SEC Football: Week 1 Previews and Predictions

Let me start by apologizing for the gap in between this article and my last article. This summer, both of my parents lost their battle with cancer. As a result, I had to take time off from work and writing. However, I am excited to be back and will start daily writings and airing shows again this week.

I got into sports because of my Father's passion for the SEC. It is this time of year that draws us together as family. Regardless if we are arguing over rival teams or cheering for the same team, this is what makes SEC football the premier sport in America.

I will start this week with a small preview and prediction for each SEC team. I do not remember going into any season with so many question marks. What the national media thinks is going to happen and what actually happens this season could be very different.  

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Kent State Golden Flashes

The Crimson Tide, under Coach Nick Saban,  have not been hesitant to schedule tough out-of-conference games against big name schools such as Clemson, Virginia Tech, Penn State and Michigan. However, when they do schedule what are referred to as “cupcake” games, they do it to the max. While scheduling Kent State might not look as bad as scheduling a first-year FCS school like Georgia State, Georgia State did at least finish with a winning record.  The Golden Flashes have not had a winning season since 2001.

There is one thing that Kent State can look forward to as the season progresses. The Golden Flashes have nine starters returning on offense including quarterback Spencer Keith who threw for over 2,200 yards last season. However, the problem is that these are MAC-level players and not SEC-level players. In fact, I am inclined to believe that the All-MAC first team offense could not move the ball consistently against this 2011 Tide defense. As a result, it will be a long night for Kent State.

The Tide, on the other hand, will have a good opportunity to play multiple quarterbacks as they prepare for their highly anticipated road game against Penn State in Week 2. Look for at least three quarterbacks to get playing time during Week 1. A starter has yet to be named and I am not sure that this game will help settle the matter.

Prediction: Alabama 51 Kent State 7

Stat of the game: Alabama defensive line records four sacks

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Missouri State Bears

Last season, Missouri State posted three wins over Top 25 opponents and also won a pair of games over eventual Division I playoff teams.  While this was an outstanding accomplishment, it was against FCS teams. The Bearcats will be led by Chris Douglas who rushed for over 1,000 yards last season and wide receiver Jermaine Saffold who caught 53 passes for 869 yards. Missouri State is looking to improve on their 5-6 record from last season but they can begin working on that in Week 2.

Over the past two seasons, the Arkansas Razorbacks have started the season 2-0 while defeating their opponents by a combined score of 92-10. One of those wins was a 48-10 victory against these same Bears in 2009. This game will not be any better for the outmatched Bears. Look for new starting quarterback, Tyler Wilson, to be on the sidelines cheering on his backup to start the third quarter.

Prediction: Arkansas 52 Missouri State 3

Stat of the game: Tyler Wilson 17-21( 300-plus yards) and three touchdowns. 

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Memphis Tigers

Both the Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Memphis Tigers played college football last season. However, that is where the similarities end. The Bulldogs are a team on the rise under the guidance of Dan Mullen. The Tigers, on the other hand, finished last season 1-11 and have a coach who might have one foot out the door.

Memphis head football coach, Larry Porter, has made some changes in the offseason to try to get Memphis back on the right track. Most notably, they are changing from a pro-style offense to a spread offense. Coach Porter believes that this offense is best suited for his current personal.

It does appear that this offense will help improve the Tigers' chances of competing long term, but it will not help in Week 1. Last season the Bulldogs dismantled Memphis 49-7 and this season it will not get much easier for the Tigers. MSU has enough talent on their roster to compete with any team in the SEC. It is yet to be seen if this is the year that the Bulldogs become serious competitors for the SEC championship. However, I am certain they will start the season 1-0.

Prediction: MSU 42 UM 10

Stat of the game: Chris Relf will have three total touchdowns

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Elon Phoenix

I live just outside of Nashville and to be honest, until this season, you might see more University of Phoenix gear than Vanderbilt gear. However, first-year head coach, James Franklin is doing an amazing job rallying the fan base.

The excitement is leading to the Commodores putting together a legitimate SEC recruiting class. In my opinion, he will use this game to keep the buzz going. Perhaps the most important part of this game is helping quarterback Larry Smith gain some confidence. Smith is a talented player but has lacked the needed confidence to reach his full potential. Under the tutelage of coach Franklin I expect a big season from Smith. 

Prediction: Vandy 38 Elom 3

Stat of the Game: Smith has over 300 yards passing

South Carolina Gamecocks vs. East Carolina Pirates

On paper, they should enforce the mercy rule before the start of this game. South Carolina is loaded with offensive playmakers. They might have the top QB/RB/WR combo in the nation. The Pirates, on the other hand, had the worst statistical defense in the nation last season.

