College Football Rankings 2011: Predicting the Records for Every Top 25 Team

With the reports surfacing that the SEC and Texas A&M might start the move to "superconferences" sometime soon, you may have turned your attention away from the actual football season for a brief period of time.

It's now time to regain that focus.

Kickoff is less than three weeks away, and the intensity is really starting to ramp up at fall practices all across the country.

With key injuries such as the one to Arkansas' Knile Davis, the outlook for a team can dramatically change.

This list will run down the updated predicted records for every top 25 coaches' poll team.

Final projections include conference championship games, but not bowl games.

25. Penn State Nittany Lions

The Nittany Lions will be an improved team, but not exactly BCS material.

Derek Moye may well be the best wide receiver in the conference, but without some consistency at quarterback, his production won't be what it should.

But that won't be the key contributor to the Lions' losses this season. The schedule will be what trips them up. That early season visit from Alabama is scary. Penn State could pull off a win at home but would have to be extremely good on that day to knock off the Tide.

And then there is Iowa. The Nittany Lions are 8-1 against the Hawkeyes since 2000. The game is at home, so they might be favored, but if they have a nemesis, it's Iowa.

They also have road games at Northwestern, Wisconsin and Ohio State.

Not exactly easy street, especially when you consider the UW and OSU games are back to back.

2011 Record: 8-4

24. Texas Longhorns

With the kind of talent the Longhorns can throw on the field, some improvement over last season's fiasco is probably likely.

However, a new offensive coordinator taking the reins means it won't be all peaches and cream.

The quarterback situation is unsettled, and the defense will have to step up and prove it can actually stop somebody.

Not impossible, but a fairly imposing task.

The offense has some emerging stars, such as sophomore wide receiver Mike Davis, and if they  can gel and get some solid quarterback play, they will be fine.

The non-conference schedule is manageable—BYU is tough, but Texas gets to play host to the Cougars.

However, back-to-back games against the Oklahoma schools are going to be brutal, and three of the last four games on the schedule are on the road.

2011 Record: 8-4

23. Florida Gators

The Gators are not going to be in a BCS bowl, let's just clear the air of all that speculation right now.

Sure, they have some talent, and the non-conference schedule is ridiculously easy, with University of Alabama at Birmingham, Florida Atlantic and Furman not really squads to strike fear into the hearts of anyone.

But the SEC schedule is really brutal.

And with whole new offensive and defensive schemes being implemented, it's more likely the Gators find it difficult to finish near the top of the SEC East.

Give it a year or two.

They must face Alabama and LSU in consecutive weeks, travel to South Carolina, and there is the annual battle royale with Georgia to be concerned about.

On top of that, the season ends with a visit from Florida State.

Even with an experienced squad in a system they are comfortable with, it's hard to see the Gators being uber-successful with that conference schedule.

2011 Record: 7-5

22. Georgia Bulldogs

The Bulldogs could pull a move on us this year with shades of 2010 Virginia Tech. The Hokies lost their opener to Boise State in '10, then turned around and lost their next game to start 0-2. They then won the rest of their games and ended up in the Orange Bowl.

However, unlike the Hokies, the Dawgs will not play in the BCS.

They start the season against Boise State and South Carolina. Then the rest of the year, the only games that might be considered challenging should be at home versus Mississippi State and their annual bout with Florida.

Mark Richt would be happy with a double-digit win season, but it would really all be smoke and mirrors, as Georgia does not have to face any of the conferences top three teams.

2011 Record: 10-2

21. Missouri Tigers

Mizzou has been on the brink of great things in recent years.

Gary Pinkel's squad has won fewer than 10 games only one time in the last four years, but it always seems to fall just short of a BCS berth.

This season will be no different.

Sure, the Tigers have all kinds of experience and talent to throw on the field, and new quarterback James Franklin is a very talented guy who will help keep the offense humming, but Mizzou's schedule is rough from the get-go.

Miami (Ohio) is no pushover, and Arizona State will be in BCS conversation by the end of the season. 

