2011 Big East Football Simulation, Predictions and Preview

The "Big Least" took a step toward football relevancy by accepting TCU into the conference commencing in 2012. Although some may question why a school in Fort Worth is associated with the eastern seaboard, the league is in desperate need of an adrenaline shot after three-straight embarrassing BCS showings.

West Virginia heads into the season as the favorite with new coach Dana Holgorsen at the helm. Holgorsen was the mastermind behind Oklahoma State's offensive onslaught in 2010 and previously worked his magic with Houston and Texas Tech. Holgorsen inherits weapons in quarterback Geno Smith and receiver Tavon Austin on offense, while defensive coordinator Jeff Casteel brings back most of the integral parts from a defense that ranked third in the nation in points per game (13.5). Holgorsen will see what his Mountaineers are made of when LSU visits Morgantown on September 24.

Holgorsen isn't the only newcomer looking to make noise in the conference. Todd Graham seeks to take Pittsburgh to the next level after the disappointing era of Dave Wannstedt. Graham is noted for his offensive prowess, but the Pitt D, highlighted by LB Brandon Lindsey, is what will push the Panthers to the top of the league.

Other teams to watch out for in the Big East this season are South Florida, which will need a better effort out of B.J. Daniels, and Louisville, which made strides in Charlie Strong's first season.

Using our college football simulation engine, WhatIfSports.com simulated thousands of college football games to create this Big East Preview. Team ratings, player ratings and depth charts are accurate as of August 19th. What you see in the WIS-Big East Predictions table is the most likely outcome based on the computer simulations. The team-by-team schedules use Absolute Records, which you can learn more about below. Those same game-by-game simulations also generate average points per game for both teams.

WIS-Big East Predictions
Team	W	L	Overall Record
West Virginia	5	2	9-3
Pittsburgh	5	2	9-3
Cincinnati	4	3	7-5
South Florida	3	4	7-5
Syracuse	3	4	7-5
Connecticut	3	4	7-5
Louisville	3	4	6-6
Rutgers	1	6	4-8

For this analysis, thousands of college football games are simulated, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our final predicted record. As can be noted, sometimes a team is "favored" (wins more than 50% of the time) in a different number of our games than the expected record shows. We list this record as the Absolute Record. The assumption of the Absolute Record is that the more likely scenario always happens. Since we know that it does not, our expected record (in the table above) is far more accurate. Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

West Virginia

From an administrative standpoint, the defense will be far more stable. Jeff Casteel has been the coordinator for almost a decade, perennially frustrating opposing offenses with his unique 3-3-5 stack alignment. The personnel, however, is in a state of flux, losing seven talented starters, most of whom finished their Mountaineer careers as all-stars. The D will still be ornery and quick to the ball, led by DE Bruce Irvin, DT Julian Miller, and CB Keith Tandy, but matching last year's pristine results is improbable.

- CFN, Scout.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 West Virginia Mountaineers
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	Marshall Thundering Herd	95	37-10
2	Norfolk State Spartans	95	59-7
3	@Maryland Terrapins	60	27-23
4	LSU Tigers	43	25-27
5	Bowling Green Falcons	95	39-9
6	Connecticut Huskies	78	28-19
8	@Syracuse Orange	78	28-18
9	@Rutgers Scarlet Knights	92	34-15
10	Louisville Cardinals	86	29-16
11	@Cincinnati Bearcats	73	33-25
13	Pittsburgh Panthers	53	28-26
14	@South Florida Bulls	79	30-19

Pittsburgh

At face value, Todd Graham looks to be an awkward marriage with Pitt, the school that brought you Mike Ditka, Hugh Green and Bill Fralic, to name just a few. He's definitely a 21st-century coach, inventive and attacking on both sides of the ball. However, he also operates with a no-nonsense work ethic that fans and recruits in this area of the country will respect and appreciate. For him, this is a destination job after earning his stripes in Conference USA, and he's determined to be the guy that gets the Panthers to a new level of recognition.

- CFN, Scout.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Pittsburgh Panthers
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	Buffalo Bulls	95	37-13
2	Maine Black Bears	95	57-7
3	@Iowa Hawkeyes	65	28-22
4	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	55	30-28
5	South Florida Bulls	75	30-23
6	@Rutgers Scarlet Knights	86	34-19
7	Utah Utes	50	29-30
9	Connecticut Huskies	79	31-21
10	Cincinnati Bearcats	71	34-29
11	@Louisville Cardinals	81	32-19
13	@West Virginia Mountaineers	47	26-28
14	Syracuse Orange	69	29-23

Cincinnati

J. Ameer Rasheed of BearCatInsider.com is our Cincinnati Bearcats insider:

After back-to-back Big East titles, Cincinnati stumbled to a 4-8 record and finished 2-5 in the conference. Despite having one of the best offenses in the conference, a young defense struggled to make key plays. The Bearcats return all 11 starters on that defense that will improve. Offensively, most of the key components return. Keeping Collaros upright needs to be a priority as Cincinnati was next to last in sacks, yielding 33 last season.

With an improved defense, the Bearcats will rebound in 2011.

For more from J. Ameer Rasheed and the Bearcats, check out BearCatInsider.com.

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Cincinnati Bearcats
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	Austin Peay Governors	95	54-6
2	@Tennessee Volunteers	50	27-28
3	Akron Zips	95	38-13
4	North Carolina State Wolfpack	50	30-29
5	@Miami (OH) RedHawks	78	32-22
7	Louisville Cardinals	61	30-24
8	@South Florida Bulls	57	29-27
10	@Pittsburgh Panthers	29	29-34
11	West Virginia Mountaineers	27	25-33
12	@Rutgers Scarlet Knights	76	32-21
13	@Syracuse Orange	51	29-28
14	Connecticut Huskies	61	29-26

South Florida

Larry Weisbaum of USFNation.com is our South Florida Bulls insider:

The Bulls aren't returning a lot of starters, but are returning a lot of players with experience, and have the potential to vie for the Big East title.

