NFL: Predicting the Division Winners of 2011

Every year in the NFL there's a sizable change in the teams that make the playoffs.

Look at 2010 for example. Of the 12 teams that made the playoffs, five were not in the playoffs in 2009.

Of the eight division winners in 2010, five had not won their division in 2009.

With the NFL being an ever-changing landscape due to the draft, free agency, the salary cap and the rather leveled playing field that most teams in the NFL are at, there is little doubt that 2011 will be much like 2010 was and how the NFL has been for the past decade: lots of parity.

It's part of the reason why the NFL is so great and the most popular pro sports league in the United States.

So the question begs, just who are going to be the division winners of 2011?

AFC East: New England Patriots

This division is only slightly different when you compare it to last year.

I say that because last year, the New York Jets were the popular pick by everybody to win the division, whereas everybody picked the New England Patriots to begin a steep decline.

That was far from what happened.

Going into this year, there really is no favorite. If you polled NFL fans today, they would probably be 50/50 on who wins the AFC East this year: the New England Patriots or the New York Jets.

The New York Jets have kept their roster from last year largely intact. Having re-signed one of the top CBs in the league in Antonio Cromartie after flirting with signing one of the top two CBs in the league in Asomugha, signing what is possibly a hidden gem in Plaxico Burress and re-signing Santonio Holmes, even with the possible loss of Braylon Edwards, the Jets still remain a top tier team in the AFC.

The Patriots, on the other hand, have not only kept their roster from last year largely intact, but have also added to it with the new additions of Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth. Ochocinco, although obviously not the threat that Moss was, will be able to stretch the field a bit and open up the underneath routes for Welker, who struggled a bit last year when compared to his career numbers in New England due to being the new focal point of the offense. Haynesworth was one of the top defensive linemen in the league before signing with Washington.

I sense that the Patriots will once again win this division. The Patriots are the best team in the league, and having been knocked off by the Jets in the divisional playoffs in 2010, and experiencing a rather lackluster era of playoff disappointments since winning their last Super Bowl in 2004, I see the Patriots being extra motivated this year to come out on top.

As for the Dolphins and Bills, well, maybe next year.

Final division standings: Patriots, Jets, Dolphins, Bills

AFC North: Baltimore Ravens

The North, like the East, is a two-team division. And because of these two teams, it is one hell of a division.

The Ravens-Steelers rivalry is one of the top rivalries in the NFL today. In recent years, the rivalry has escalated because the teams have met in the AFC Championship game twice over the past three years, with the Steelers coming out on top both years.

Ravens QB Joe Flacco is in his fourth seasons and is quickly entrenching himself as one of the better QBs in the NFL. The Ravens, having gotten rid of Willis McGahee, still form one of the top running games in the league with the versatile Ray Rice and Pro Bowl FB/occasional RB Leron McClain.

The Ravens, led by old stalwart Ray Lewis, had the third best defense in the NFL last year.

Although the Steelers return most of their main pieces from last year, with the exception of their former starting tackles Max Starks and Flozell Adams, I can't see them overtaking the Ravens for the division this season.

With the Steelers getting the better part of the Ravens for the past three years (Bengals won the North in 2009), leading to two Super Bowl appearances and a Super Bowl victory, and with the AFC Championship game of 2010 where there were a few controversial calls that impacted the outcome of the game, I fully expect the Ravens to slightly edge the Steelers for the North in 2011.

It might come down to a tiebreaker or a one-game lead, but it'll sure as hell be a battle to the end.

The Bengals and the Browns have major problems but, oddly, the Browns seem to be the more stable franchise at the moment.

The Browns are dead set at starting Colt McCoy after releasing Delhomme, and McCoy didn't look bad starting in his rookie year.

The Bengals, on the other hand, are going with Bruce Gradkowski at QB until rookie second-round draft pick Andy Dalton is ready to take the job. The Bengals also traded franchise WR Chad Ochocinco after 10 years with the team, already proclaiming high hopes for rookie first-round pick, A.J. Green.

Ravens win the division, Steelers likely get a wild card berth, Browns finish third, Bengals fans cry.

AFC South: Indianapolis Colts

This is a tricky division. Obviously since the division re-alignment in 2002, the Colts have reigned supreme in this division. Out of the nine years the AFC South has existed, the Colts have won the division eight out of the nine times.

This year won't be any different. But it'll be a lot harder than any other year the Colts have won the South.

The Titans can be thrown out of the picture. They're not going to contend for this division any time soon.