The defense was so horrific that they gave up 76 points to Navy. To make matters worse, East Carolina will be without their best defensive player Emanuel Davis. The two-time All-CUSA selection was suspended after being charged with being intoxicated and disruptive in public and resisting a public officer.

There are, however, two things that might make this game less bloody. First, the Gamecocks have a tendency to play down to their competition in these types of games. Not enough that the game is in doubt, but closer than it should be. A perfect example was Furman last season.

Secondly, I am intrigued by the Pirates offense. Make no mistake about it, their offense can score points. Second-year head coach, Ruffin McNeal, was hired from Texas Tech where he served as a defensive coordinator for Mike Leach. As a result, he brought Leach’s highly effective offensive system with him. 

Their offensive stats in 2010 were astounding. Pirates quarterback, Dominique Davis, passed for 3,967 yards and 46 total touchdowns. Davis is returning this season and should put up even better numbers. I do think that the Pirates will keep it close early. However, the Gamecocks will put them away and play in one of the nation’s premier showcase games the following week against UGA.

Final Score: USC 41 ECU 24

Stat of the game: Lattimore has 175 yards rushing

Florida Gators vs. Florida Atlantic Owls

What better way to usher in the Will Muschamp era than against Florida Atlantic? Despite the Gators only having 10 starters returning this season, this game will be over by halftime. Running back Alfred Morris, who had 1,300 yards rushing last season, will lead the Owls' offensive attack.  Do not be surprised if Morris scores early in the first quarter. However, the Gators offense will be too explosive for Florida Atlantic and they will have to abandon the running game early.

Prediction: UF 38 FA 10

Stat of the Game: Brantley throws three touchdown passes

Auburn Tigers vs. Utah State Aggies

Let me start by saying that I think Auburn is going to have a better season than most expect. However, they must come ready to play in Week 1 or the season could start off disastrous. This is a game that Auburn should win and probably will win. However, as the University of Oklahoma found out, it might not be as easy as they think. The Sooners barely escaped with a 31-24 victory last season in their season opener. They also scored 42 points in one half last season against Nevada who finished the season 13-1.

Utah State was very inconsistent last season but they do have most of their team returning. In fact, they recently had 14 players who received all-Western Athletic Conference honors from Phil Steele's 2011 College Football Preview. This team has dangerous weapons on both sides of the ball but they will only go as far as running back Robert Turbin can carry them.

In 2009, Turbin scored 13 touchdowns and was only six yards short of 1,300 yards rushing. Prior to the start of the 2010 season Turbin suffered a knee injury that would result in him missing the entire season. However, Turbin was so dynamic his sophomore year that he has been named to the Doak Walker Award preseason watch list despite missing the entire 2010 season.

Last season this was Cam Newton’s team. While Newton was tremendously efficient passing the football, this team was best when they were running the ball. Newton might be gone but this team is loaded at the running back position. This depth will show in the second half. Auburn is young and inexperienced at many positions as the season is getting ready to start.

However, they are loaded with talent and will only improve as the season goes forward. I expect that same pattern to be shown in this game. Look for Auburn to struggle early but pull away in the second half. Utah State will be within a touchdown at the half but Auburn will pull away in the second on their way to their 16^th straight victory

Prediction: Auburn 45 Utah State 24

Stat of the night: Auburn will have over 350 yards rushing

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Montana Grizzlies

In my opinion, the Tennessee Volunteers and the Georgia Bulldogs are the teams I have the most questions for in the SEC. The Vols finished last season strong after a disastrous start. This has led to great optimism among many Tennessee faithful. However, I am still not sure if Dooley is the man that can revitalize this program and if Tyler Bray is the best option at quarterback. I have a sneaking suspicion that we still will not know the answer to these questions after this game.

Of all the Vegas lines released for this week’s games, their line for this game was the most surprising line at only +18.5. It is not that I am unknowledgeable of the Grizzlies; my mother is a professor there. Montana has some decent players. However, there is a greater chance of Lane Kiffin joining the priesthood before the USC game Saturday than the Grizzlies beating the Vols. Look for the Vols to air it out early and often and to sit the starters in the second half.

Prediction: UT 52 UM 17

Stat of the game: Bray with four passing touchdowns

Ole Miss Rebels vs. BYU Cougars

No matter what happens in this week’s Ole Miss home opener, it will not be as bad as last season’s defeat to Jacksonville State. The talk of the offseason has been the supposed hot-seat of University of Georgia coach Mark Richt.

