: Head Coaches Are Important to Handicap

Casual sports bettors will often get overwhelmed by the amount of information available when handicapping the National Football League. 

Often times, finding success against the lines-maker is as simple as analyzing the head-coaching matchup in each particular contest.

In talking with some professional handicappers from across the country—this factor has gained even more importance this year due to the amount of practice time that was eliminated due to the lockout.

It's a major angle that can't be ignored—experienced head coaches are likely to have a significant edge on the sidelines during the early parts of the 2011 season.

Let's take a look at how some of these masterminds have fared against-the-spread in Week 1.

Ken Whisenhunt, Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals will be under the direction of Ken Whisenhunt for a fifth year entering the 2011 campaign and he was the first coach in franchise history with a .500 or better record in each of his first three seasons.

His record took a step back without veteran quarterback Kurt Warner leading the team last season, posting a 5-11 mark.

Whisenhunt hasn't had trouble getting the attention of his players in Week 1—playing division rivals to open the season in his first four years.  The Cardinals have responded with a 3-1 ATS record.

Problem is—his only loss versus the lines-maker was as a home favorite—dropping a 20-16 contest against San Francisco in 2009.

The Cardinals are seven-point home favorites against the Carolina Panthers next Sunday.

Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons head coach Mike Smith led the team to the top record in the NFC with a 13-3 mark in 2010—before exiting out of the playoffs with a 48-21 loss versus the Green Bay Packers as one-point home favorites.

The 52-year-old will be opening up away from home for the second consecutive year, failing to cover as one-point road favorites in a 15-9 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers last year.

Smith is 2-1 ATS in opening contests and 2.5-point road favorites against the Chicago Bears seven days from now.

John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh has led the team to 32 regular season whens in his first three years and has tallied a winning 4-3 mark in the playoffs.

He will put his unblemished 3-0 ATS season-opening mark on the line Sunday when playing host to the Pittsburgh Steelers as a field-goal favorite.

Two of those games were played at M&T Bank Stadium—a 38-24 win as 13-point favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs in 2009, and a 17-10 victory as a one-point underdog versus the Cincinnati Bengals in his 2008 debut.

Chan Gailey, Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills begin the second year under head coach Chan Gailey and will be looking for a better start to open the 2011 season than what occurred last year.

Miami handed Buffalo a 15-10 home loss as three-point underdogs in 2010.

While leading the Dallas Cowboys for two seasons (1998-99), Gailey came away with consecutive spread victories over the Washington Redskins and Arizona Cardinals.

Buffalo is a 6.5-point road underdog versus the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1.

Lovie Smith, Chicago Bears

Chicago Bears head coach Lovie Smith will open up against a non-division team for the first time in three years and is 3-4 against-the spread in season openers.

This year's situation is unique in welcoming in the Atlanta Falcons, as the Bears will be Week 1 home underdogs for the first time in his tenure.

It could lead to him evening up his against-the-spread record, starting his eighth year in the Windy City.

Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis enters his ninth year on the sidelines and is the longest tenured coach in franchise history.

The Bengals are 3-5 ATS in opening seasons under his direction—dropping three consecutive against the number by an average of 8.8 points a contest.

It's hard to imagine a spread victory in a road opener, but when was the last time the Cleveland Browns covered as favorites of 6 1/2 points or more?

Interesting.

John Fox, Denver Broncos

John Fox moves west after spending nine seasons as head coach of the Carolina Panthers and brings a 73-71 career record to the Mile High City.

Bettors are likely to stay away from backing the Broncos in their home opener against the Oakland Raiders as three-point favorites.  Fox is 3-6 ATS in season openers—including a 0-4 ATS mark when host.

Then again, Oakland begins life with rookie head coach Hue Jackson.

Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions were the only team to finish the 2011 NFL preseason with a perfect 4-0 straight-up and against-the-spread record.  That's a significant accomplishment—even in meaningless games.