The Jaguars, although a decent team with one of the top RBs in the NFL in Maurice Jones-Drew, will not take that next step forward until they finally develop/find a QB (they're hoping it's Gabbert) to lead the team and not a caretaker who hasn't had a true quality season since 2007.

The division is between the Colts and the Texans.

The Colts, having regressed from 2009, finished 10-6 last year as Manning arguably had his worst (although still a good season) season since 2001, as he suffered through a nagging injury and his team was once again hurt by injures (Garcon was never really fully healthy in 2010; same goes for Addai).

The defense was a problem, finishing 23rd in points allowed, after finishing eighth in 2009.

The Texans were a trendy pick to win the division after their Week 1 upset of the Colts. What followed was painful loss after painful loss, and the Texans couldn't wait for the season to be over. Five of their 10 losses was by a TD or less.

This division will be the most competitive it's ever been. The Texans will split with the Colts in their head to head meetings. The division will likely come down to the Colts-Texans Week 16 matchup on Thursday night.

The division winner will finish with no better than 11 wins. Don't expect another 12-win season by the Colts this year.

Final division standings: Colts, Texans, Jaguars, Titans

AFC West: San Diego Chargers

The worst division in the AFC? That might be the West.

With the Broncos likely to experience another below-.500 year, and the Raiders having fired their head coach who led them to their first .500 season since 2002, the division is clearly between two teams, as is the entire AFC.

This isn't hard for me to pick, as I made an article talking about this very thing about a month ago—the Chargers will win this division.

The Chiefs had everything go their way in 2010, becoming one of the least turnover-prone teams in NFL history (remind you of the 2008 Dolphins?) and the Chargers suffering from a huge amount of injuries along with off-the-field contract holdouts in top LT Marcus McNeill and top WR Vincent Jackson.

The Chiefs got demolished by the Chargers in Week 14 in their last matchup, 31-0, as the Chargers won seven of their last nine games.

The Chiefs finished last season on a sour note, losing blowout games to the Raiders in Week 17 and the Ravens in the playoffs.

Chiefs fans are going to hate me for this, but Matt Cassel is an average QB who had his weaknesses masked by a great offensive coordinator in Charlie Weiss, and by an excellent running game. Any time the team needs him to win the game and carry the team on his back, Cassel cannot do it. Look at the Ravens game that exposed many of his glaring flaws. It'll be exposed big time this year and Cassel will not have a Pro Bowl year like 2010.

The Chargers win this division in 2011, and it won't even be close.

Final division standings: Chargers, Chiefs, Broncos, Raiders

NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles

Looking at the NFC, the NFC has three tough divisions. Really tough divisions.

The East is a perfect example of that.

With the exception of the often-mediocre Redskins, every team in this division has a legit shot at winning.

The Eagles, now the favorite of the East heading into 2011, has had by far the best offseason of any NFL team.

They've signed/acquired Nnamdi Asomugha—at the worst, the second best CB in the league—Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Jarrad Page, Jason Babin, Ryan Harris and Ronnie Brown.

Do you wanna know what all of those guys had in common in 2010? They were all starters.

With the exception of Ronnie Brown, all of these guys are relatively young and/or at the peak of their careers. Jason Babin had a Pro Bowl season in 2010.

The Eagles will be contested by the usual suspects, the Giants and the Cowboys.

The Giants are overshadowed by the Eagles, especially with the offseason moves, but they remain a top threat in the NFC. Had it not been for one of the biggest collapses of the season, when they blew a several possession lead over the Eagles, we might be talking about the Giants more often.

The Giants still have a very good QB-RB duo, with Eli Manning emerging as a Top 10 QB and Ahmad Bradshaw becoming a Top 10 RB last season.

The defense was a problem last year, ranking 17th, and may continue being a problem this season, with no major moves being made as of this writing.

The Cowboys had a down year in 2010, with the collarbone injury of Tony Romo, leading to a 6-10 year largely started by Jon Kitna.

In what will be Tony Romo's make or break season (seriously this time), the Cowboys need to make the playoffs and at least win a playoff game.

If the Cowboys experience another season of missing the playoffs, barring a record breaking year by Romo, it's safe to say the Cowboys will be looking for their future franchise QB in 2012 as Romo is 31 years old.

The Redskins, well, they're starting John Beck. Enough said.

Expect the division to turn out something like this: Eagles, Giants, Cowboys, Redskins.

NFC North: Green Bay Packers

This division will be a lot more interesting compared to last year.

