NFC East Predictions: Calling the Statistical Leaders in 10 Major Categories

Why do we, the bloggers and amateur sportswriters of the world, make predictions about yet-to-be played football games?

Because we’re sadists. Because we revel in your hateful commentary. Because Satan is our motor.

So just know that your disdain makes us stronger.

I’m sure there will be plenty to rail against in the upcoming slideshow of statistical projections.

But remember to mind the beast before you feed it.

Passing Yards

1. Tony Romo - 4,400 yards
2. Eli Manning - 4,000 yards
3. Michael Vick - 3,750 yards

Vick may be the most gifted quarterback in the NFC East, but he’s not nearly as prolific a passer as Romo. Even with last year’s slow start, Romo was on pace to pass for over 4,200 yards, and when healthy he’s a sure bet to reach 4,000. Romo still has plenty of good players around him and a lot less drama than usual. Those two things combined will work to his benefit.

Manning has hovered right around the 4,000 yard mark each of the last two seasons and is the most reliable of the bunch. He paced the field last year largely because of injuries to his two main competitors, and he would probably have to hope for similar luck to repeat as NFC East passing champ.

Last year was Vick’s first season with more than 3,000 passing yards. Considering those 3,018 came over the course of just 11.5 games, Vick seems like a good candidate for a yardage spike. He’s clearly working to become a more effective pocket passer which ought to help those totals. Even then, and considering his injury history, he’s unlikely to overtake Manning or Romo.

QB Rating

1. Michael Vick - 98.2
2. Tony Romo - 95.6
3. Eli Manning - 82.2

I’m buying Michael Vick because I am an Eagles fan and, well, we just bought Michael Vick. I need this lottery ticket to hit, baby. Romo has had a QB rating above 90 every single year he’s even attempted a pass in the NFL. Manning has only crossed that threshold once. So between those two it wasn’t a hard choice.

Passing Touchdowns

1. Eli Manning - 32
2. Tony Romo - 29
3. Michael Vick - 24

The Plaxico debacle may have hurt Eli Manning in other ways, but it certainly hasn’t prevented him from throwing touchdowns by the bushel. Manning set a career high last year with 31 and figures to keep on chucking it up in the red zone. He probably takes too many risks for his own good, but those risks turn up golden often enough to keep him near the top of the league in this category.

Vick versus Romo should be an interesting duel, with Vick’s propensity for scoring on the ground hurting his air numbers just enough to give Romo an edge.

Rushing Yards

1. LeSean McCoy - 1,250 yards
2. Ahmad Bradshaw - 1,100 yards
3. Felix Jones - 1,050 yards

McCoy’s arrow is pointing up, and he’s the only true feature back in the division with any sort of experience in that role. Though other teams will attempt more rushes than the Eagles, the percentages work in LeSean’s favor.

Bradshaw looked great last year and should jockey with McCoy for the top spot all year. I’m predicting a decline in his numbers only because I expect a big year out of Brandon Jacobs. If Jacobs continues to run as he has in the preseason, Bradshaw won’t get the same number of attempts he got last year.

With Marion Barber out of the picture in Big D, Jones is the lead dog for the first time. Like McCoy last year, Jones will have to adjust to the rigors of full-time starting duty. If he makes the transition successfully, he could surpass even this optimistic prediction. McCoy’s 1,080 performance in 2010 is a good benchmark for Jones.

Ryan Torain might have been a nice sleeper pick on this slide, but his preseason injury, abetted by breakout performances from backups Tim Hightower and Roy Helu, Jr., sour his outlook.

Rushing Touchdowns

1. Brandon Jacobs - 10
2. LeSean McCoy - 8
3. Michael Vick - 7

I’m bullish on Brandon Jacobs this year. He looks vibrant, even frisky in the preseason, as evidenced by his tiff with Muhammad Wilkerson of the Jets. He’s always been a prototypical red-zone back with big TD numbers, and I’m looking for at least one more prime season from the veteran bull-rusher. And hey, look at this, someone with a job agrees with me.