Lions head coach Jim Schwartz will open up the season on the road for the third consecutive year, posting a spread victory over the Chicago Bears in a 19-14 (+6.5) loss last year and dropping a 45-27 (+14) contest against New Orleans.

Run and hide from the Pride if they become road favorites against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday.

Mike McCarthy, Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers start defense of their Super Bowl title Thursday night when hosting the New Orleans Saints Thursday night as four-point favorites.

Packers head coach Mike McCarthy has tallied a 4-1 ATS mark in season openers, including covers in four straight since a 26-0 loss to the Chicago Bears as 3.5-point home underdogs in 2006.

The competition has been pretty stiff in all five contests—playing the Bears (twice), Eagles (twice) and Vikings.

McCarthy and starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers have been a bettor's best friend in cashing three consecutive tickets.

Gary Kubiak, Houston Texans

Houston Texans head coach Gary Kubiak has tallied a 2-3 ATS mark in his first five season openers.

He will be aiming for his second consecutive spread victory to open a campaign against the Indianapolis Colts, coming away with a 34-24 victory as one-point home underdogs a year ago.

The Texans dropped their last opening tilt when favored—falling 24-7 (-4.5) versus the New York Jets in 2009.

Bettors are waiting anxiously to see if Indianapolis starting quarterback Peyton Manning will participate Sunday.

Definitely a difference-maker when handicapping this contest.

Jim Caldwell, Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis has failed to cover each of Jim Caldwell's season openers, including a 34-24 loss against the Houston Texans as one-point road favorites a year ago.

His current placement as an underdog could change things, as the Colts have covered three of his four games when receiving points.

It's likely that will be the case Sunday—with or without Mr. Manning.

Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville's Jack Del Rio is the seventh-winningest active head coach in the National Football League and will begin his ninth year on the sidelines in 2011.

The Jaguars have tallied a 6-2 ATS record in season openers under his direction, but there's an alarming trend within that number.

Lines-makers have made Jacksonville three-point home favorites against the Tennessee Titans Sunday—a team that has handed Del Rio the two blemishes.

He is also 25-32-1 ATS as a head-coaching favorite.

Interesting.

Todd Haley, Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs head coach Todd Haley is 1-1 ATS in season openers entering his third season, picking up an outright 21-14 (+4) win over the San Diego Chargers last year, while dropping a 38-24 (+13) road contest in Baltimore in his head-coaching debut.

Haley opens up a campaign as a home favorite for the first time in his career, coming off another preseason of failing to pick up an ATS victory.

Road games against the Detroit Lions and San Diego Chargers loom ahead—leaving many handicappers wondering if this favorite will go down in flames.

Tony Sparano, Miami Dolphins

Miami Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano begins life without running backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, which could prove troublesome in the opener.

The Dolphins have managed to score a combined 36 points in his first three season openers, failing to cover the spread in two of the three games.

Playing host to New England Sunday is likely to not end well—bringing in a 7-18 ATS record at home—including a 4-6 mark when getting points at Sun Life Stadium.

Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

New England head coach Bill Belichick will enter the 2011 season as the second-longest tenured NFL head coach behind only Philadelphia's Andy Reid.

The Patriots are 4-6-1 ATS when opening the season under Belichick, but tallied a 38-14 (-6) victory over the New York Jets in the only prior instance of being favored on the road in Week 1.

Bettors find the Patriots favored by seven points in South Beach Monday night, which is a hefty price with the underdog covering five of the last seven meetings.

Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints

New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton is an impressive 3-1 ATS in season openers, but will be starting on the road for the first time since his first campaign in 2007.

The Saints suffered a 41-10 road loss to the Indianapolis Colts as 5.5-point underdogs in that contest.

It's unlikely that he will suffer such a defeat on Thursday, but facing another top-flight quarterback on the road may cause the team to start the season in the loss column.  New Orleans is a four-point underdog against Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers.

Tom Coughlin, New York Giants

New York Giants head coach Tom Coughlin is 3-3-1 ATS in season openers, including a 31-18 win over the Carolina Panthers as 5.5-point home favorites last year.