The Tigers must travel to Oklahoma and Texas A&M, and host Oklahoma State.

They will be fortunate if they finish fourth in the conference.

2011 Record: 8-4

20. Mississippi State Bulldogs

Yet another SEC team with a ton of talent, and nowhere to go.

The Bulldogs will have a dynamic offense led by quarterback Chris Relf and wide receiver Chad Bumphis, but in the tough SEC West they will struggle to beat the top-tier teams.

Their non-conference schedule reads like a bad joke, with Memphis, UAB, La. Tech and Tennessee-Martin playing sacrificial lambs for Dan Mullen's team.

But when it comes to the conference schedule, things get ugly. Fast.

Georgia, South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU and Alabama are all on the schedule, and the Bulldogs will be lucky if they win two of those games.

2011 Record: 7-5

19. Auburn Tigers

Auburn fans, with all due respect, it's not 2010 anymore. You do not have the best player in college football to guide the offense. As a matter of fact, you lost what, 15 starters?

The Tigers are not going to make any noise in the SEC this season.

In conference play, Auburn must travel to South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU and Georgia. They also face a difficult test in a non-conference road trip to Clemson for Dabo Swinney's squad to try and get revenge.

With all the young guys taking the field, it's likely the Tigers struggle, and it will only seem worse due to last season's success.

2011 Record: 7-5

18. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

There is really no reasonable explanation for all the Irish hate floating around these days.

Sure, they have been overrated in the past—many teams have.

You would think people would be able to recognize the differences between this squad and some of the past overhyped groups.

Brian Kelly has a solid group assembled, and the offense will be spectacular, with guys like wide receiver Michael Floyd and running back Cierre Wood contributing in a big way.

But the defense is the heart and soul of this team. As it goes, so will go the Irish.

While not impossible, the schedule is difficult, with road trips to Michigan, Pitt and Stanford. The Irish have some tough tests at home as well, versus Michigan State, USC, Air Force and South Florida, but this team is BCS-bound.

2011 Record: 10-2

17. Michigan State Spartans

The Spartans will be in the hunt for the Big Ten's Legends division title, along with about four other teams.

Quarterback Kirk Cousins and running back Edwin Baker will provide the offensive spark for the Spartans.

But what about on defense?

Eric Gordon and Greg Jones are gone, and while there is some talent at certain positions, depth and experience may be a concern.

But the killer for the Spartans is their road slate. They must face Notre Dame, Ohio State, Nebraska, Iowa and Northwestern all on the road, and it's questionable whether they can make it through that slate of games without being knocked from conference title contention.

2011 Record: 8-4

16. Ohio State Buckeyes

Who plays quarterback?

Sure, the Buckeyes have a new head coach, several key players suspended and some serious attrition on defense, but the key for the Buckeyes will be the quarterback position.

Joe Bauserman is the conservative choice, but does not provide the same level of mobility that Terrelle Pryor was wont to have.

Braxton Miller may be the most exciting choice, but his limited experience may just beat out his unlimited potential in Luke Fickell's mind.

Either way, the Buckeyes are going to have a tough time staying atop the conference.

2011 Record: 8-4

15. TCU Horned Frogs

Ah, the Horned Frogs.

They seem to reload on the defensive side of the ball and will be very solid again this season.

That being said, it's doubtful the offense can duplicate its level of success from last season. Two All-Americans are gone from the o-line, along with star quarterback Andy Dalton and playmaking wide receiver Jeremy Kerley.

TCU's followers won't have to wait long to get a gauge of how good this team will be in 2011. They open on the road at Baylor and follow that up with a road trip to an improved Air Force squad.

The Frogs must also travel to San Diego and Boise State, neither of which will be fun trips.

2011 Record: 9-3

14. Arkansas Razorbacks

With Knile Davis, the Razorbacks were serious BCS contenders.

Without him, they take a serious step back.

Davis led SEC running backs in rushing yards last season, and would have allowed new quarterback Tyler Wilson some leeway in adjusting to being the starter.

