2011 College Football: Week 1 Predictions
College football has officially arrived. After weeks of analysis and predictions, teams will finally settle the matter on the field.
Each week, I will predict the outcome of 25 games plus three bonus games each week for the top games in Divsion I FBS.
My family plays this game at home. There will be a weekly winner and a winner at the end of the season for the person with the highest score.
Let me warn you in advance that a few of the chosen games will be blowout city.
Without further adieu, let the picks begin...
Tulsa at 1 Oklahoma
1 of 29The last time these two teams met, Oklahoma won in a rout as they demolished Tulsa 45-0 two years ago in Norman.
Tulsa has a potent offense but will be out of their league against the Sooners.
The Golden Hurricane's chances went from slim to none after senior wide receiver Damaris Johnson's suspension.
Fifth-year linebacker Travis Lewis won't be missed too much in this one.
The Sooners need to replace DeMarco Murray and this game will see which back can step up and fill Murray's shoes.
Jones threw for six touchdowns against Tulsa in 2009. Look for similar stats in the 2011 season opener.
Pick: Oklahoma
Score: 52-13
3 Oregon vs. 4 LSU (in Arlington)
2 of 29The game of the week in Week 1 of college football has become even more intriguing after a series of events in the past couple of months.
Oregon is in the mix of a recruiting scandal involving Willie Lyles.
Junior cornerback Cliff Harris—perhaps the best cornerback in college football—will be suspended for the game after caught speeding with a suspended license.
Former 5-star running back Lache Seastrunk transfers amidst the school's recruiting scandal.
LSU offensive coordinator resigns as offensive coordinator but will remain quarterbacks coach after being diagnosed with Parkinson's disease.
A couple of weeks later, senior quarterback Jordan Jefferson and others were involved in a bar fight which has led to his indefinite suspension.
Junior wide receiver Russell Shepard has been suspended after violating an NCAA rule.
Despite the off-field issues—the game should still be a dandy between two Top 5 programs.
Oregon returns solid play at quarterback and running back but must find new targets at receiver following the departure of Jeff Maehl.
Given his poor numbers and performances—Jefferson's suspension may not be the worst thing for the Bengal Tigers.
The question is whether redshirt senior Jarrett Lee can avoid his tendencies of throwing "pick six."
Oregon can win if it's a high scoring game. LSU doesn't have the offensive firepower to light up scoreboards each week.
LSU will win if they can keep it a low scoring affair.
This game can go either way but I predict LSU wins thanks to the Les Miles magic.
Pick: LSU
Score: 23-21
5 Boise State vs. 19 Georgia (in Atlanta)
3 of 29Mark it down. This is the biggest game for Georgia this year—by far. Georgia has headed into a nosedive the past two seasons after posting an 8-5 mark in 2009 and 6-7 in 2010.
Mark Richt is playing for his job in 2011 and a win against a Top 5 team will give the team a huge boost.
Even though Boise State is a non-conference foe—this game serves as a measuring stick as to whether Georgia can reattain their past status as one of the top teams in the SEC.
Though the game's listed as a neutral site—Atlanta is far from neutral for Georgia.
Boise State has a ton of experience with senior quarterback Kellen Moore and senior running backs Doug Martin and D.J. Harper but who will replace Austin Pettis and Titus Young at wide receiver?
Can Boise State's new receiving corps gain separation from Georgia's defense?
Georgia has a keeper in redshirt sophomore Aaron Murray. Outside of junior tight end Orson Charles, the Bulldogs need their receiving corps to step up.
True freshman Isaiah Crowell will be a big factor in Georgia's success. If he has a Marcus Lattimore type of freshman debut, Georgia could be the top team in the East.
If he fails? Georgia could be a one dimensional, mediocre team.
Defensively, the Bulldogs should be better acclimated to defensive coordinator Todd Grantham's 3-4 scheme.