There's one significant difference between this year's openers than others under his direction—the Giants are road favorites.

New York will open up against Washington for the third time in four years, picking up 23-17 (-6) and 16-7 (-4.5) home wins in those contests.

Coughlin has compiled a 37-22-1 ATS mark on the road in his seven years in the "Big Apple."

Rex Ryan, New York Jets

Rex Ryan failed to deliver in a 10-9 home loss against the Baltimore Ravens in last year's opener, a team that he previously worked for as defensive coordinator.

New York covered his head-coaching debut in a 24-7 straight-up road win as 4.5-point underdogs in Houston during the 2009 campaign.

Ryan's squad is a 4.5-point home favorite against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1.

Andy Reid, Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia head coach Andy Reid has produced a 7-5-1 ATS mark in season openers and will be favored for the fifth time in the situation against the St. Louis Rams Sunday.

Reid is 2-2 ATS in the four previous tries, including a 38-10 blowout win in Carolina two years back.

Michael Vick will make his first opening-week start for Philadelphia, as he nearly led a come-from-behind victory in backing up Kevin Kolb in last year's 27-20 season-opening home loss to the Green Bay Packers.

Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is 2-1 ATS in season openers and the defense has been outstanding in leading the team to three straight-up victories—surrendering just 36 combined points.

There's one major difference in Week 1 this year, as the Steelers will be opening away from Heinz Field under his direction for the first time.

It may be a blessing for bettors, considering Tomlin's 9-4 ATS mark as an underdog.

Steve Spagnuolo, St. Louis Rams

St. Louis has dropped both season-opening contests under the direction of head coach Steve Spagnuolo, including a 17-13 loss versus the Arizona Cardinals as three-point home underdogs last year.

Many handicappers will be quick to point out that second-year quarterback Sam Bradford made his first career start for the Rams in that contest.

It's still an eye opener that he's been outscored by a 45-13 margin in Week 1 in his two years on the sidelines.

St. Louis opens up against the Philadelphia Eagles, and will look to even up its 6-7 ATS mark as a home underdog since 2009.

Norv Turner, San Diego Chargers

The San Diego Chargers have been victimized by slow starts under Norv Turner and he's also 1-3 ATS in season openers.

Turner won his Chargers' debut with a 14-3 home win over the Chicago Bears as a touchdown-favorite in 2007.

He has failed to cover the last three such contests by an average of 9.5 points.

Look out—San Diego's a nine-point home favorite against the Minnesota Vikings Sunday with a road contest against the New England Patriots dead ahead.

Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll burst back into the NFL scene with a resounding 31-6 win over the San Francisco 49ers as three-point home underdogs in last year's season opener.

Carroll's squad is once again an underdog to open a season, traveling to San Francisco and currently getting six points.

The biggest difference between this year's opener and a week from now—veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is now in Tennessee.

Raheem Morris, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers covered as 2.5-point home favorites by the slimmest of margins in last year's 17-14 season-opening win over the Cleveland Browns.

Buccaneers Raheem Morris dropped his head-coaching debut to the Dallas Cowboys, falling 34-21 as a 4.5-point home underdog in 2009.

One thing is certain—few lines are being watched more closely in Las Vegas than Sunday's home opener against the Detroit Lions. 

Tampa Bay is 2-2-1 ATS when Morris' is favored at home, compared to 1-7 ATS when getting points at Raymond James Stadium.

Mike Shanahan, Washington Redskins

Washington Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan has dealt with two difficult NFL preseasons in the nation's capitol—dealing with defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth last year and overseeing a quarterback competition in four exhibition contests in 2011.

Shanahan delivered as a 3.5-point home underdog last year, registering a 13-7 season-opening win over the Dallas Cowboys.

It will be interesting to see if he can deliver the same type of magic in hosting another division rival in Week 1 this year.  Washington is a field goal underdog to the New York Giants a week from today.