Notre Dame Football: How Upset Loss Will Hurt Fighting Irish's BCS Hopes

Well, so much for that Notre Dame Fighting Irish hype in the preseason.

After a promising offseason that saw starting quarterback Dayne Crist come back from injury, star receiver Michael Floyd return from suspension and freshman defensive end Aaron Lynch draw rave reviews, the Fighting Irish lost in their first game of the season on Saturday against visiting South Florida, 23-20.

Now, for a team ranked No. 16 in the AP poll and expected to contend for a BCS bowl, the Fighting Irish are in danger of doing worse: not making a bowl game at all. 

Who's the Biggest Winner?

The South Florida Bulls. Repeat: the South Florida Bulls. 

Seriously, who could have seen this coming? The Bulls had a ho-hum season in 2010, and there was nothing to suggest they'd come roaring out of the gates in 2011. For a team that didn't receive a single vote in the AP Top 25 preseason poll, the Bulls got off to a 16-0 head start on Saturday against Notre Dame behind a 96-yard fumble return for a touchdown by junior cornerback Kayvon Webster.

Based on the preseason rankings, Notre Dame was supposed to be USF's biggest foe of the season. A win points the Bulls to a surprising campaign in 2011. 

Does Notre Dame Still Have a BCS Chance?

The Fighting Irish certainly haven't helped themselves with an early defeat against South Florida, but Virginia Tech lost their first games of the 2010 season, including to James Madison, and still made it to the Orange Bowl.

The Fighting Irish still have a chance. They're going to have to go on a similar run to that of the 2010 Hokies (who won their final 11 regular season games), but the bottom line is they're not out of it yet.

Notre Dame faces three currently ranked teams over the rest of the season—Michigan State, USC and Stanford. The Irish's Sept. 17 matchup against MSU could be huge. A big win there could give them the needed momentum to potentially topple USC, and although they don't look like a team capable of standing up against Stanford, a lot can happen between now and Nov. 26. 

What It Means

What does it all mean?! No, I'm not having an existential meltdown. This is what Notre Dame fans are going through right now. In short, it's not pretty.

What Notre Dame's game against South Florida showed us on Saturday was that the Irish aren't the team we thought they were. At least, not yet.

Starting QB Dayne Crist simply looked bad, and for all the talk about Notre Dame's defensive line, it managed just one sack. On top of this, the Irish fumbled the ball a whopping four times, losing two of them, and threw three interceptions between Crist and second-half starter Tommy Rees. Did I mention kicker David Ruffer missed his only field-goal attempt? In short, a bad game for anyone not named Michael Floyd. 

Biggest Thing To Fix

The Notre Dame defensive line is just too talented to be this unproductive the entire season. But the quarterback situation has once again come to the forefront.

Starter Dayne Crist was pulled after a first half in which he went 7-of-15 for 95 yards and an interception. Running back Cierre Wood ended up with more yards than that on the ground (104). Sophomore Tommy Rees, who did a commendable job taking over for Crist when he went down to injury last season, was noticeably better, completing 70 percent of his throws for 296 yards, but he also threw two interceptions and fumbled the ball once (fortunately recovered).

I wouldn't be surprised if the Fighting Irish turned to Rees after Crist's ugly performance, but it's not like Rees is looking like their savior, either. 

Pivotal Turnaround Game

As mentioned, Notre Dame's biggest game after their season-opening loss could be Sept. 17 against Michigan State, which just soundly defeated Youngstown State, 28-6, in its first game. Notre Dame will undoubtedly need to put more pressure on Spartans QB Kirk Cousins in their matchup. Whoever is at QB for the Fighting Irish will also need to be wary of a Spartans defense that certainly lost some stars but appears to have some apt replacements. A loss here could all but destroy Notre Dame's BCS aspirations. 

Who They Play Next

Notre Dame faces the Michigan Wolverines next, a team coming off a disappointing 2010 under former head coach Rich Rodriguez. However, despite being unranked, the Wolverines have the potential to surprise this season under new head coach Brady Hoke, who did a tremendous job building up San Diego State last season.

They also figure to have a better defense this season, as well as some playmakers—particularly quarterback Denard Robinson. I expect the Wolverines to be better this season, and that makes them a foe that cannot be overlooked.