The team will still be very good, but without Davis, road trips to LSU and Alabama become that much tougher, as do bouts with South Carolina, Texas A&M and Mississippi State.

Bobby Petrino's defense made progress last season, and is likely to do so again, but it may not be enough in the absence of Davis.

2011 Record: 9-3

13. Virginia Tech Hokies

This team will be fielding some inexperienced, yet talented players in '11.

In the less-than-brutal ACC, it may be enough to propel the Hokies to an undefeated regular season.

The great home-field advantage the Hokies enjoy at Lane Stadium has been well documented, and their more difficult competition all come to Lane.

Clemson, Miami and UNC all travel to face the Hokies.

David Wilson, the Hokies' new running back, is poised to have a monster season, and new quarterback Logan Thomas has the ability to see the field in a way Tyrod Taylor never did.

Frank Beamer's defenses are always solid, and this one should be no different.

2011 Record: 11-2

12. South Carolina Gamecocks

2010 started out pretty well for the Gamecocks. They won the SEC East and earned a trip to the conference championship game.

Then the wheels fell off.

They were absolutely destroyed by Auburn in that game, and then lost 26-17 to Florida State in their bowl game. This season, a return trip to the SEC Championship game is very likely, and if they can avoid a regular season loss to an unranked opponent, they might sneak into a BCS game.

There is no team in the country with as talented a combination of wide receiver, quarterback and running back as the Gamecocks.

If Steve Spurrier is going to win the SEC at SC, this is his shot.

2011 Record: 11-2

11. Nebraska Cornhuskers

Hello, Big Ten.

The Huskers enter the 2011 season with some pretty lofty expectations—and with good reason.

The defense has its swagger back and is a very good team against the pass, and quarterback Taylor Martinez is extremely versatile, and can score points in a hurry, when he stays on the field.

However, the conference did the Huskers no favors when it scheduled their inaugural slate of games in the Big Ten.

They must face Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan on the road, and also tangle with Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa and Northwestern in Lincoln.

It's hard to get a read on how well they will do in the Big Ten, where teams tend to run more pro-style offenses as opposed to the spread themes Big 12 teams like to incorporate.

2011 Record: 10-3

10. Wisconsin Badgers

The injury bug has bitten the Badgers pretty hard in the first week and a half of practice, but none of those has been season ending to this point.

Even so, they should be one of the favorites to take the Big Ten.

Quarterback Russell Wilson was a star at NC State, and in Paul Chryst's offense his numbers should be excellent.

Chris Borland is back at his linebacker position and, along with Mike Taylor, should help make that position the position of strength on the defense.

The schedule is certainly manageable, with the biggest challenges coming at Ohio State and Michigan State in October.

Consecutive Rose Bowl bids?

2011 Prediction: 12-1

9. Texas A&M Aggies

Beyond all the rumors and speculation swirling around Texas A&M's possible move to the SEC, there waits a very good team ready to take the field for the 2011 season.

Quarterback Ryan Tannehill made huge strides toward the end of last season, and the passing game will be very good with Jeff Fuller on the receiving end.

Christine Michael and Cyrus Gray form one of the top rushing duos in the country, and Mike Sherman has assembled a very stout defensive unit.

The Aggies will have a tough time with Arkansas, as well as Oklahoma State, and a trip to Norman could prove their undoing.

But either way, Aggie fans should be pleased with the direction this program is heading.

2011 Record: 9-3

8. Oklahoma State Cowboys

This offense is scary good.

But will it be as effective without mastermind Dana Holgorsen?

And what about the defense? Can it even come remotely close to the level of play the offense will bring to the field?

The schedule is a bit tricky, with road trips to a dangerous Tulsa squad and Texas A&M in back-to-back weeks, as well as a trip to Missouri.

The 'Pokes' tangle with Oklahoma in "Bedlam" could be for a BCS berth.