However, in my opinion, the hottest seat in the SEC is that of Houston Nutt’s. I fully expect that seat to get even hotter after this week’s game. The now independent Cougars return all but one starter on offense and should be dynamic this season. BYU will be led by Jake Heaps who was the nation’s No. 1 quarterback coming out of high school. Heaps started 10 games last season and, despite a slow start, caught fire at the end of the season. The Cougars won five of their last six games. Moreover, in his final five starts of the season he had 1,259 yards passing and 13 touchdowns to only two interceptions.

While I am a big fan of Ole Miss defensive coordinator, Tyrone Nix, he will be in a tough position on Saturday. BYU will control this game from the very beginning. Fortunately, the Rebels have Southern Illinois coming in the following week.

Prediction: BYU 28 Ole Miss 17

Stat of the game: Heaps 300-plus yards passing and three touchdowns

Oregon Ducks vs. LSU Tigers

I am going to start this preview with a fact that might not sit well with many SEC fans. The truth is that Oregon is the better team on paper before the suspensions. However, they were also the better team on paper last season before the BCS national championship game. In fact, if they had played the Tigers during the regular season, I believe that Oregon would have beaten Auburn. Unfortunately, for the Ducks, that is not how the national championship is decided.

Instead of playing directly after the conclusion of the regular season, teams will wait for a solid month before the next game and sometimes longer. This is why certain coaches have great bowl records while others struggle. Some coaches are better at week to week preparation, while others coaches do well with extra time. Chip Kelly, thus far, has proven to be a week-to-week coach but not very good when he gives the other team extra time.

There are two games a season that a team will have more than two weeks to prepare for. Those games are the first game of the season and the bowl game if they qualify .Coach Kelly has an amazing 22-4 career coaching record. However, three of those four losses have come in home openers and bowl games.In his first season, the Ducks were defeated in the opener to Boise State and in their bowl game to Ohio State. They did defeat New Mexico in the home opener last season, however, the Lobos finished the year 1-11. Then, they were once again defeated in their bowl game by the Auburn Tigers.

Les Miles, on the other hand, is 11-1 in home openers and bowl games since arriving at LSU. People might differ on how great of a coach Les Miles is. However, no one can argue that his creativity peaks when he is allotted extra time. As a result, he will have a plan in place to slow down the potent Ducks offense and also have his team efficient on offense.

I know this preview does not talk much about the LSU suspensions. However, you must understand that the success of the Bayou Bengals was not going to be because of the production of Jordan Jefferson. LSU will field a good team this season and win this ball game because of their defense and rushing attack.

Prediction: LSU 31 Oregon 28

Stat of the game: The LSU defense will force four turnovers

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Boise State Broncos

Who would have believed just a few seasons ago that Boise State would be headed back to the state of Georgia to face the mighty Bulldogs, and yet be favored? However, that is the case as the Broncos are set to take on Mark Richt and the University of Georgia this Saturday. The media has fallen in love with Boise State and only reports on the Bulldogs if it is a negative story. However, after this weekend, things will take a dramatic shift. The Boise train is about to be derailed and the Bulldog hype train will take its place.

People who are predicting a Broncos win are judging things off of last season. However, there have been some major changes that people are ignoring. Most notably, UGA will have over a 150 extra pounds on each side of the ball this season in comparison to last season. This is the result of a new strength and condition program that has yielded unbelievable results.

Boise State, on the other hand, had a coaching change that is not working well so far. The Broncos former offensive coordinator, Bryan Harsin, has departed to the University of Texas and so far the results have not been good. In the spring game, Kellen Moore completed 5-of-14 passes for 50 yards in three series and it has not gotten much better during the fall. The offense has been atrocious and has rarely scored.

Because both teams have lost their top two wide receivers, look for this game to start slow. Outside of some type of trickery, there shouldn’t be many early points. However, UGA will wear them down with their newly installed up-tempo style in the second half. In the end, this game will come down to field position and special teams which will be a huge advantage for UGA.

Final Score: UGA 24 BSU 17

Stat of the game: Kwame Geathers has two sacks

Final Take

The SEC will get off to a great start this week with an 11-1 record. Moreover, the two prime-time games will reiterate what we already know—The SEC is the top conference in America. This season should be the most exciting season in some time. There are no less than five legitimate BCS championship threats inside the SEC this season.

Lastly, thank you for all of the messages I received during the last two months. Please visit our website www.drsec.info as big announcements are on the way. I will take back to the air this week and you can follow me on twitter as well. We will begin tweeting all the top stories and rumors this week.

****Think you can beat Dr. SEC? Join his free yahoo college pick'em. The winner takes home a $100 prepaid visa card. 

group id: 17578

password: football