Boise State Football: BCS Teams Broncos Must Play To Prove They Belong

There is constant speculation about which teams Boise State could or couldn't beat or how they would do if they were in a BCS conference. Boise has done quite well in the past five years against BCS teams, going 6-1 (if you count Utah from last year's bowl), and ESPN seems to reap the benefits of Boise State playing against BCS teams; the ratings skyrocket. 

The idea that these games be played at a neutral site is laughable, but that seems to be the only way the athletic directors of both participating schools can agree on a one-and-done. 

Last year it was a game in Washington, DC, against Virginia Tech; this year BSU travels to Atlanta to play the Bulldogs in the Georgia Dome. If the Broncos pull off a win, it will only add to their legitimacy as a national powerhouse; however, it probably still won't silence the doubters of the boys who call the The Blue their home.

So here is a hypothetical breakdown of the one team Boise State would need to play this year from each of the BCS conferences to prove they belong, the neutral site they would play at and the Broncos' chances of winning the game.   

ACC: Florida State

Boise State took down Virginia Tech last year, so naturally the next in line for Boise State to play in the ACC is Florida State. The Seminoles have been a powerhouse football team for a long time—you don't have a period of time called The Dynasty by being a pushover.

With 12 ACC championships in the past 20 years Florida State is the master of the ACC and this year is lining up to be no different. 

Neutral Site: EverBank Field in Jacksonville, Florida.

Breakdown: When No.5 Boise State rolls into Florida to take on the No.6 Seminoles, it will be a battle of defenses. Florida State was greatly improved on defense last year, with Brandon Jenkins leading the team as one of the best defensive ends in college football, helping FSU lead the nation in sacs with 48.

The loss of Ponder hurts the Noles, but E.J. Manuel is no slouch and should do fine behind center. There will be issues at the linebacker position, where FSU lost two outstanding starters. 

You will see Kellen Moore exploit the young defensive backs with short passes and he will catch FSU off guard with an occasional long pass to Geraldo Boldewijn with his 4.3 speed. Hidden in the backfield for BSU will be Doug Martin; however, Florida State will stifle the running game with its stout front four, only allowing for the occasional set up for play action. 

The Bronco defense is just as strong as the Seminoles', with Billy Winn and Shae Shea McClellin on the front line. With so much defense, special teams will come into play in this game and that is Boise State's Achilles heal.

Boise's special teams is going to be lacking with the loss of Brotzman and some coverage issues that allowed 12 separate returners to run back for over 30 yards last year. This will be their downfall.

Outcome: Florida State wins 20-17, but gains some respect on defense.

B1G: Ohio State

Boise State opens the 2012 season in East Lansing against Michigan State, a very respectable opponent, but not what many would consider the epitome of the new B1G conference. 

To gain the respect Boise State deserves, they have to take down an old and storied Big Ten program, which leaves Michigan and Ohio State. Ohio State would be a better pick than Michigan, given Michigan's recent decline.

Don't get me wrong, Michigan has the most conference championships, but Ohio State has been the Big Ten team to beat in recent history.  

Neutral Site: Wrigley Field; Chicago, IL. 

Breakdown: I hate to be another writer that beats the Ohio State scandal drum, but Boise State's calm, cool and collected coaches and quarterback will exploit the new players and changes that have come about from Jim Tressel and Terrelle Pryor's exit.

Since these types of games happen at the beginning of the season, this Ohio State team will have to face BSU without its five suspended players and with a co-defensive coordinator coaching in his first season ever as head coach. 

On the other side of the lines, BSU has one of the best coaches in college football. With the Buckeyes having a new QB, new coach and painful suspensions, Boise State will exploit the situation pretty handily.

Unfortunately, this will be fuel for B1G fans to claim that in a normal season they would have won. Don't worry though, BSU would beat Michigan this year too.

Outcome: Boise State wins, 27-13.

Big 12: Texas

There is no doubt Oklahoma is the best team in the Big 12 and, yes, I'm going to remind you that BSU has beaten Oklahoma. I will also concede BSU may not be able to beat Oklahoma this year. Even Texas A&M should be better than Texas this year, but Texas has now become the face of the Big 12. 

They are effectively keeping the Big 12 together; it is Texas money along with the Longhorn Network that will make sure everyone in the country knows that. If you want to make your impression in the Big 12, what better way than to take down the conference "owners"?

Neutral Site: Reliant Stadium; Houston, TX (Cowboy Stadium will be taken by Oregon/LSU)

Breakdown: Texas struggled last year and because of that there has been sweeping coaching staff changes at the school.

The Texas offensive coordinator comes from Boise State after studying under Chris Petersen. This will ultimately affect how Texas runs its offense. Harsin will not be able to implement his offense since Petersen will know every move. 

With seven starters returning from the No. 2 defense in the country, this will not sit well with the brand new Texas coaching staff and still undecided QB. However, this is Texas we are talking about; they will be good.

Just not good enough. 

The Texas defense has improved from last year, but not enough. Also, the Texas offense has not had enough time to adjust to Harsin or for Harsin to wipe BSU out of his playbook. There will be no need for trick plays against a Big 12 team this year, as Boise State will be able to go toe-to-toe with Texas and win. 

Outcome: Boise State wins 24-14 on the Longhorn Network.

Big East: West Virginia

The Mountaineers are one of the best teams in the Big East this year, though Central Florida may have some claim to that as well. Unfortunately, unless we are talking about basketball, being the best in the Big East means you join the company of last year's champion, the 8-5 UConn Huskies. 

West Virginia has been a premiere team in the past and will have made great strides over the past year, but do they have what it takes to take down the Broncos?

