2011 NFL Predictions: Why the Cincinnati Bengals Will Be Better Than Expected

Living roughly 20 minutes away from Cincinnati my entire life, I've heard every criticism of a football team that can be made. Some have implied that the 2011 campaign will be just as bad as some of the Bengals teams of the 1990's.

Really, though, are the Bengals that bad?

When you look at some of the changes the Bengals have made, fans outside of Cincinnati will understand those comparisons. On paper, the 2011 Bengals are a laughing stock and may just give the 2008 Detroit Lions a run. 

However, the Bengals had a very good draft and have players who are due to break out. Instead of old Bengals teams, let's compare them to the 2009 Falcons.

That's a high bar, but see the comparisons: a rookie quarterback thrown to the sharks, receivers on the verge of being stars and a defense that is in no way bad.

These Bengals are on a mission to prove something to the critics, and they've got a lot of talent working on that mission.

Strong Rookies

According to NFL.com, here's the list of positions the Bengals needed in the 2011 draft: quarterback, safety, linebacker, defensive lineman, running back, wide receiver.

They drafted all except for a linebacker, and I'm not going to count the running back because he was a seventh-round compensatory selection. 

A.J. Green was their first pick with the fourth overall selection, and he was one of the best receivers in the draft! Green's got breakaway speed, and in his 27 starts at Georgia, he had 23 touchdowns. At 6'4", he's a big target and has above-average hands.

Cincinnati also added Ryan Whalen out of Stanford with their sixth-round pick. Whalen's draft stock was highly altered by injuries, and he's by no means bad. He has the strength and the speed to be decent—he won't be a Hall of Fame receiver, but the Bengals got a steal with him still hanging around in Round 6. Whalen adds depth to a very young Bengals receiving corps.

Dontay Moch (DT) and Robert Sands (FS) add versatility to a good defense in the Queen City. Sands is in a crowded secondary, so he will only appear in situational moments.

Moch is something very special. He had some of the best times at the combine for a player of his size and position. Some experts will tell you he's got some of the most natural athleticism the draft had to offer. Moch's not the biggest DL/LB taken, but he's certainly shown potential to be a terror for offenses.

New Offensive Coordinator

Jay Gruden had a lot of success in the Arena League, which is where most of his experience lies. He was 93-61 as a head coach.

In the NFL, Jay was an offensive assistant under his brother, John, for the Super Bowl-winning Buccaneers in 2003. A lot have argued that his experience in Tampa Bay is curved because he had the genius of his brother to watch over him.

Jay has shown success running the show, though.  Yes, that was in the Arena Football League, but that's still running the show.

He is a large improvement over Cincinnati's previous offensive coordinator, Bob Bratkowski. Bratkowski had been the coordinator since 2001, and found success in 2005 and 2009, but made awful play-calling mistakes throughout his entire tenure.

Jay brings a new identity to a young offense, one that is the youngest in the NFL. Bratkowski was predictable—first down, run; second down, run; third down (with roughly six-eight yards to go), dump pass. It was rare to see any kind of risky play.

Jay is working with a young offense that has every capability of shocking the league. He's lost guys who were once top-notch offensive weapons, but he's in a situation where half of his guys are stepping in to Paul Brown Stadium for the first or second time. 

There's a lot of work to do, and if Jay's mind is anything like John's, this offense will have enough muster to win some ball games.

Above-Average Defense

The recent additions of defenders Nate Clements and Manny Lawson somewhat make up for the loss of Johnathan Joseph. The Bengals certainly lost their best overall tool on defense by letting Joseph walk to Houston.

Clements has long been one of the better corners in football, amassing 706 tackles and 33 interceptions in his nine-year career. His numbers decreased after leaving Buffalo for San Francisco, but that's been largely due to a few injuries in 2008 and 2009. Clements is quick off the snap and has the speed to keep up with any receiver in the league.