2011 Record: 9-3

7. Boise State Broncos

Kellen Moore is back, as is running back Doug Martin, and the core of an outstanding offensive line.

However, offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin is gone, as are Moore's favorite targets, Titus Young and Austin Pettis.

Moore will still get his numbers, but it will be interesting to see how well the Broncos do against a little tougher level of competition.

TCU is not alone as a challenger to Boise's MWC supremacy, as both Air Force and San Diego State have squads that are quite capable of winning the conference.

One other area of concern is in the secondary, where three starters are gone, but a solid defensive line that can produce pressure should help cover any inadequacies the secondary may reveal.

2011 Record: 10-2

6. Stanford Cardinal

David Shaw takes over for Jim Harbaugh and finds himself with a plethora of weapons to employ in his first season.

Chris Owusu is back from injury and will help spread the field for Andrew Luck in the passing game, while stand-out running back Stepfan Taylor returns and will be pushing the 1,500-yard mark by season's end.

The offensive line, while not as dominating as last season, will be effective.

All that is great, but the biggest plus the Cardinal have in their favor is the schedule.

Their two toughest competitors are likely to be Oregon and Notre Dame, and they get to host both of them.

2011 Record: 11-2

5. Florida State Seminoles

The Seminoles have a wealth of talent all over the field.

From defensive end Brandon Jenkins to quarterback E.J. Manuel, this team is loaded with stars.

In a weak ACC there are very few teams that will challenge their dominance in 2011.

The one date all eyes are focusing on is Sept. 17 when they host the top-ranked Oklahoma Sooners.

Cornerbacks Greg Reid and Xavier Rhodes will have the opportunity to prove they are the best tandem in the country against the Sooners' vaunted passing attack.

With the experience and depth Jimbo Fisher's squad can field, it's a very real possibility they may be the first ACC team to reach the BCS title game since their own title berth in 2000. 

2011 Record: 13-0

4. LSU Tigers

The SEC has been unchallenged atop the college football landscape for the past five seasons.

It's likely that run could continue this season, and the best team in the SEC will be LSU.

The Tigers have playmakers on both sides of the ball, and a quarterback with more experience than any other starter in the SEC West.

While they must travel to Alabama, and tangle with Oregon in Week 1, Les Miles has to be happy about his chances in both of those meetings.

The key game on their schedule is a tangle with West Virginia.

The Mountaineers put a scare into the Tigers last season at home, and this year it's at WVU.

2011 Record: 12-1

3. Oregon Ducks

The Ducks are overrated.

It's that simple.

The lines on both sides of the ball just have too many holes. The offensive line lost five guys from the rotation and may have trouble filling those gaps. The defense lost three starters, but there are pretty capable guys ready to step in.

The real area of concern for the Ducks should be linebacker, where they are extremely inexperienced.

LaMichael James and Darron Thomas may both be legit Heisman candidates, but without a solid o-line, even those guys will struggle.

2011 Record: 10-2

2. Alabama Crimson Tide

Yes, the Tide have talent, but talent without experience on offense can come back to bite you.

The losses Alabama suffered to key positions on offense are not ones that are easily filled.

Trent Richardson has some talent, as does A.J. McCarron, but last season the Tide couldn't navigate through the SEC schedule, even with championship winners and a Heisman winner on the field.

The defense is going to be excellent, but don't be surprised when the Tide slip up due to a turnover at a key juncture in a tight SEC battle.

2011 Record: 10-2

1. Oklahoma Sooners

The linebacker position looked like the strongest unit the Sooners had a the end of last season.

However, the tragic death of Austin Box, coupled with Travis Lewis' injury means they will face an explosive Florida State squad Sept. 17 with some questions at linebacker.

Their replacements might be talented, but the leadership qualities will not be there.

Besides all that, Landry Jones sucks away from Norman. He is 4-5 in true road games, with a 17-15 touchdown to interception ratio in those games.

For those of you expecting to see a repeat of last season's beat-down of Florida State, think again.

It's on the road.

2011 Record: 10-2