South Florida finished last season ranked 17th nationally in total defense and the unit should be a strong point again this year in D-coordinator Mark Snyder's second year. Although the Bulls suffered many key losses on defense, they return quite a few players with meaningful playing experience. They are anchored by one of the best linebacker units in the conference and, although losing Jaquian Williams was big, the Bulls have a good amount of depth at the position and should see an improvement over what was already a very good unit.

If QB B.J. Daniels, who will have the same coordinator in successive seasons for the first time in his career, can build upon his bowl game performance, the Bulls will have a shot to go far within the conference.

For more from Larry Weisbaum and the Bulls, check out USFNation.com.

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 South Florida Bulls
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	@Notre Dame Fighting Irish	28	22-29
2	Ball State Cardinals	95	35-10
3	Florida A&M Rattlers	95	48-8
4	UTEP Miners	95	33-14
5	@Pittsburgh Panthers	25	23-30
7	@Connecticut Huskies	50	24-23
8	Cincinnati Bearcats	43	27-29
10	@Rutgers Scarlet Knights	81	29-17
11	@Syracuse Orange	54	24-23
12	Miami (FL) Hurricanes	30	18-28
13	Louisville Cardinals	65	25-20
14	West Virginia Mountaineers	21	19-30

Syracuse

Never one to rest on his accomplishments, Doug Marrone is forging ahead, constantly teaching and always preaching the fundamentals of being a winner. While his depth and talent remain a cut below the league's best teams, his system and philosophy have been fully implemented, which is a huge part of the blueprint. Maintaining last year's level of competitiveness, though, will come with tall hurdles. A bunch of starters from the 8-5 squad are gone, like the center, 1,000-yard rusher and more than half of an underrated defense. Good news comes from the fact that Ryan Nassib is back at quarterback, four starting offensive linemen return, and the new Syracuse program is never going to be about an individual player. It's a team thing going forward.

- CFN, Scout.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Syracuse Orange
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	78	29-18
2	Rhode Island Rams	95	50-6
3	@USC Trojans	26	21-30
4	Toledo Rockets	64	30-24
5	Rutgers Scarlet Knights	79	28-18
6	@Tulane Green Wave	88	32-14
8	West Virginia Mountaineers	22	18-28
9	@Louisville Cardinals	55	25-21
10	@Connecticut Huskies	54	24-23
11	South Florida Bulls	45	23-24
13	Cincinnati Bearcats	49	28-29
14	@Pittsburgh Panthers	30	23-29

Connecticut

These are interesting times in the Nutmeg State. Connecticut is the defending Big East champ, yet is without Edsall on the sidelines for the first time since 1998. New coach Paul Pasqualoni is preparing to stare down his critics, the throngs who've questioned this hire since January. He inherits a program that's won at least eight games in each of the past four seasons, so elevated expectations will afford him a short honeymoon period in his return back home.

- CFN, Scout.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Connecticut Huskies
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	Fordham Rams	95	50-7
2	@Vanderbilt Commodores	72	27-18
3	Iowa State Cyclones	79	28-18
4	@Buffalo Bulls	86	30-14
5	Western Michigan Broncos	63	30-24
6	@West Virginia Mountaineers	22	19-28
7	South Florida Bulls	50	23-24
9	@Pittsburgh Panthers	21	21-31
10	Syracuse Orange	45	23-24
12	Louisville Cardinals	56	24-22
13	Rutgers Scarlet Knights	73	26-19
14	@Cincinnati Bearcats	39	26-29

Louisville

With only modest talent, Louisville gutted out the necessary victories to qualify for a bonus game. It then built a head of steam for 2011 by defeating Southern Miss in the Beef O'Brady's Bowl. Go ahead and call it the ground floor of Strong's rebuilding plan. It's a good thing the Cardinals are learning how to do more with less because the overall talent level won't improve overnight. There are still plenty of question marks on offense, mainly at quarterback and along the depleted line.

- CFN, Scout.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Louisville Cardinals
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	Murray State Racers	95	45-9
2	FIU Golden Panthers	73	31-22
3	@Kentucky Wildcats	53	21-20
5	Marshall Thundering Herd	77	26-16
6	@North Carolina Tar Heels	24	20-27
7	@Cincinnati Bearcats	38	24-30
8	Rutgers Scarlet Knights	73	26-19
9	Syracuse Orange	43	21-25
10	@West Virginia Mountaineers	14	16-29
11	Pittsburgh Panthers	19	19-32
12	@Connecticut Huskies	43	22-24
13	@South Florida Bulls	35	20-25

Rutgers

This is a big year for Rutgers, which has to rebound quickly. With the bar now higher than ever, the Knights can ill-afford a reprisal of the gory days, when nine-loss seasons were the norm. The concern, however, is that the problems that plagued the team last fall will not be easily resolved by the returning talent. Chas Dodd is a raw second-year quarterback, and both lines have serious concerns. The defense needs another full season of reps in order to correct its problems, especially when the ball is in the air.

- CFN, Scout.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	North Carolina Central Eagles	95	43-9
2	@North Carolina Tar Heels	16	17-31
4	Ohio Bobcats	40	22-26
5	@Syracuse Orange	21	18-28
6	Pittsburgh Panthers	14	19-34
7	Navy Midshipmen	36	20-25
8	@Louisville Cardinals	27	19-26
9	West Virginia Mountaineers	8	15-34
10	South Florida Bulls	18	17-29
11	@Army Black Knights	61	22-20
12	Cincinnati Bearcats	23	21-32
13	@Connecticut Huskies	27	19-26