If the Bulldogs lose this game, Georgia could lose to South Carolina. A Week 4 visit to Oxford, Miss. to play Ole Miss—think loss at Colorado in 2010—could have the team starting out 1-3 and Richt receiving a pink slip.
With a win, Georgia plays with renewed confidence and could start out the year 4-0.
I predicted a Boise State upset six years ago when the teams played "Between the Hedges", and that one didn't turn out so well. Even though the 2011 Bulldogs aren't of the same caliber of the 2005 Bulldogs, Georgia will do enough for the win.
Pick: Georgia
Score: 31-21
SMU at 9 Texas A&M
4 of 29This Sunday showdown features a team that wants out of the Big 12 (Texas A&M) and a team that wants to be in the Big 12 (SMU).
Junior quarterback Kyle Padron is another in a long line of quarterbacks that have flourished in head coach June Jones' system.
Texas A&M has the package offensively and defensively (though losing Von Miller hurts) and should be the cream of the crop—along with Oklahoma—in a reduced Big 12.
Both teams have stellar offenses but the biggest difference between the Mustangs and Aggies—defense.
Pick: Texas A&M
Score: 41-24
12 South Carolina vs. East Carolina (in Charlotte)
5 of 29This neutral site game (in Charlotte) is somewhat underrated on this weekend's list of best games.
Thanks to junior college transfer quarterback Dominique Davis, East Carolina scored in bunches last year, but struggled with a defense that was the team's Achilles' heel one year ago.
The Gamecocks finally got over the hump in winning the East, and will look to go a step further by winning the SEC.
The Gamecocks boast one of the nation's best running backs in sophomore Marcus Lattimore. He gave South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier his best running back threat since Fred Taylor in days at Florida.
Alshon Jeffery isn't the only biggest receiver on the field. The Pirates have their own big receiving threat in Lance Lewis—who tallied 1116 yards and 14 touchdowns on 89 receptions.
This game will go down to the wire, but barring any bone-headed mistakes by redshirt senior quarterback Stephen Garcia, the Gamecocks should get out of dodge with a win.
Pick: South Carolina
Score: 38-31
15 TCU at Baylor
6 of 29This Friday night showdown marks the beginning of the Casey Pachall era in Forth Worth.
Despite Dalton's loss, the Horned Frogs still feature plenty of offensive firepower—led by junior running back Ed Wesley who rushed for 1078 yards and 11 touchdowns a year ago.
Baylor has one of the most exciting players in the country in redshirt junior quarterback Robert Griffin—who is one of a few true dual threat quarterbacks in the country.
This game is a must watch for college football fans as TCU's defense tries to slow down the Griffin-led offense of Baylor.
This game will be close, but TCU will avoid the upset and edge a rising Baylor team.
Pick: TCU
Score: 21-17
South Florida at 18 Notre Dame
7 of 29Notre Dame begins year two of the Brian Kelly era with a matchup against Big East title contender South Florida.
The key to this game is redshirt junior quarterback B.J. Daniels progression after two years of starting for the Bulls.
Also, it will be interesting to see how transfers Dontae Aycock (Auburn) and Darrell Scott (Colorado) will be able to impact South Florida's offense.
Notre Dame decided to go with redshirt junior quarterback Dayne Crist over sophomore Tommy Rees.
The Fighting Irish will need redshirt sophomore running back Cierre Wood to become the featured back in Kelly's spread offense.
At the end of the day, South Florida will be able to give Notre Dame all they can handle, but Notre Dame will pull out a well-earned win.
Pick: Notre Dame
Score: 34-24
20 Mississippi State at Memphis
8 of 29A game between Mississippi State and Memphis would have been interesting—in 2006.
Second year head coach Larry Porter still has a ton of work ahead to build this program up to a respectable level.
This is another game that shouldn't be on the list but is because of worse games on the schedule.
Pick: Mississippi State
Score: 45-7
Miami-Ohio at 21 Missouri
9 of 29Both Miami-Ohio and Missouri have questions that need to be answered in 2011.
