Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: The Myth of Drafting for "Value"

There’s a word that is thrown around way too much in the world of fantasy sports. This particular word is used a bunch when you talk about NFL teams drafting college players, as well as it should be.

When a team, like the Cincinnati Bengals, for example, drafts players like a Chris Henry (2005 third-round pick) or a Frostee Rucker (2006 third-round pick), they’re drafting these guys in the hopes that their first or second-round talent grades come to fruition.

If they were first or second round grades, why are they slipping to the third round then? Maybe they had some lingering injury issues, or in cases like these guys, they may have had some other off-field issues that caused a slip.

The further these players slip down, the more “value” they gain in the team’s eyes. There’s less money tied into these players, so in the event the worst-case scenario occurs, the teams aren’t invested too much anyways.

However, this is just not the case when it comes to fantasy football. Fantasy football participants are not out there drafting guys for a professional sports team in hopes they develop into their first round grade in two or three years.

We’re drafting players who will simply put the ball in the end zone and rack up more yards than other players. Period. It’s really that simple.

The mere notion of having to pass up on a guy simply because he isn’t projected to go where you are drafting is ludicrous—especially if he is projected to go in the next round anyway.

A perfect example is the much talked about LeGarrette Blount. He’s being valued as a late third to middle fourth-round pick. Now if you’re an adept fantasy mind, then I don’t have to tell you what Blount did in seven games as a starter as an undrafted rookie last year.

Now take that adept fantasy mind of yours and put yourself in this position: You have the No. 1 overall pick in your draft (relax yourself, amigos, I’m not suggesting you take him No. 1 overall).

However, you will be sitting there with back-to-back picks at the end of the second round and beginning of the third round and nine running backs have already been taken—Charles, Peterson, Johnson, Foster, Rice, McCoy, Mendenhall, Turner and MJD.

What do you do? Do you take Matt Forte with that atrocious O-line? What about Frank Gore? Gore is a good PPR guy to have (when not sidelined with injury of course). Gore supposedly has great value at that spot, but what does that value do for you if he goes down with yet another injury—and don’t forget what kind of disarray the Niners are in at quarterback.

The only real argument one has would be an argument for Darren McFadden. Run DMC had a great 2010 season, but the Raiders still have Michael Bush taking a lot of touches away from him.

So, you’re there thinking about all this and you also know—because you’re a great fantasy mind—that LGB has NOBODY taking carries away from him. This means he’s going to be in there on goal-line situations and 3^rd downs. 

What do you do? Do you roll the dice in hopes he’s there when it comes back around to you because you would get better perceived value?

Is value telling you to select the Gores, Jacksons and Run DMCs of the world, and just let him slip away to someone else? You could, but you know—because you’re smart—that he’s not going to be there when it gets back around to you.

So don’t’ let value dictate what to do when drafting and do not let him get away. You draft him because you know damn well he is going to outproduce the aforementioned running backs.

By no means is this a reach. You’re not losing value whatsoever by taking a guy like LGB inside the top 25 picks. We’re not talking about taking the likes of a Brandon Jackson (no disrespect) in the sixth round here; we’re talking about a legitimate stud starter for a decent team.

Or, you could just be the guy who waits until the fourth round to draft the "Law Firm"—then proceed to jump up and down and all around because you supposedly just scored yourself tons of these perceived “value” points.

Is it value though? He did put up a ton of touchdowns last year, but wait—how many running backs do the New England Patriots use on a regular basis? Who is the coach of the Patriots again?

So, why ignore value? If you haven’t figured it out by now, because value can only truly be determined at the end of the season—that and the money and/or trophy you take home with you.