Manny Lawson was also recently signed, and he joins Rey Maualuga and Keith Rivers as a linebacker. Maualuga and Rivers have had a great couple seasons together, combining for 152 tackles in 2010.  Add in Lawson, who had an astounding 2006 combine. 

Unfortunately, Lawson has been inconsistent. His best season came in 2009 when he had 68 tackles, 6.5 sacks and three forced fumbles. He comes to town with a better defensive coordinator in Mike Zimmer, thus presenting him with the ultimate opportunity to break out in 2011.

The Bengals have a crowded and talented defensive line, a problem most teams would kill for. Carlos Dunlap enters his second year after a stellar 9.5-sack 2010 season as a defensive end. Robert Geathers and Domata Peko bring experience to the Bengals, having worked together effectively in the Queen City since 2006.

The biggest question marks lie in nose tackles Tank Johnson and Pat Sims. Both men are competing for a starting spot on the defensive line, and Sims is also battling injury. They have the talent to get past O-lines to get to passers and rushers, but neither have come through thus far.

There's no doubt the Bengals have the help they need on offense, and Mike Zimmer is one of the better defensive coordinators.

The Offense Is Young and Rebuilt

Andy Dalton, Ryan Whalen and A.J. Green are certainly the three men who bring the rookie flare to this young and explosive offense. However, I've made my point about the rookies on this team.

The man in the image is Jerome Simpson, and if you're not a Bengals fan, I doubt you know who he is.  Simpson was taken in the second round of the 2008 NFL Draft out of Coastal Carolina. He was largely ineffective up until the final two games of 2010.

Simpson showed promise, and a lot of it.  In Week 16 against the Chargers, Simpson caught six balls for 124 yards and two touchdowns. The following week against the Ravens, he really busted out by catching 12 passes for 123 yards and another touchdown.

He has 21 career catches—those two games showed he's finally ready to play and be a top-notch receiver.

Jay Gruden also has Andre Caldwell and Jordan Shipley to groom into young stud receivers, and both have shown the capabilities. Jermaine Gresham had a good showing as a rookie in 2010, boasting 52 catches and four touchdowns.

Part of the success of the 2009 playoff season for Cincinnati was the running game, which seems to have disappeared from the conversation recently. Cedric Benson has been re-signed and is coming off back-to-back seasons rushing for more than 1,100 yards. He's scored 14 touchdowns between 2009 and 2010 combined.

Benson still has some gas left in the tank, and he will be splitting time with the young Bernard Scott.  Up to now, Scott has shown his best abilities to be in the special teams game, but that's because he really hasn't had many touches playing running back. Scott carries the speed of the backfield, and Benson is good for power. 

Once again, the expectations are low, but the potential is certainly there. A lot of the season hinges on the progression of Andy Dalton, who has Rookie of the Year talent.

The Circus Has Left Town

You'll notice that these two clowns have not been mentioned this entire show.

Bonnie and Clyde.

Batman and Robin.

They forgot one—loud and louder.

Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco have left Cincinnati, and that's the best thing that could have happened to the team. The T.Ocho show was old even before the season started.

There's no doubting their abilities, but Owens is past his prime, and everyone knew it before 2010 ever began. Ochocinco definitely left his mark in Cincinnati during his tenure, but he recently became a sideshow. When he was teamed up with Owens, it got out of hand.

Then, there was a third member to join the circus—Carson Palmer.

His 2005 season was one to remember, as he led the Bengals to their first playoff appearance since 1990.

In the blink of an eye, Kimo "The Assassin" Von Oelhoffen destroyed Palmer.

He's never been the same. Granted, he's had up-and-down seasons, but Palmer was never as effective as he was that season. His delivery changed and his ability to maneuver in the pocket disappeared. 

Essentially, Palmer played scared when any pressure was applied. Once his accuracy went, Cincinnati began giving up on him. Palmer has since retired.

With these three guys out of Cincinnati, the Bengals are better. 

Are they young and inexperienced? No doubt about it.

Again, I point you to the similarities between the 2011 Bengals and 2009 Falcons. The Bengals could be this year's sleeper team.