Realistic Expectations for Peyton Manning and His Healing Neck in 2011

After watching Peyton Manning command the Indianapolis Colts offense like a field general for the past decade, it's been easy to write off his current neck injury as a simple inconvenience. 

This isn't a medical professional talking, but most people are aware that any injury involving the neck can be serious and debilitating, but even so, due to Manning's superb performances on the field over the years, it's hard for anyone to imagine Manning playing at a mediocre level, even if he did miss training camp and the preseason.

However, this injury could be our first glimpse at the mortality of the player, rather than the invincibility of the legend that we've familiarized ourselves with.

Manning has started every game of his career, which equals out to 208 consecutive starts, but the Colts front office understands that there's a good chance that the streak could end, which is why they brought Kerry Collins out of retirement and offered him a $4 million contract to be the team's backup quarterback.

But whether it's the first or fifth game, what can we realistically expect out of Manning after he returns?

Just Like Riding a Bicycle...

With most players returning from injury during the season, especially when they miss training camp, one of the biggest concerns is whether or not that player can quickly become reacquainted with the playbook and the pace of the game.

However, Peyton Manning is not every player.

Manning threw the football 679 times in 2010, which was just 12 attempts shy of tying Drew Bledsoe's single-season record of 691 in 1994.

The point is that Manning is capable of putting an offense on his shoulders. He plays with his brain more than his arm, so if anyone can waltz into a game four weeks into the season and play at a high level, then it's Manning.

If he's not physically debilitated to any serious extent, then he will not need an adjustment period. But that brings up the next point...

Keep Your Head on a Swivel

If Manning is still feeling crippled from his neck surgery, then we'll know it from watching him play.

If he had a broken finger, then he'd tape it up and put less pressure on it. If he had a rib injury, then he would wear some extra padding to absorb the hits.

However, he has a neck injury, which could greatly limit him if he's experiencing pain.

A quarterback hardly ever keeps his head perfectly straight. They need to read the defense, from cornerback to cornerback, and they also need to watch their receivers. Manning will constantly be looking from the left to the right, and it will begin to affect him after four quarters if he's experiencing any pain in his neck.

His mind can be completely into the game, but if he's feeling a nagging pain on every single play, then it could have a negative effect on his reads, as well as overall productivity. 

Put Me in Coach, I'm Ready To Go!

Realistically, when it comes to the Indianapolis Colts, Manning probably has just as much of a say as the coaches. It's somewhat rare when a player can be perceived as more powerful as the head coach, but in Manning's case it just might be true.

If he wants to play, he's going to play whether they like it or not. But Manning is not a dumb person, so he'll listen to the advice given to him by the doctors and trainers working with him.

So Manning's stats and overall production in 2011 will obviously depend on when he gets back onto the field, but it will also depend on when the trainers and coaches allow him to get onto the field.

Reports indicate that if Manning's neck does not heal properly, then there's a possible chance of nerve damage in his future. Knowing this, it's likely that the staff will be pretty conservative with the recovery in order to avoid risks, and Manning will likely agree, at least for now.

But the Colts start the 2011 season against four solid football teams, including the Houston Texans, the up-and-coming Cleveland Browns, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

So what if the Colts start the season with two, three or even four consecutive losses before Manning is completely healed?

Would he continue to listen to the advice of his coaches and trainers in that scenario? Or would he put his foot down and force himself onto the field?

Right now, Manning and the staff seem to be in agreement. But the training staff consists of healers, while Manning is a competitor. Therefore, there is a chance that the two opposites could ultimately clash.

At some point this season, Manning could be playing by his decisions, and his alone.

Colts' Season and Possible Implications

The Colts have been the face of the AFC South for a long time now, winning the division seven out of the last eight seasons. 

With the high-powered Houston Texans offense breathing down their necks and with Peyton Manning likely out of the picture for their Week 1 matchup, is this the beginning of the end as far as the Colts' stranglehold on the AFC South?

Not likely. 

While Manning is 35 years old, he's also a freak of nature, so he can likely remain productive for another three to five years. He's been the biggest obstacle for the Texans, so he'll spell trouble for Houston as long as he's under center. 

Also, if you look at the Colts' schedule, you'll see that Houston is their only division game until their Week 8 encounter with the Tennessee Titans. 

So while the Colts are vulnerable without their guardian on the field, they only have a chance at losing one division game while he's injured, assuming that the injury isn't worse than expected and will be healed before Week 8. 

Stats and Fantasy

So what if you couldn't care less about the Colts and just want to know what kind of numbers to expect out of Manning in 2011?

There is no easy answer, simply because there is no clear timetable set for his return. He could miraculously return for the season opener against the Houston Texans, or it could be as long as five or six games into the season.

However, there will be no adjustment period with a prized veteran like Manning. As soon as he is feeling healthy and playing, then he'll likely be playing as good as ever.

If you have a fantasy team, then Manning could be a steal. Most teams will likely avoid him in the early rounds due to the likelihood of him missing playing time, but once he returns he should put up similar numbers, the only difference is he won't cost a first-round pick.

As far as stats go, he is averaging 31 touchdown passes a season over the last five years, which means he's averaging 1.9 touchdown passes a game over the last five seasons.

So take that 1.9 and multiply it by however many games you think he'll miss, let's say three, which would be 5.7. Then you subtract 5.7 from his 31 touchdown average, which is 25.3 and that's about how many touchdowns you can expect out of him in 2011, assuming you agree that he'll miss three games.

The same formula can be used for yardage.

It's nice when you have a robot at quarterback, because robots can always be predicted using math. So crunch the numbers and decide for yourself if he's worthy of a roster spot on your fantasy team.