Neutral Site: Heinz Field; Pittsburgh, PA (though I'm tempted to say WVU should travel west and play on a neutral site, like SAF at Mile High in Denver).

Breakdown: I think West Virginia will surprise Boise initially with a decent lead as Geno Smith will come out playing very well. However, the Broncos will calm down and count on the multiple tools they have on offense and an extremely stout defense to bring them back into the game. 

The Mountaineer defense is average, but will keep them close. Quite frankly, the game rests on Geno Smith's performance and the Mountaineer receiving crew. But Boise is a more complete package on offense and Kellen Moore will be lights-out against a very iffy WVU secondary. Doug Martin will be able to break off some big runs as well. 

I think WVU will prepare very hard; this game will come down to one possession. Kellen Moore's two-minute drill is one of the best in college football and he will at least get them into field-goal position for the win.

Outcome: Boise State wins, 27-24.

Pac-12: Stanford

I'm choosing Stanford for one reason only: I want to see Kellen Moore against Andrew Luck in what would be the best QB battle of the year.

Even though Southern California has been the powerhouse of the former Pac-10 in recent years, this year it comes down to Oregon and Stanford. USC may win the Pac-12, but it is a moot point because after the first week of December they will return to obscurity until next year—while the rest of college football moves on to the bowl season.

Boise State has beaten Oregon twice. Once in 2008 and once in 2009 (when Oregon won the Pac-10), and there was no respect gained by Boise after either game. There is no doubt Oregon is the best in the Pac-12, but who can resist this quarterback matchup?

Neutral Site: Candlestick Park; San Fransisco, CA

Breakdown: Both Kellen Moore and Andrew Luck will be ready for this game. As two of the smartest quarterbacks in college football, there is no doubt in my mind the level of preparedness will be off the charts. Therefore, the teams will rely on the other players to step up. 

On offense, the teams are surprisingly similar. Both stellar QB's are backed up by very hard-nosed running backs. Boise State's Doug Martin has the edge in the stat book, but Stanford's Stephan Taylor is very capable of producing.

The offensive line is where Boise State shines in comparison to Stanford. The Cardinal lost three players on one of the best O-lines in the country this year, while Boise State comes back with a line that could possibly be the best in the country. 

On defense, Stanford lost their defensive coordinator and a lot of good players. With fresh replacements and a new coordinator, Stanford will struggle against the pass. The Broncos need to focus solely on disrupting Luck. Having to focus on one thing will allow the defense to effectively squash the pass, even at the cost of a few big runs being broken off. 

Finally, as with other teams, it's hard to judge how this new coach will react when playing against good teams. Chris Petersen will have no trouble in preparing the Broncos. Though Stanford has the edge at quarterback (if only a slight one), Boise State has more talent and experience in just about every other position on the field.

Outcome: Boise State wins, 34-21.

SEC: Alabama

When I was originally writing this article, I picked Louisiana State University as the team Boise State should face; I thought they would be the big story out of the SEC this year. But in light of the recent events at LSU, I have switched my choice to the perennial SEC powerhouse Alabama for a couple of reasons. 

First, due to the LSU player suspensions, I believe Boise State would win the game, but not get credit because it would be a depleted LSU team. And second, an Alabama-Boise State matchup would be one of the greatest coaching battles of the year.

It might as well be called the Saban vs. Petersen Bowl (sponsored by something ridiculous like Claritin or something).

Neutral Site: Louisiana Superdome; New Orleans, LA.

Breakdown: Alabama is crazy good. They lost Mark Ingram, but replaced him with Trent Richardson. The only concern Alabama may have is replacing Julio Jones; however, this is Alabama we're talking about, so it shouldn't be a problem. 

Boise State must be perfect in every aspect of the game to win this. Alabama isn't suffering from new-coach syndrome and there is a reason why they are No.2 in the nation. Though I believe Boise will bring its best game possible, with all cylinders firing, Alabama will still win this one. They will, however, walk away with a little more respect for the boys in blue. 

Boise will be outmatched physically at 75 percent of the positions on the field, and though Kellen Moore will have laser-like precision, his line will inevitably collapse on occasion and his receivers will be over-matched. 

Sorry, Bronco fans, I love The Blue, but I can't objectively say Boise State will beat Alabama this year.

Every other SEC team? Probably.

A BSU with Young and Pettis still playing? Maybe.

I do hope, however, that we see this game as the BCS National Championship Game and I am proved wrong.  

Outcome: Alabama wins, 31-17.

For Good Measure: Notre Dame

For college football fans, Notre Dame seems to always be a litmus test for opposing teams—even when Notre Dame is decidedly bad. The No.16 Fighting Irish seem to be on the cusp of a recovery this year, though they have been pretty dismal since Lou Holtz left.

In spite of that fact, it is a must to play Notre Dame to gain recognition on the national stage. So let's see the breakdown of how this game plays out.  

Neutral Site: For this game, I will keep it at Notre Dame Stadium for the history and pageantry.

Breakdown: The one glaring problem Notre Dame has is its defense, specifically its secondary. This glaring problem turns into a full-blown nightmare when facing a quarterback/running back combo like Kellen Moore and Doug Martin.

Though the Notre Dame offense is just as capable as the Broncos' at scoring points, once again the BSU defense will hold them more often than not. The fact that Notre Dame is severely lacking in defense against one of the best offenses in the country will lead to a high-scoring, but inevitably ugly, game for the Fighting Irish.

As the years progress I have no doubt that Brian Kelly will return this team to the spotlight, but it won't be this year.

Outcome: Boise State wins, 41-24.