Understanding Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain's All-Star Selections for What They Are

Let’s play a little game, shall we? Below are the statistical lines of 10 starting pitchers, eight of whom were selected to the 2011 National League All-Star team. Can you name the two lines that belong to pitchers who were NOT named to the squad?

#    W-L           ERA        K             CG          SHO                       IP            WHIP     Run Support

1.    11-3          2.44          131         6              0                              136.1     1.03        5.55

2.    10-4          2.40          115         1              0                              124         0.95        4.35

3.     9-6           2.92          128         4              4                              129.1     1.08        4.66

4.     11-3         1.89            63         2              1                              104.2     1.06        5.16

5.     8-4           3.23          138         3              2                              122.2     1.06        5.43

6.     6-1           2.13            68         1              1                              84.1        1.15        N/A

7.     7-5           3.22          101         1              0                              120.1     1.09        4.26

8.     6-7           3.14          126         1              1                              117.1     1.19        4.68

9.    10-4          2.52          103         0              0                              96.1        1.04        5.70

10.    8-3          3.38          103         1              1                              122.1     1.14        5.81

Did you guess? Now here are the names that these lines match up to:

1.            Roy Halladay      --             Philadelphia Phillies        --             ALL-STAR

2.            Cole Hamels       --             Philadelphia Phillies        --             ALL-STAR

3.            Cliff Lee              --             Philadelphia Phillies        --             ALL-STAR

4.            Jair Jurrjens        --             Atlanta Braves                 --             ALL-STAR

5.            Clayton Kershaw --            Los Angeles  Dodgers       --             ALL-STAR

6.            Ryan Vogelsong  --             San Francisco Giants       --             ALL-STAR

7.            Matt Cain            --             San Francisco Giants       --             ALL-STAR

8.            Tim Lincecum     --             San Francisco Giants       --             ALL-STAR

9.            Tommy Hanson   --             Atlanta Braves                 --             X

10.          Ian Kennedy      --             Arizona Diamondbacks       --             X

If you got this right—and DIDN’T already know the statistics ahead of time—this article is not for you.

I have read quite a few articles over the past few days regarding Bruce Bochy’s selection of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Ryan Vogelsong to the All-Star Team.

I have read various Pirates, Braves, and Diamondbacks articles deriding the San Francisco Giants’ manager for selecting three of his own pitchers with his discretionary picks while ignoring other pitchers (like Hanson and Kennedy).

I have also read articles praising Bruce Bochy for making the “right choices.”

For the record, as a Giants fan and as a baseball fan, I have absolutely no problem with Bruce Bochy’s All-Star selections.

That being said, I would be hard pressed to look at the above statistical lines of Tim Lincecum and Tommy Hanson and finding any justification for Lincecum’s inclusion in the All-Star Game ahead of Hanson. Matt Cain over Ian Kennedy? There is a valid discussion to be had there as well.

The statistic that bothers me the most—and seems to be the “fall back” statistic for Giants fans—is the “win/loss” record. There seems to be a misconception going around Major League Baseball in this age of Sabermetrics and obscure statistics such as ERA+ and xFIP that a pitcher’s “win/loss” record is not significant.

Fans that quibble about Lincecum and Cain’s substandard “win/loss” record are quick to point out the lack of run support both starters receive.

As is proven above, both Cliff Lee (9-6) and Cole Hamels (10-4) receive less run support than Tim Lincecum (6-7). Matt Cain (7-5) receives the lowest run support of the All-Star brigade, but not by a sizable margin.

If Lincecum and Cain were performing up to the level of either of these Philadelphia pitchers, odds are good that their records would be much better. Meanwhile, Ian Kennedy (left off the roster) sports a record of 8-3.

By measure of ERA, Lincecum (3.14) and Cain (3.22) have the highest ERAs of all NL All-Star pitchers outside of Clayton Kershaw (3.23).

Tommy Hanson, who was left off the roster, has a substantially better ERA (2.52) than either Tim Lincecum or Matt Cain.

Ryan Vogelsong (2.13) sports a spectacular ERA, but has thrown only two-thirds the innings of the Philadelphia aces.

WHIP? CG? Shutouts? Strikeouts? These are glamorous statistics, to be sure, but let’s understand them for what they are.

Nolan Ryan, the most unhittable (career H/9) pitcher in history, had an unspectacular WHIP due to the amount of walks he issued. Complete games are a rarity this day and age, as they are often more indicative of a substandard bullpen than of pitching dominance and durability.

Both Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain would have more complete games were it not for their privilege of pitching with one of the most dominating bullpens in the game. Consequently, they would have more shutouts as well.

Strikeouts are a very sexy statistic, but at the end of the day a ground ball double play is often preferable to a strikeout.

I have not examined Brian Wilson as he was voted in by the players. I also chose not to focus on Ryan Vogelsong because by most metrics (except for innings pitched), he undeniably qualifies statistically as an “All-Star.”

I am also not saying that Tim Lincecum or Matt Cain are undeserving of being All-Stars. Statistically, one could argue that they are as deserving as Ian Kennedy or Tommy Hanson. It might not be a particularly strong argument, but it could be presented.

My point is that one could effectively argue—especially with Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain—that there were, how shall I say, more “conventionally appropriate” selections Bochy could have made.

Lincecum and Cain are simply not where any of the Philadelphia or Atlanta pitchers are statistically, so they must be viewed as “fringe selections”—which they indeed were, as evidenced by their absence from the player ballots.

So why did Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain make the All-Star team? Because Bruce Bochy won the World Series with these two horses leading the way.

Is it biased? Of course.

Is it wrong? No, because both pitchers are bona fide stars, and it is Bochy’s prerogative to make his discretionary picks.

But let’s not kid ourselves.

Lincecum and Cain are not having the types of seasons that leap off the page as All-Stars. I think it is very important to view these selections as what they are: respect picks for an incredible job last postseason.

Neither pitcher is pitching up to their true "All-Star" capabilities. We have to hope that they can be more consistently excellent after the break.

But Bruce Bochy does have every right to include these pitchers on the team.