What Will the BCS Bowl Matchups Be?

The release of the preseason AP Poll not only sets the base line for the weekly rankings as the season goes on, it also provide an absolute plethora of accessory information.

Everything from conference power rankings, predicted order of divisional and conference finish to Heisman odds can be at least partially inferred from the rankings which makes the idea of using the poll to gauge a very rough estimate of who will participate in the 2011-12 BCS seem reasonable.

The following slideshow does just that and uses the initial AP rankings to project the match-ups for each of the four BCS bowls and the BCS National Championship game.

How accurate is it?

Well, by applying this same methodology to last year’s preseason AP rankings 2010, should have ended with the following story lines; Alabama beats Florida in the SEC title game, Texas wins the Big 12, Stanford finishes the season unranked, Auburn finishes third in the SEC West and Alabama faces Ohio State in the national title game (the Tide win and therefore the Buckeyes don't have to vacate the championship later on).

Therefore, let’s take all this marvelous prognosticating with a big, well-prescribed, grain of salt.

2012 BCS Rose Bowl

Match-up:  Nebraska vs. Oregon

According to the AP poll, Nebraska is the best team in the new Big Ten and just edges Wisconsin in the first ever Big Ten Championship game (but the Badgers don’t make the BCS due to their No. 11 ranking which is trumped by the “second” teams from the SEC, Pac-12 and Big 12 who all finish with more precious points).

Oregon wins the first ever Pac-12 Championship game and though they should have faced USC who won the South (as per the AP poll) the Trojans can’t participate in the title game and instead the Ducks beat Arizona State (who got the next most votes in the division in the AP poll) for the conference crown.

If the AP guys are correct, Oregon beats the Huskers’ in a closely contested Rose Bowl.

2012 BCS Sugar Bowl

Match-up:  Boise State vs. LSU

The Broncos finish the season undefeated but are left out of the championship equation by two BCS teams also achieving perfection and so Boise State settles for its third ever BCS at-large bid instead.

Despite the fact that LSU doesn’t win the SEC West (according to the AP they are second in the division) or participate in the SEC title game they still finish with the second best record in the conference (again, because the AP says so) and therefore become the second SEC team in the 2012 BCS extravaganza.

If this match-up actually came to fruition it would be one of the best clashes in BCS history and if the AP poll is valid then LSU squeaks by with a win in a thrilling Sugar Bowl.

2012 BCS Orange Bowl

Match-up:  Florida State vs. Stanford

Florida State (per the AP) beats Virginia Tech in the ACC championship game and earns their first trip to a BCS game since 2006 when they lost to Penn State in the Orange Bowl.

Stanford doesn’t overtake Oregon in the Pac-12 North division but still wins enough games (because the AP poll tells us so) to be the second best team in the Pac-12 and ranks high enough in the BCS standings to earn a return at-large trip to the Orange Bowl.

The boys down at AP central have voted in a way that has the Seminoles edging the singular Cardinal in the 2012 playing of the Orange Bowl.

2012 BCS Fiesta Bowl

Match-up:   Texas A&M vs. West Virginia

The Aggies don’t win the Big 12 but they (like Stanford) win enough games and have enough BCS points to earn an at-large bid marking the first time Texas A&M breaks into the BCS since 1999 when they lost to Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl (all according to our handy-dandy AP reference guide).

Since West Virginia is the only Big East team ranked in the AP poll, they win the conference and garner their first BCS appearance since pummeling Oklahoma in the 2009 Fiesta Bowl.

Who finishes second in the Big East?  According to the AP poll it’s Pitt who received a sizzling nine votes in the opening poll.

And then, who wins the actual Fiesta Bowl?  Well, the AP’s rankings show a lot of confidence that the Aggies will stomp the Mountaineers and capture their first ever BCS win in the process.

2012 BCS National Championship Game

Match-up:  Oklahoma vs. Alabama

The AP poll makes this match-up crystal clear; it’s the Sooners and Crimson Tide clashing in a national championship extravaganza.

They’re both undefeated (the Sooners beat Florida State, the Tide get the better of LSU), they have the two biggest BCS point totals and they both travel to New Orleans for the January 9, 2012 game that represents the crown jewel in the “showcase of college football.”

So, who gets to take a bite out of football’s biggest enchilada? Indeed, who holds the crystal pigskin aloft at the end of a swarthy January night in the Big Easy?

The AP poll is fairly clear on this point as well…and it’s Stoops who trumps Saban, capturing his second ever National Championship in the process.