Vick scored nine times on the ground last year in just 12 games, so putting him on this list isn’t just a desperate plea for attention. If anything, it’s a conservative estimate. I’m predicting Vick makes less plays with his feet this year in an attempt to stay healthy. Either way, he’ll find the end zone plenty.

Receiving Yards

1. Miles Austin - 1,300
2. Hakeem Nicks - 1,200
3. Santana Moss - 1,050

The preseason hamstring issues worry me, but assuming the downtime is simply precautionary Austin has the clear inside track here. Even without Tony Romo for most of the season, Austin gained over 1,000 yards. If you extrapolate from the games Austin played with Romo he would have notched a cool 1,400.

Nicks broke out for the Giants last year and is trending in the right direction. He’ll benefit from the steady hand of Eli Manning. In Eli’s six seasons as the Giants’ full-time starter, Big Blue has had at least one 1,000-yard receiver four times (and Plax gained 998 yards one of those other two seasons).

I would dock Santana Moss for the Redskins’ quarterback issues except that the mighty mite from Miami seems to produce no matter who’s barking orders in the Washington backfield. Whether it’s Mark Brunell, Jason Campbell, Todd Collins, or Rex Grossman delivering the wobblers, Moss stuffs the stat sheet.

DeSean Jackson, the division’s premier playmaker, misses the cut due to Philadelphia’s uncertain situation at the other wideout position. Jackson could use a healthy Jeremy Maclin or Steve Smith to help give him mismatches in the secondary. Others to watch here: Mario Manningham, Jason Witten, and the aforementioned Maclin.

Receiving Touchdowns

1. Hakeem Nicks - 12
2. Miles Austin - 10
3. Mario Manningham - 10

Eli is going to keep throwing touchdown passes, and someone is going to have catch ‘em. I’ll admit, predicting two Giants players with 10-plus TD receptions is a bit of a stretch. But I’m flexible, and since receiving touchdowns tend to fluctuate so dramatically from year-to-year I might as well shoot for something extraordinary. Nicks and Manningham are both young playmakers trending upwards, and they’ve at least got the skills to make this prediction a reality.

Austin should continue his stellar play with Tony Romo back under center. Others in contention here include Jason Witten and Jeremy Maclin.

Interceptions

1. Asante Samuel - 9
2. DeAngelo Hall - 6
3. Corey Webster - 5

Now that Samuel has pretty much locked down the second starting corner spot, expect the Eagle veteran to improve upon last year’s stellar INT total. Samuel is already one of the league’s best route jumpers, a trait made all the more useful by Nnamdi Asomugha’s shutdown coverage on the opposite side of the field.

With Prince Amukamara licking his wounds and Terrell Thomas already done for the season, opponents figure to throw on the Giants...a lot. I imagine they’ll succeed a good bit of the time, but the unintended consequence of more attempts is more picks. Webster should be the beneficiary.

Sacks

1. DeMarcus Ware - 15.5
2. Justin Tuck - 12
3. Trent Cole - 11.5

These last few years the title of best defensive player in the NFC East has seemed like DeMarcus Ware’s birthright. Maybe Nnamdi Asomugha will give him a run for the crown this year, but either way Ware is a safe bet to be the division’s most prolific sackmaster.

That’s no disrespect to the other fine pass rushers in the division. Between Tuck, Cole, Jason Babin, Osi Umenyiora, Brian Orakpo and the emerging Jason Pierre-Paul, the NFC East boasts a wet-bed's worth of QB nightmares. Trent Cole should benefit from the attention given to newcomers Cullen Jenkins and Jason Babin as well as the implementation of Jim Washburn’s pass-rush-friendly wide nine defense.

Tackles

1. London Fletcher - 125
2. Bradie James - 120
3. Rocky McIntosh - 115

Long as I can remember the Redskins have had a glut of big-time tacklers.

Turns out my memory is pretty good.

Since 2002 the Redskins have had two players reach 90 or more tackles every season except one (2008). By comparison, the Eagles had no such players in 2010. After resigning Rocky McIntosh to play alongside the indestructible London Fletcher, the Redskins should have two prolific tacklers once more in 2011. With a defense that figures to be on the field most of the year, Skins linebackers should get plenty of chances to hit somebody.