Can sophomore quarterback James Franklin fill the void left by Blaine Gabbert at quarterback?
Can Miami-Ohio prove 2010 was no fluke and repeat similar success in 2011?
Though Miami-Ohio should be okay in 2011, Missouri is still far too dangerous of a team to handle on the road.
Frankin will make Tiger fans forget about Gabbert—at least for one night.
Expect Franklin and the Tigers to maul the Redhawks.
Pick: Missouri
Score: 52-17
Florida Atlantic at 23 Florida
10 of 29Even if redshirt senior quarterback John Brantley had bad dreams about his performance going into 2010—they couldn't have been as bad as his nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions last year.
Last year's performance in the season opener against Miami-Ohio was an omen of bad things on the horizon.
For that reason alone, I would expect to see a different Florida team against Florida Atlantic.
This is one of those games that shouldn't be on the list but is because of weaker games on the schedule for Week 1.
The Gators will debut Charlie Weis' pro-style offense and Gator fans shouldn't be too disappointed with the results in this one.
Even though the Orange and Blue won't show their full hand in this one—expect to see Brantley and company move the ball at will against the overmatched Owls.
Pick: Florida
Score: 56-7
Rice at 24 Texas
11 of 29Rice made things interesting for a while when the two teams squared off in Houston last year.
I hate to say teams have no chance to win because everyone has a chance to win, but I'm more likely to live to see Haley's comet three times in my lifetime before the Owls pull off this upset.
If Rice had the 2008 team with Jarrett Dillard and Chase Clement, they would have made things interesting in the very least.
Texas should win convincingly.
Pick: Texas
Score: 49-14
BYU at Mississippi
12 of 29After enjoying a resurgence of sorts, Ole Miss fell flat on their faces in 2010.
The Rebels can take comfort in knowing running back Brandon Bolden is back for his final season.
We'll see if sophomore transfer quarterback Barry Brunetti can give the Rebels its best threat at quarterback since the days of Eli Manning.
BYU has a talented sophomore in Jake Heaps and a tough runner in redshirt senior J.J. DiLuigi on offense.
The question is how will BYU fare against the speed of the SEC.
If the past couple of games against a down Florida State squad is any indication, I'd say their chances aren't good.
Ole Miss was humbled by a shocking upset to FCS Jacksonville State in last year's season opener—but should be ready to face the Cougars this year.
It will be close but the Rebels should edge out BYU in a good game.
Pick: Mississippi
Score: 31-24
Marshall at West Virginia
13 of 29Dana Holgersen kicks off his head coaching career in a rivalry game against Marshall.
Fans were unexpectedly treated to a great Friday night game a year ago that witnessed a 24-21 in Huntington.
Things should be different this year in Morgantown as the Dana Holgorsen era officially begins.
Though West Virginia lost running back Noel Devine and wide receiver Jock Sanders, the Mountaineers have junior quarterback Geno Smith.
West Virginia is too talented from top to bottom to be upset by Marshall.
Pick: West Virginia
Score: 48-17
Miami at Maryland
14 of 29This Labor Day matchup received a devastating blow when allegations about Miami's players taking improper benefits from Nevin Shapiro and the suspensions that followed.
Losing senior quarterback Jacory Harris and senior wide receiver Travis Benjamin hurts the offense, but the defensive side of the ball is where the Canes could be the most vulnerable.
The question now is can Miami's short-handed defense slow down redshirt sophomore quarterback Danny O'Brien?
How will the Hurricanes handle an NCAA investigation looming overhead?
The prideful Hurricanes will play well, but the suspensions will cost them dearly in this matchup.
Pick: Maryland
Score: 27-17
Northwestern at Boston College
15 of 29Boston College is perhaps the most resilient team in college football but an injury to Montel Harris—who's carried the offensive load for the past three seasons--is a big blow for the Golden Eagle.
With Harris out, Boston College must identify other playmakers to give the offense a boost.
Boston College's defense plays well but redshirt senior quarterback Dan Persa will lead Northwestern to a season opening win.
