2011 NFL Predictions: 6 Reasons Alex Smith Won't Be Niners' Starter by Week 8

It has been a rough marriage for the San Francisco 49ers and their five-year starting quarterback Alex Smith.

Both parties refuse to get a divorce even though the couple hasn't had enough bright spots to call it even a remotely successful relationship.

With yet another disappointing season in 2010, the 49ers and its faithful thought that the day had finally come when Smith would leave the 49er family and find a new home.

Boy, were we all awfully wrong.

Alex Smith is back in action with the 49ers and is actually the front-runner to snag the opening day starting spot at quarterback.

In actuality, I believe a lot of factors play into head coach Jim Harbaugh's decision to stick with Alex Smith as the team's quarterback and I will touch on them throughout this article.

However, here are six reasons why Alex Smith will no longer be the 49ers' quarterback by week eight of the 2011 season.

1) There Is Really Only 1 Reason Why Alex Smith Is Back

Yes, and one reason only: the NFL lockout.

Since the work-stoppage prevented the 49ers from looking for outside help at the quarterback position, it left the team in an awkward position.

Smith was the only decent quarterback who had a rapport with the offense, and that offense was about to learn an entirely new offensive scheme that Harbaugh wanted to implement.

Smith already knew the players on the offense and was willing to lead "Camp Alex" during the offseason in order to give the team a head start in grasping the new offensive blueprint. 

In a perfect world, Alex Smith wouldn't have been the best option for the 49ers at quarterback this upcoming season.

However, Harbaugh realized what the situation was and decided made the best of it, and that was making Smith the starting quarterback and the team leader once again.

2) Alex Smith Looked Horrible in the 1st Preseason Game

I will give Smith the benefit of the doubt since the New Orleans Saints pass rush threw him around like a rag doll.

However, it was what Smith did when he had time in the pocket that reminded the 49ers fans of the good ol' Alex that they know all too well.

Smith looked hesitant and uncomfortable in the pocket and continually threw below or behind his receivers, both reoccurring themes in his five-year career.

Worst of all, he failed to recognize the blitz and held onto the ball too long, which is partly the reason why he was under so much pressure in the first quarter. It was up to Alex to read blitz and either audible to a quick passing pattern or to adjust the protection. From what I saw, he continually failed to do both.

Yes, the offensive line played horribly and it was only the first game of the year under a head coach who only had 11 or so days to prepare his troops.

However, it was the fact that this offense had zero rhythm while Smith was under center that worried me the most. 

3) Bye Week Will Be Key

If Smith were to lose his starting job, it will likely be by week eight, the 49ers bye week.

While Smith is the starter, he will be taking all of the first-team reps in practices, which are key to a quarterback's success during the real games.

If Harbaugh were to make a change mid-season, it would greatly benefit the team if the new quarterback had two weeks to work with the first-team offense instead of just one.

Chemistry plays a vital factor in football, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The more time the offense has to gel with their new quarterback, the better.

4) Harbaugh Will Be Pressured by the Media and the Fans

There is no doubting the unpopular relationship Alex Smith has with the Niner Nation.

After being selected with the first overall pick in the 2005 NFL draft, Smith has done little to prove why he was worthy of such a high selection.

Failure after failure, the fans grew tired of seeing Smith lose football games for their beloved team and the media never stopped its verbal onslaught directed towards Smith.

Many viewed 2010 as Smith's final audition to prove himself as a quality NFL starter, but even after another disappointing season, he is back with the team yet again.

Smith has now overstayed his welcome and is on a very short leash.

After Smith's first misstep, the fans and the media will be calling for his head, and Harbaugh might be forced into taking action.

5) Harbaugh Kicks the Tires and Tries to Bring in Culpepper

While it isn't official yet, Daunte Culpepper has tried out for the 49ers and is likely to sign a contract sometime in the near future. 

Yes, the arm-rolling, gun-slinging quarterback might be making his way to the bay, and reports have him already being checked into the 49ers team hotel.

While it is unlikely that Culpepper will act as anything more than a veteran presence on the quarterback depth chart, his audition certainly isn't good news for Alex Smith. 

The jury is out on whether or not Colin Kaepernick is ready to be a starting quarterback in the NFL, but if there had to be an answer, I believe Harbaugh would say "not yet."

If that is the case, the team will be forced to live and die by the play of Alex Smith, which could make a 49er fan take a deep breath and shake his or her head.

With the presence of Culpepper, Smith would have an adequate backup who could potentially step in at a moments notice and manage the game.

6) Kaepernick Is Harbaugh's First Puppy

It's true.

Before the 2011 draft, 49er fans were desperately trying to figure out who Harbaugh, the quarterback guru himself, would pick to become his student that he could mold and mentor into the quarterback of the future for the 49ers.

To the surprise of many, Harbaugh went with the raw but extremely athletic Colin Kaepernick out of Nevada, and 49er fans instantly began to daydream about a quarterback running all over the field like Michael Vick and bombing balls down field like Matthew Stafford.

Snap back to reality folks: Kaepernick isn't quite ready yet and Harbaugh knows this.

For the first six games of the season, Kaepernick will have a leash tied tightly around his neck like a puppy and will listen and do everything that Harbaugh tells him to do.

Kaepernick is a smart kid and his physical abilities are limitless. His rare combination of arm strength and speed is something that any quarterback mentor would drool over, which is exactly why Harbaugh moved up in the draft to select him.

His decision-making and accuracy are the only things that are holding Kaepernick back, and those two qualities are definitely teachable.

If Harbaugh feels that Kaepernick is ready to take the reigns after the bye week, expect no hesitation on Harbaugh's part to bench Smith in the favor of Kaepernick.

Why Smith Could Be Successful in 2011

From the sounds of this article, you might view me as a Alex Smith "hater."

However, I am actually the contrary and I have always believed that Smith could become a successful quarterback in the NFL. 

When talking about coming into the NFL in a rough situation, Smith's story will trump all others. The most notable excuse is that Smith has had a different offensive coordinator every single season he has been in the NFL, which means he has had to learn a completely different offensive scheme every single year.

That is a tough thing to do.

Smith has always lacked the supporting cast on offense to compete at a high level, and his development as a quarterback has always been pushed to the side due to the defensive emphasis that Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary instilled into the team.

Smith is finally receiving the proper coaching that he has desperately needed and will be in an offensive system that perfectly suits his style of play.

Will I be surprised to see Smith make strides to becoming a successful NFL quarterback this year?

No, I wouldn't, and I'm actually expecting it.

Only time will tell, but Smith's hourglass is about to run out.