A Look Back at NFL's Preseason Predictions

I’m going to do this a little differently than I did last year.  Last year, I did a division-by-division breakdown of how my preseason picks went, and I thought it was way too long and hard for people to follow. 

This year, I am printing out the standings as I picked the NFL and going to make some general observations about my picks and list some of the funnier comments by readers that followed them. 

The starred teams were my wild cards. I am by no means making fun of anyone. I'm just having a good laugh about how much all of us think we know in the offseason, but we really don’t. 

 
Standings

AFC East                                    NFC East
 
1. New England (13-3)            1. Dallas (12-4)
 
2. New York Jets (7-9)             2. Philadelphia (10-6)*
 
3. Buffalo (7-9)                          3. New York Giants (9-7)*
 
4. Miami (5-11)                         4. Washington (7-9)

AFC South                                NFC South
 
1. Jacksonville (13-3)               1. New Orleans (10-6)
 
2. Indianapolis (12-4)*             2. Tampa Bay (8-8)
 
3. Tennessee (9-7)                  3. Carolina (7-9)
 
4. Houston (7-9)                       4. Atlanta (5-11)

AFC North                                NFC North
 
1.Pittsburgh (11-5)                  1.   Minnesota (11-5)
 
2. Cleveland (10-6)*                2. Green Bay (8-8)
 
3.Cincinnati (5-11)                  3. Detroit (6-10)
 
4. Baltimore (4-12)                  4. Chicago (5-11)

AFC West                               NFC West
 
1. San Diego (12-4)              1. Arizona (9-7)
 
2. Denver (9-7)                       2. Seattle (8-8)
 
3. Oakland (6-10)                  3. St Louis (6-10)
 
4. Kansas City (5-11)           4. San Francisco (4-12)

Picks I’m most proud of: This one is easy. I’m very proud of the job I did in the NFC West. I took a lot of heat from Seattle fans about how I didn’t know what I was talking about, having Seattle missing the playoffs. Unless they can overcome a four-game deficit in the final seven games, I will have correctly picked the NFC West. 

I also had the division as the weakest in the NFL with only one team having a winning record and nobody over 10 games. That could also happen.

Second, I am proud of my Green Bay pick. There were a lot of people that thought they would be 12-4 or 11-5 this year and run away with that division. While I didn’t have Chicago near the top, I had Minnesota there. That division still has a long way to go, but Green Bay is clearly worse than 2007 at this point, no matter how they finish.

My analysis of them taking a step back without Favre has proven to be correct, although I will also be the first to admit that I didn’t think Rodgers would do as well as he has been to date.

Third, I was proud of my Pittsburgh pick. A lot of people jumped on the Cleveland bandwagon and thought the schedule would be too tough for Pittsburgh to even make the playoffs. Pittsburgh is tied for first place, and Cleveland has really struggled.

Picks I’m Indifferent too: I’m not too embarrassed about Tennessee. I had them with a winning record and in the playoff hunt. Nobody had them where they are currently.

Same with Carolina. I said all along they had the talent to compete in that division, so long as Delhomme stayed healthy. I didn’t think he would come back from elbow surgery as well as he has to this date. I didn’t like their backup situation.

I’m also not too embarrassed about the job I did in the AFC East. I never saw Brady getting hurt in Week One, nor did I know Favre would come out of retirement and Pennington would go to Miami. That would have changed my picks a lot.

Picks I’m embarrassed about: I didn’t see the Giants being this dominant. While I knew last year was not a fluke—I had them still making the playoffs—I just didn’t see 8-1 out of the gate coming. They have impressed more than I ever thought they would, evidenced by me having them as only the last wild card.

I’m embarrassed that New Orleans suckered me in again for a second straight year. Their offense is so explosive, and I always seem to think that will make up for their lack of a running game or defense.  Now I am apologizing for picking them again.

Finally, I’m embarrassed about my Super Bowl pick. I really thought Jacksonville was one of the hottest teams in the league to close the season and would carry that over to this season. I was sold on MJD and Taylor carrying the Jaguars to the Super Bowl. While I couldn’t have foreseen some of their offensive-line issues, this team has really underachieved this year.

My best prediction: “The Seahawks will still win their share of games. They will still be tough at home. I wouldn’t be shocked if they were able to put together a division winner. The NFC West isn’t exactly the toughest division right now. 

"I just think it is someone else’s time. The Cardinals should be able to maneuver the middle of the season with greater ease than the Seahawks and build a cushion heading into their tough stretch to close the season.”

My worst prediction: “I messed up on this team last year, because I didn’t respect their (Tennessee Titans) defense and running game enough. I picked them to finish under .500 and last in the division. The Titans are among the best in the league in those areas and that should be enough to win a lot of games. They were able to win without a potent passing game in 2007, and I am not going to let that fool me in 2008.

"That said, I don’t see how they did enough to pass Jacksonville and Indianapolis and as the sixth seed. They finished tied with Cleveland in 2007, so it isn’t like they had much room to spare. Cleveland has made a lot of improvements in the offseason. I think the Titans finish 9-7 in 2008 and fight it out with Cleveland for that last playoff spot. This season, I think the Browns get the better end of that deal.”

My five favorite fan comments: (Street Cred is my forums nickname)

1)   Good morning, StreetCred! It's a risky pick to go with AZ over Seattle. I think the Seahawks have a 13-3 schedule this year, and I seriously doubt they miss the playoffs in that division. Take care! -Mike Greenspire

2)   Great read. I like your observations on this division. Kiffin and Napp have installed a great offense for Russell. Timing and roll outs help offset a weak O-line. Miller and Curry are solid possession receivers. Flexing out McFadden is scary. Bush will prove to be a load.  Thomas Howard is an emerging star. Ask Cutler how many passes he plans on throwing to him this year?  Raiders sweep chiefs and broncos and split with Chargers this year. – RaiderEasy

3)   are you crazy street cred? Ravens struggled last because the starting corners were injured..they have too much talent to only win four games...all they have to do is not turn the ball over and there in every game...

You saw what happened when the Pats played them with their starting corners starting the game...Ravens are going to be ok...top five defence in the NFL as long as Ray Ray and Ed Reed are there... every time when ppl overlook the Ravens they always find a way... – Bungholes

4)   While it's true that nobody truly knows how strong Delhomme's arm feels but Delhomme, his coaches and teammates are the observers and recipients of the balls he's throwing. Their statements to the press is what I'm going on.

And granted, he's only throwing 30-40 times a day, but with Carolina's new and improved "ram it down their throat" run first offense, it's not likely he'll throw even that much on game day. So, in my opinion, Carolina is poised to make a strong run deep into the playoffs this year. – DaRealBooyah

5)   Liked the blog, the breakdowns were very well thought out and sensible. Only prob I (a Giants fan) have is the trap that you are not seeing from the Cowboys. They have 13 probowlers but don't seem like a team. Like the recent Yankee teams, all the talent doesn't mean you win. Football is the consummate team sport and the boys don't seem like a team. I say look out for the Eagles to have a real big bounce back year. – Padcubed

With eight divisions out there, I could have listed a ton of comments. Those were five that I found, while looking back at them now, that I thought were either right on or way off.  I have enough egg on my face from my predictions that the last thing I would do is make fun of anyone for what they thought would happen in August. Thank you to everyone that posted comments.

Here is how I see it going forward. 

In the AFC, Tennessee is in excellent position to grab the No. 1 seed. They have a three-game lead over everyone in the conference with seven games to play. It will be interesting to see if the...

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