UGA Football 2011: Could a One-Loss Georgia Team Be in BCS Championship Game?

UGA is in an unusually precarious position this year for a team in the SEC—their schedule is too WEAK. The Bulldogs only play five opponents ranked in the preseason Top 25, three of which are Mississippi State at 20, Florida at 22 and Auburn at 23.

It’s possible that UGA will end up with having played two or less opponents in the regular season that are still ranked in the Top 25 at the end of the season. 

With the schedule playing out like this, Georgia has a razor thin, if any, margin for error this year to harbor any hopes of a national championship. Obviously, an undefeated season capped off by a SEC Championship victory should guarantee a spot in the BCS Championship Game—“should” being the key word (ask the 2004 Auburn Tigers about that one). 

But I think the only way Georgia is kept out in that scenario is if there are two other undefeated teams from BCS conferences and the winner of the SEC West is ranked out of the Top 5 when the SEC Championship game is played.

The question becomes: Is it possible for a one-loss UGA team to make it to the national championship game? The answer: It depends.

At this point, I think it bears mentioning that this writer believes the voters are going to look for any excuse to keep the SEC out of the BCS championship game. In this PC world, it’s probably viewed as time to give another conference a chance.

So that being said, let’s examine a one interesting scenario and examine how UGA might fare.  In this hypothetical, Georgia loses a close game to Boise State, runs the table the rest of the way, and beats a one-loss Alabama team ranked No. 3 in the nation behind two undefeated teams, Oregon and Boise State.

Going further, let’s say Oklahoma losses only one game, to Florida State, finishes the regular season ranked No. 4.  The Sooners would be the Big 12 Champions, but they lose the opportunity to move up by playing a strong opponent in a conference championship game.  Oregon, on the other hand does get a championship game this year to give them a late boost, which we'll assume they win.

Okay, which two of Oregon, Boise State, Oklahoma and Georgia deserves to play in the BCS Championship game? I would say based on schedule, it SHOULD be Oregon and Georgia, despite UGA having one loss.

I am aware that this puts a Georgia team that lost to Boise State ahead of them to play for the championship. But by the end of the season—should Georgia run the table—they will be the better, battle-hardened team by the end of the season.   

Honestly, I am starting to think this discussion, more than anything else, is an argument for why college football needs a playoff, or at the very least, a BCS plus-one scenario where No. 1 plays No. 4 and No. 2 plays No. 3, then the winners meet to decide a champion.  But that’s another topic for another day.

Regardless, because of Georgia’s relatively weak schedule, I do think it would take some extraordinary circumstances in the rest of the NCAA and for UGA to beat a very, very strong team out of the west in the SEC Championship game for a one-loss UGA team to have a shot at the national championship in 2011.