The Packers and Bears will brawl for the division title, but do not count out the Vikings. And hell, the Lions might be decent again this year.

A division that was average in 2009, with the Vikings reigning supreme, the Packers as a Wild Card and the Bears and the Lions as clear below-.500 teams, has turned into maybe the strongest division in all of the NFL from top to bottom.

The Vikings, with the acquisition of Donovan McNabb, may become a playoff team again this season. After the disastrous season of 2010 that saw Brett Favre hobble every week on the field looking every bit the 41-year-old that he is, and the firing of five-year head coach Brad Childress, it is often forgotten this team was one idiotic INT away from reaching the Super Bowl in 2009.

Yes, they have lost Sidney Rice, their top WR. Look at the Bears though—their receiving core is terrible (yes, I know Knox is a decent receiver) and they got all the way to the NFC Championship game.

This team, with the exception of Ray Edwards and Sidney Rice, is largely the same team that you saw in 2009 and was supposed to be a Super Bowl favorite heading in 2010.

That doesn't mean I'm picking the Vikings to win the division.

You ever get this feeling that the Packers are one of the most underrated defending Super Bowl Champions of recent history? A lot of people are picking them to again make it back to the Super Bowl, but it just feels as if they're unappreciated. Maybe this is due to the lockout, maybe this is due to the Eagles offseason frenzy, but compared to the Steelers of 2008 and Saints of 2009, it doesn't feel like the Packers get as much love as they should.

That'll work in their favor this year, as the Eagles will garner most of the attention from the media on the NFC side in 2011, as the Packers quietly remain one of the top two teams in the NFC for much of the regular season.

The Packers will have a great year, the Vikings will have a decent year, the Bears won't be as good as they were in 2010, as Cutler regresses slightly, and the Lions have a decent, below-.500 year in a really tough division.

Final division standings: Packers, Vikings, Bears, Lions

NFC South: Atlanta Falcons

This is a tough division. You can legitimately pick three different teams to win, and I don't think most people would have a problem with it.

And no, the Carolina Panthers are not one of those teams.

Expect something along the lines of this to happen: The Falcons once again prove they're one of the most balanced teams in the NFL with Matt Ryan and Michael Turner, the Bucs have another season around 10 wins, the Saints have a decent year but regress as Drew Brees continues to have another 4,000 yard, 30 TD season, and the Panthers, well, you get to see Cam Newton. And Jimmy Clausen. And Derek Anderson. And maybe even Tony Pike.

The Falcons will avenge their blowout loss to the Packers from the playoffs and will come out motivated this year. With the drafting of minuscule Jacquizz Rodgers, expect Turner to take a little bit less of a beating as Rodgers spells him and possibly becomes the third down back, becoming a Darren Sproles-like spark plug.

Expect Roddy White and Julio Jones to become maybe the best WR duo in all of the NFL next season. Expect Julio Jones to catch a lot of TDs next year, becoming the red zone target the Falcons desperately needed.

The Bucs will have another good season, possibly even making it as a Wild Card, with Freeman continuing to grow as a QB, the young defense continuing to blossom and Legarrette Blount having a top-10 season at RB.

The Saints will regress, as it'll be similar to their 2007 and 2008 seasons following their Cinderella 2006 run, but that won't be without Drew Brees and the Saints offense putting up a show every single week.

Final division standings: Falcons, Bucs, Saints, Panthers

NFC West: Arizona Cardinals

You know how the AFC West is the worst division in the AFC? You already know where I'm going with this.

This division will be terrible again in 2011, just not as terrible.

The Cardinals have improved vastly with the addition of Kevin Kolb and the subtraction of Derek Anderson.

Even with the loss of such a quality No. 2 receiver in Steve Breaston, Kolb will have Larry Fitzgerald to throw the ball to and, needless to say, they're going to destroy NFC West defenses.

Every team in the NFC West ranked below the average for passing defense in 2010.

The Rams will continue to improve, Bradford will have a much better 2011 than 2010 and the Rams will battle neck and neck with the Cardinals for the entire season.

The division winner will finish with no better than a 10-6 record.

The reigning NFC West champion Seattle Seahawks will struggle through a season of quarterback turmoil with Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst. The running game will struggle; don't expect Marshawn Lynch to have a great season.

The Niners will have another downtrodden season. Alex Smith will start, be replaced by Kaepernick midway through the season, Gore will continue terrorizing defenses, Crabtree will continue putting up mediocre stats due to the QB situation, and the defense will remain mediocre.

Final division standings: Cardinals, Rams, Niners, Seahawks