2011 College Football AP Top 25: Breaking Down Why Michigan Is Unranked

The preseason Associated Press football poll was published over the weekend, and Michigan finished just below the top 25. 

The Wolverines did receive a few votes, placing them in a position just ahead of Tennessee and below Iowa.

To finish the regular season in that position, Michigan's record would be around 7-5, good enough for a middle-to-lower tier bowl game.

One wonders if the Wolverines received too much love by the pollsters, or too little. Let's look at how the Wolverines will fare slightly better than a mediocre football team. 

No Definite Leader at Running Back

Other than Denard Robinson, Michigan's running game in 2010 was disappointing. Vincent Smith totaled 601 yards, Michael Shaw 422 and Stephen Hopkins 151.

With Michigan attempting to switch to a pro-style offense, Hopkins became the odds-on favorite to become the featured back.  But mwolverine.com cites a rumor that Hopkins may be suspended for the opener because of failing a non-prescription drug test.

That leaves returnees Fitzgerald Toussaint, Michael Cox and Michael Shaw to fight it out for the top spot with Vincent Smith (5'6", 172 lbs.) playing a supporting role because of his size.

Unless freshman Thomas Rawls, who's been very impressive, can learn the system really fast.

“There’s no clear No. 1,"  Big Ten Network analyst Howard Griffith told the Detroit Free Press.  "They have players. What’s happening is they’re not getting consistent play from those players."

Without a real go-to running back, more pressure is going to fall on Robinson. Not exactly what the Wolverines need.  

Defense Must Improve to Reach Mediocrity

The good news is that Michigan returns 10 starters to the 2011 defense. The bad news is that same group gave up over 35 points-per-game last season and crumbled down the stretch.

But head coach Brady Hoke brought in respected defensive coordinator Greg Mattison from the Baltimore Ravens to junk the 3-3-5 in favor of the more conventional 4-3 look.

With the return of cornerbacks Troy Woolfolk and J.T. Floyd to the defensive backfield, and the addition of Jake Ryan, Greg Brown and Josh Furman, Michigan's defense should improve from disgusting to nearly respectable. 

Brady Hoke's Learning Curve

The hiring of Brady Hoke looks like a dream come true.

From the day he accepted the job, Hoke has impressed practically everyone in the Michigan family. Ex-players and fans alike have been thrilled with his early recruiting success, especially in his home state of Ohio.

Supporters point out that he's rebuilt programs at Ball State and San Diego State. But truthfully, he's yet to battle the the likes of Michigan State, Nebraska and Ohio State.

There will definitely be a learning curve, so a Big Ten title in 2011 is probably out of the question.   

Recruits Won't Pay Huge Dividends Until 2012

Hoke has done a fine job completing Rich Rodriguez' 2011 recruiting class, and his current class might wind up in the top five.

With the current roster still very young, adding the 2012 class could well turn the Wolverines from a middle-of-the-pack team into a real contender.

This season, look for freshmen Thomas Rawls, Chris Barnett, and Jerald Robinson to push for playing time on offense, while Nate Brink, Tony Countess, Raymon Taylor and Josh Furman seek action on defense.

In the 2012 class, look for Kyle Kalis, Ondre Pipkins and Caleb Ringer to make early contributions.

As Denard Goes...

Just as he did in 2011, junior quarterback Denard Robinson will carry the offense on his back all season.

On one hand, you hear the coaching staff talk about transitioning to a pro-style offense. On the other hand your hear about adopting the offense to Denard's strength.

Regardless of which scheme becomes the favorite, it's essential to keep Robinson healthy. It's critical that the staff keep Robinson's carries down to about 12 per game from last season's 20.

To do that, it will be necessary for the passing game to click and, as mentioned earlier, the running backs to make a significant contribution.

The wild card might be the offensive line. Basically a year older across the board, the line should give Robinson more time to throw, thus eliminating the many punishing scrambles from a year ago.    

Kicking Game Suspect Early

If it wasn't enough to ask freshman Matt Wile to take over the place-kicking duties, he may also end up being the team's punter, at least temporarily.

Will  Hagerup, who averaged a superb 43.6 yards per punt as a freshman last season, missed the 2010 Ohio State game  for breaking team rules. He's since been suspended for the first four games of the upcoming season. Seems like one game last season and four this season is a pattern going in the wrong direction.

Meanwhile, Michigan made only four of 14 field goals last season. In his last year of high school football, Wile hit 10 of 13, including a 49-yarder.    

Disappointing Big Ten Play Discourages Pollsters

What's probably been most discouraging about Michigan's play in the last three seasons, has been it's lack of success in the Big Ten.

The Wolverines accumulated a 6-18 record in the conference, including 0-3 marks against Penn State, Michigan State and Ohio State.

It also didn't help that both Michigan State and Ohio State were huge rivalry games, which received quite a bit of attention. And, please, don't look at the scores. Only the 2009 overtime loss to Michigan State wasn't a blowout. 

Conclusion:

Considering Michigan was outscored 137-49 in the final three games of 2011, the pollsters are certainly justified to place Michigan outside the top 25.   

Look for Michigan to move up after a win over Western then take a bigger leap after a Notre Dame victory. The big test will be Michigan State, and if they lose up in East Lansing, expect the Wolverines to disappear for ever.

Or at least until 2012, when they might even crack the Top 10.