Pick: Northwestern
Score: 17-7
UCLA at Houston
16 of 29Sixth year senior Case Keenum will be itching to get back on the field against the team in which his season abruptly ended.
UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel will be feeling the pressure to win this year and this game doesn't bode well for him.
Houston wins because they want to avenge last year's thrashing in Westwood and because of their always dangerous Air Raid offense.
Pick: Houston
Score: 59-20
Colorado at Hawaii
17 of 292011 might be a long season for Colorado and playing Hawaii on the road doesn't help.
Winner: Hawaii
Score: 51-30
Troy at Clemson
18 of 29Give Troy credit. They will take on anyone anywhere.
Like the South Carolina/East Carolina game this game is severely underrated.
The Trojans are known for hanging in there against the big boys, and this game shouldn't be any different.
Redshirt sophomore Corey Robinson threw for just under 4000 yards, 28 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Watch for him to cut the interception number in half this year.
Redshirt sophomore Tajh Boyd will take over the offense and will be surrounded by the likes of junior running back Andre Ellington.
Clemson wins but it won't be easy.
Pick: Clemson
Score: 30-28
Army at Northern Illinois
19 of 29Jerry Kill has departed but don't expect the Huskies to miss a beat—at least this year.
Army's triple option means the clock keeps ticking. A ticking clocks shortens the possessions for redshirt senior Chandler Harnish.
This should be somewhat of a low scoring game.
Pick: Northern Illinois
Score: 24-17
Fresno State at California
20 of 29Pat Hill is known for challenging his team with tough non-conference schedules but California is still reeling from a disappointing 5-7 season a year ago.
With that in mind I don't see California being any better than last year's showing which might spell the end for Jeff Tedford in Berkeley.
Pick: Fresno State
Score: 38-35 (OT)
Minnesota at USC
21 of 29Northern Illinois head coach Jerry Kill has a lot work to do to turn this program around.
He'll get a birds-eye view of USC hammering his squad. USC will show him how hard he needs to hit the recruiting trail.
Maybe Kill turns the program around in a few years. He can take a picture of this game and call it the bad and the ugly.
Pick: USC
Score: 55-17
Middle Tennessee State at Purdue
22 of 29Middle Tennessee State keeps things interesting for two and a half quarters but will ultimately fade down the stretch.
Pick: Purdue
Score: 27-10
Wake Forest at Syracuse
23 of 29It's hard to believe Wake Forest actually won 11 games and captured the ACC championship.
Fast forward five years and Wake Forest has once again fallen on hard times and look like the cellar dwellers of the ACC.
Syracuse has turned it around thanks to head coach Doug Marrone.
The players and fans are believing they can win again and this isn't good news for the Demon Deacons.
Pick: Syracuse
Score: 37-14
Western Michigan at Michigan
24 of 29First game with Brady Hoke at the helm in the Big House results in easy victory for the Wolverines.
Pick: Michigan
Score: 42-10
Louisiana Tech at Southern Miss
25 of 29Sonny Dykes is working to improve the Bulldogs but an unproven quarterback and shaky defense spells doom on the road.
Pick: Southern Miss
Score: 42-30
Bonus Games
26 of 29Bowling Green at Idaho
North Texas at Florida International
Colorado State at New Mexico
Bowling Green at Idaho
27 of 29Both teams would love to delete 2010 from their memories and start over. However I seriously doubt either team finishes .500 this year.
This will be a close game but—being at home—Idaho should prevail.
Pick: Idaho
Score: 19-18
North Texas at Florida International
28 of 29Dan McCarney is great hire for North Texas but needs time to build up the program.
In the meantime, they will take their lumps such as this blowout against the top team in the league.
Pick: Florida International
Score: 38-9
Colorado State at New Mexico
29 of 29Although Colorado State finished 3-9 last year, they still won more games than New Mexico has won the past two years (2).
Pick: Colorado State
Score: 38-17
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