Fantasy Football Sleepers: 5 Former Sleepers You Should Avoid in 2011
Finding a good sleeper during the season or in your draft is a beautiful thing. Not only do they give you surprising production, but they give you the satisfaction that you, not your friends in your league, found the hidden gem.
Following a breakout year, sleepers often return to Earth. Like in fantasy, NFL teams are no longer caught by surprise. That player is on the radar now and will be better accounted for. It's important that you avoid these former sleepers and let other owners pay for production they will no longer be able to produce.
There are five players at the top of my list of former sleepers to avoid this season.
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Peyton Hillis, Cleveland Browns
I don't think it's hyperbole to say that Hillis won leagues for thousands of fantasy players last season. The running back that was undrafted in all but the largest of leagues before last season emerged as a bell cow running back.
As a big back with a nose for the end zone, Hillis will still have a lot of value, but he won't have near the raw totals that he had in 2010. Hillis' rushing totals were a product of the number of carries he received. His average was somewhat underwhelming for a feature back.
With defenses more aware of him and a passing game around him that still leaves a lot to be desired, Hillis will fall well short of being the top running back he is being drafted as in many leagues.
LaGarrette Blount, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Blount was another surprise starter that had a huge effect on many fantasy leagues. He came into the season as the backup to Cadillac Williams, but he quickly worked his way out of Williams' shadow.
Last season, he rushed for just over 1,000 yards on a solid five yards per carry average. As more is expected of him in 2011, Blount will take a step back. Williams is now with the St. Louis Rams and no one was brought in to replace him as the backup.
Blount will be asked to carry the ball more than he is used to. While his totals might increase a bit, his averages and overall productivity will drop.
Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders
After two seasons marred by injuries, McFadden finally showed a glimpse of what he could become with a solid performance in 2010. He rushed for 1,157 yards and seven touchdowns. The pieces are in place for him to eclipse that in 2011, but it's just not likely.
Don't be the one in your league to bet on McFadden putting together another healthy season. Injury-prone players tend to be injury-prone for their entire career and McFadden qualifies.
It also won't help that he has competition in the backfield yet again. Michael Bush returns and if nothing else, he will cut into McFadden's carries at the goal line.
Brandon Lloyd, Denver Broncos
Before 2010, Lloyd had been a solid, if unspectacular, receiver. He was often a player that was worth having on your fantasy roster, but he wasn't someone you wanted to be betting on having a big year. Things look different after last season.
Lloyd was among the top-scoring receivers in all of fantasy. His 11 touchdowns were a huge boon to any owner that had him. Don't take or bid on Lloyd based on that production. That's not happening again in 2011.
Unless you are a perennial Pro Bowl receiver, double-digit touchdowns are hard to pull off to begin with, much less in back to back seasons. Kyle Orton is competent at quarterback, but he isn't someone that's going to improve the play of guys around him. It also won't help that Josh McDaniels, who loves to throw the ball, is no longer in charge of the offense.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, New England Patriots
Green-Ellis will be another running back in the line of cautionary tales when it comes to chasing touchdown totals. High touchdown totals can win you your league, but you have to be careful when trying to find guys that will have the top totals.
Last season, he had 13 touchdowns even though he "only" rushed for 1,008 yards. With other backs in the fold in New England, I don't expect his carries to increase, If anything, Bill Belichick will split carries even more. He loves to rotate backs in and out heavily and that won't change.
Green-Ellis will still be the primary back at the goal line, but touchdowns are a funny thing. If Tom Brady completes a few more long passes or someone else finds time in the red zone offense, Green-Ellis could see his touchdown total cut in half.

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